Five Players on the Hot Seat To Lose Their MLB Spots
We are almost three weeks into the season, and there are already players on the hot seat who are at risk of losing their jobs.
It is early, we are almost three weeks into the season now. Despite that, there are players who are already on the hot seat and in danger of losing their spots on the big league roster.
While this may seem like an overreaction, baseball has always been a “what have you done for me lately” kind of sport. The crop talent in the minors is strong, with plenty of young players chomping at the bit and looking to take advantage of any major league action.
When fringe players struggle, it can be really easy to lose patience. When you are clearly replaceable, you need to show up every day. If you don’t, it will not take long for your replacement to get a chance.
Here are five players in Major League Baseball whose seats are warming quickly. Some of them probably only have another week or so to prove that they belong in their current role. If they don’t perform, we could see them relegated to the bench or minor leagues.
Stats and rankings taken prior to play on April 11.
Ceddanne Rafaela, OF – Boston Red Sox
Hot Seat Meter: 5/10
2025 Stats: .202/.279/.205, 0 XBH, 2 SB, 42 wRC+, 3 DRS, 2 OAA
This is one that has been talked about on the Just Baseball Show. Ceddanne Rafaela has not gotten off to the greatest of starts in 2025. If you couple that with his performances from the last two seasons, patience could be wearing thin with regards to Rafaela starting every day.
In what was his first full MLB season last year, Rafaela was fairly disappointing at the plate. A 79 wRC+ left a lot to be desired. He does not have a clear standout trait on offense. While he has decent speed, he struggles to get on base.
His 43 extra-base hits did rank 105th in baseball last year. It was more than both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Adley Rutschman. However, the low average and low OBP make it harder to appreciate them.
While the offense is underwhelming, Rafaela’s best trait is his glove. In 2024, he split time evenly between shortstop and center field. He found a home in center where he is a Gold Glove-level defender.
Last season, he posted 12 defensive runs saved, which ranked fifth among center fielders with at least 600 innings. Mind you that Rafaela accumulated those numbers in only 630 innings. Most of the players in the top 10 played at least 800 innings in center.
While the glove is giving him more runway, it could be short lived. Just Baseball’s No. 1 prospect, Roman Anthony, is waiting in Triple-A for his big league opportunity. Anthony is off to a solid start to the year and could force the Red Sox’s hand soon. He currently has a 138 wRC+ with two home runs.
When Anthony is ultimately called up, Rafaela will likely become the fourth outfielder for the Red Sox.
Chris Paddack, SP – Minnesota Twins
Hot Seat Meter: 8/10
2025 Stats: 2 GS, 7.1 IP, 14.73 ERA, 9.66 FIP, 4.91 K/9, 7.36 BB/9
Thanks in large part to his competition struggling during spring training, Chris Paddack won the battle for the fifth spot in the Twins’ rotation. David Festa seemed to be the favorite for the spot before posting an ERA north of 11 in the spring. Zebby Matthews was another option, and while he posted a strong spring, the Twins opted to send him to Triple-A.
Paddack has been very hard to watch this season. He gave up nine runs in three innings against the White Sox in his first start. That also included giving up three home runs and issuing four walks. His next start against the Astros was better, as he allowed three runs in four innings.
For Paddack, his second start has bought him some time. If he can manage to put together a solid outing next time out, he might be able to buy himself some more time. However, if he puts up another outing like he did in Chicago, the Twins may make the call.
Both Matthews and Festa have been solid so far this season. Festa has made a great start and a bad start thus far. His first start was five innings of shutout baseball with four strikeouts. In the second start, he gave up five earned in just three innings.
Matthews has thrown 10 innings through his first two starts and allowed just two earned. He has also struck out 13 while only walking one. Also, his velocity is up from last year. He sat 95 mph with his four-seam last year compared to 97 mph in Triple-A this year.
Both Festa and Matthews are options to replace Paddack if he continues to struggle. Paddack should really be feeling that seat getting warm now. Especially if Matthews continues to throw like this, we could see Paddack move to the bullpen soon.
Rhys Hoskins, 1B – Milwaukee Brewers
Hot Seat Meter: 3/10
2025 Stats: .161/.289/.161, 0 HR, 6 BB, 10 K, 43 wRC+
The seat is probably only lukewarm for Rhys Hoskins at the moment. That is due to the lack of alternative options the Brewers have at first base right now. Regardless of that, Hoskins has been a far cry from the Philadelphia version of himself.
