The Diamondbacks Are in Trade Deadline Purgatory
Should the D-backs push in their chips or pack it in and sell? It's not an easy question to answer.
In 2023, the Arizona Diamondbacks were not considered a World Series frontrunner but made it there only to lose to the Rangers. An 84-win team advancing past the Brewers, Dodgers, and Phillies was unexpected and goes to show that once you get into the playoffs, anything can happen.
The 2024 season saw the D-backs win 89 games and not even make the postseason. Last year was a step back, landing at 80 wins, and the 2026 D-backs currently sit one game below .500, pacing to once again be on the outside looking in.
The past few seasons have felt like a team on the rise with unknowns that could turn into something special. However, this team does not have the same feeling.
We know what this Arizona team is. The young crop of players that started breaking out in 2023 and 2024 are now established big leaguers with a floor, and ceiling, that we know.
The next wave of young prospects is not here to give the team nearly as many what if scenarios, leaving the 2026 team feeling flat. Little untapped potential and a few veterans that aren’t giving the team the production it needs.
Even with the D-backs’ struggles, they aren’t necessarily out of the Wild Card race. For an organization that took an 84-win team to the World Series, believing in the impossible isn’t so difficult. But, is pushing their chips in and going for it the best route for the Diamondbacks? Should they pack it in and sell? The answer isn’t so simple.
Buy or Sell? The Decision That Might Already Be Made
If you ask D-backs fans if this current team is good enough to make a run, I think the majority will say no. Let’s be honest. The rotation has been a mess, the bullpen is overperforming after a bad start, and the lineup depth is a major question. Heck, Max Kepler, who is fresh off a PED suspension and an awful season, is getting regular at-bats.
I’m sure any type of model that attempts to predict the rest of the season and which direction the Diamondbacks should go would tell you that selling what they can at the deadline is the wise move. Pushing prospects out of an already shallow system in hopes of improving enough to make noise in the National League feels short-sighted and more of a Hail Mary than a calculated risk.
The problem is, pivoting to sell is not so simple. A traditional sell-at-the-deadline approach usually involves expiring contracts going out and prospects coming back. While not always a rebuild precursor, usually winning is not the top priority within the next 365 days. For the Diamondbacks, I don’t think they are there.
I expect the team to push to be competitive in 2027. The core pieces are in place, and the team trajectory is not quite bad enough to move the best players, all of whom are under contract for the foreseeable future. So, how about the expiring players?
Zac Gallen, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (’27 club option), Ryan Thompson, James McCann, Kevin Ginkel, Paul Sewald, Ildemaro Vargas, A.J. Puk, Michael Soroka, and Kepler are the primary players coming off the books at the end of the season.
Gallen has snowballed a bad 2025 into a 6.36 ERA in 2026. Gurriel has been hurt and carries a 60 wRC+. Vargas’ hot start leveled out while McCann is a replacement-level backup catcher.
Puk would have value, but he’s been hurt all season, and Soroka’s injury tanks his value, leaving Sewald and Ginkel as the only players with any trade value. I doubt they would return anything of significance.
The only way I think Arizona would get a significant return would be capitalizing on Eduardo Rodriguez‘s All-Star season, although I still have my doubts about the return being worthwhile.
Rodriguez has yo-yo’d between good and bad years throughout his career, and an injury history combined with two more years at $20 million might not make the return as luxurious as his 2.25 ERA (4.00 FIP) might indicate.
Plus, Arizona needs starters and innings. Moving one of their few proven pieces who can help the team over the next two seasons doesn’t seem likely.
Of course, Ketel Marte‘s name will come up. He’s been rumored to be available off and on, and the dynamic between him and the organization has been a bit….odd. With four seasons left on his deal at only a $15 million AAV, the return would be huge. So would the hole such a deal would make in the lineup.
If Marte is truly being shopped, I feel an offseason move would open up the list of suitors and make for a better deal for both sides.
Even if selling is the right decision, the D-backs don’t have enough moveable options that make doing so worth it. They need to decide if they should just ride it out or make a push to buy at the deadline.
Will Buying Be Worth It?
Okay, so they can’t really sell, but can they buy? To me, the biggest need is in the rotation. Rodriguez has given the Diamondbacks a major lift, but counting on him to continue at this pace is not wise. We have seen these hot stretches from Rodriguez only for him to fall back down to earth, proving himself as more of a no. 4 or 5.
Gallen is giving you nothing, Kelly is running on fumes, and Brandon Pfaadt‘s promising past two starts are hardly enough to regain confidence in his arm. If the Diamondbacks want to make a push, they will need multiple starters and not just inning eaters. Impact arms that cost prospect capital.
If you turn your attention to the lineup, you should feel comfortable with Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, Corbin Carroll, and Gabriel Moreno. Nolan Arenado is upgradable, but for now he’ll have to do. Five spots are good to go, but the rest? Yikes.
Pavin Smith producing nothing this season after being a pleasant surprise the past two years really took a toll on the lineup construction. Carlos Santana was clearly not the answer at first base, and neither is Ildemaro Vargas. Some variation of a power bat to fill first will be near the top of the needs list.
How about the outfield? Carroll has right, but center is uncertain, especially since Jordan Lawler went down with injury. Rookie Ryan Waldschmidt has yet to provide enough impact, and Gurriel’s continuous sink has stripped the lineup of a high-floor righty bat. Go ahead and add outfield to the needs list.
If you added two starters, a first baseman, and an outfielder, the current starters could push to the bench, making for a more acceptable team and one you could at least believe in. Acquiring those players might get difficult.
The Diamondbacks system is not exactly highly regarded. Various outlets have the system ranked around 15-25th in baseball, with Waldschmidt (JB No. 21) and Kayson Cunningham (JB No. 83) as the team’s only top-100 prospects on our list. Waldschmidt is likely off limits due to the outfield need and his proximity to an everyday role.
There is a group of middle infielders – Cunningham, JD Dix, and Demetrio Crisantes – who are well regarded, but the murky future of Marte and Arenado makes trading away infielders less likely. Outfielder Slade Caldwell has had a difficult year in High-A, making his trade value much lower, while the prospect arms all come with limited upside.
Simply put, the Diamondbacks do not have the high-end prospects or system depth to meet their trade deadline needs. Sure, go get Nathaniel Lowe to patch first and Aaron Civale to give you some innings, but at the end of the day, would it really be worth it?
Final Thoughts
Oftentimes the worst place to be is in between. A team without a clear direction at the deadline usually gets left without much change or added hope. Honestly, the best thing that could happen would be a big winning or losing streak to essentially determine the D-backs’ fate before the deadline arrives.
No matter how the rest of the year shakes out, this winter will be an interesting one in the desert. The core pieces are too good for this to be a rudderless team. My offseason preference would be to push forward, add more aggressively, and try to win. However, the next few months will determine the mood and direction more than anything.
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