Since arriving in Milwaukee last year, it has been a bit of a struggle. Including his slow start to this season, he has a 99 wRC+ while hitting .213/.305/.406 with 26 home runs. This is not the middle-of-the-order power bat that Milwaukee was hoping for.
This has been a relatively steep regression for Hoskins. In six seasons with the Phillies, Hoskins averaged a 126 wRC+ and never posted one under 112. He also averaged 36 home runs per 162 games played. By those standards, his performance thus far in Milwaukee has been underwhelming.
If this continues, the Brewers could be faced with a tough decision to make. In a relatively wide-open division, they are going to need more production from this spot in the lineup.
Tyler Black, Just Baseball’s No. 95 prospect, would likely be that option at first base. Currently on the IL, he is expected to return some time in mid-May. Black struggled in 18 games in the majors last season but had a good season in Triple-A. Once back from injury, if he is hitting well in Triple-A, he could see an opportunity in the majors.
Similarly to Paddack and Rafaela, this is a relegate to the bench situation and likely nothing more than that. Black is also the only realistic option to take at bats away from Hoskins. It will probably be another month until Black can challenge Rhys for at-bats.
Miles Mikolas, SP – St. Louis Cardinals
Hot Seat Meter: 7/10
2025 Stats: 2 GS, 8 IP, 11.25 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 4.50 K/9, 3.38 BB/9
Miles Mikolas is quickly growing a target on his back when it comes to Cardinals fans. He has not had a good season since 2022, and patience in St. Louis seems to be wearing thin. Exactly like the Brewers, the Cardinals are in a wide-open division that they believe they can compete in. After not making any moves in the offseason, they look to have a solid team.
All of the additions that they are making are coming via the farm system. Victor Scott II and Jordan Walker are among those who came up and are performing. One potential addition that is currently blocked by Mikolas is Just Baseball’s No. 32 Prospect, Quinn Mathews.
Mathews is currently in Triple-A and has made two starts. Both starts have been decent. In his first, he threw four innings against Louisville. He finished with two earned runs and one strikeout. His second start was against Buffalo and lasted three and two third innings while allowing just one run, and he also struck out four.
The major concern with Mathews is the walks. He has walked nine batters through just seven and two thirds innings. He currently has a WHIP of 1.96, and that is not sustainable. I do not anticipate the command issues to continue. In 143 innings last season, he walked just three per nine across four levels.
I anticipate that Mathews will settle in over his next couple starts in Triple-A. If he strings some good starts together and Mikolas continues to struggle, the Cardinals might have to make the switch. If they don’t, there may be a mutiny in St. Louis.
Brett Baty, INF – New York Mets
Hot Seat Meter: 10/10
2025 Stats: 27 PA, .111/.111/.148, 40.7% K%, -28 wRC+
Brett Baty is unique compared to the others on this list, as he is not an established big-league piece. Baty has been what most would coin as a Quadruple-A guy. This is his fourth season getting some run in the big leagues, but he has never been able to stick.
His plate appearance totals the last three seasons have been as follows: 42, 389, 171. In those plate appearances, he has not been able to make an impact. Over those 602 plate appearances he has been good for a 72 wRC+ and -0.2 fWAR.
Unfortunately for Baty, this could be his last crack at a big-league opportunity with the Mets. He was given this opportunity with Jeff McNeil landing on the IL to start the year. As a result of the injury, Baty and Luisangel Acuña have been splitting time at second base.
One of them is likely going to stick in the majors even after McNeil comes back. Right now, Acuña has the best case. He posted a 166 wRC+ in 40 plate appearances last season. While he only has a 36 wRC+ this season, that is better than Baty’s. Acuña is also drawing walks and is a threat on the basepaths.
Baty has more at stake than anyone on this list. He is only 25 years old and is now at risk of being permanently labeled a “Quadruple-A” guy. If he doesn’t improve, he could go down and risk not being recalled unless there is another injury. The only hope Baty has right now is that the Mets won’t want to burn his final option, as well as ensure Acuña gets regular playing time.
With McNeil set to begin a rehab assignment some time in the next week, Baty needs to go on a heater soon if he wants to continue to get opportunities in the majors.
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Growing up in Baltimore and Minneapolis/St. Paul, Harrison has been around baseball his whole life. He attended Northern State University as well as Oklahoma State University…