The Tigers Relied Too Heavily on False Production From 2025
The Detroit Tigers counted on several key hitters sustaining their 2025 overperformance, and it's cost them so far in 2026.
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If you were to ask Detroit Tigers fans about the 2025 season, you will get mixed responses. Some will tell you about how one run in a 15-inning game kept them from reaching the ALCS for a chance to play for the World Series.
Others will tell you about their 28-37 post-All-Star break collapse which included a 7-17 September, fumbling the AL Central to their rival Cleveland Guardians. A stretch that many believed exposed the Tigers’ offense after an unsustainable first-half offensive explosion.
Whether you believe the glass if half full or half empty, I think we can all agree that the Tigers’ offseason was not exactly what we were expecting.
Signing Framber Valdez, Kenley Jansen, and Justin Verlander as a way to strengthen the pitching staff was not necessarily a huge surprise, but not adding a single player to the offense was. Bringing back Gleyber Torres was the only transaction that moved the needle in the lineup, and a clear message was sent from the front office: they believed this offense was good enough.
Well, the Tigers are currently 34-44, and while injuries are a major factor in that record, trusting that players would repeat career years is a large reason why the Tigers sit where they do today.
Stats were taken prior to play on June 23.
Water Is Finding Its Level
What made the Tigers successful in the first half of 2025 was certainly Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Riley Greene, and the other established players performing as expected. But, the production the team had from complementary pieces also drove the offense at times, even leading to unexpected All-Star appearances.
Do you remember that Zach McKinstry and Javier Báez were All-Stars last season? I can already tell McKinstry’s selection will soon be an answer to an obscure trivia question from your local Thursday trivia night at the watering hole down the street.
After consistently landing between a 75-85 wRC+ hitter the four seasons prior, McKinstry surprised everyone by slashing .259/.333/.438 with 12 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 114 wRC+ in 2025. His .836 first-half OPS felt like a fever dream. His production led to manager A.J. Hinch saying, “I get asked about third base all the time. I’m like, [McKinstry] made the All-Star team.”
This level of trust in McKinstry has come back to bite them. Through 53 games, McKinstry is slashing .179/.272/.272, good for a 52 wRC+. That’s beyond just bad and into unplayable territory.
Detroit does not have the number of established, no-doubt, above-average major leaguers on the roster to make up for McKinstry’s lack of production in an everyday role.
McKinstry’s 2025 season should have earned him a spot on the roster as one of the better utility options in the game. We all know injuries happen, and having an All-Star to fill in around the field would have given this team the depth they needed. Relying on him to be more than that was setting them up for failure.
How about Jahmai Jones? The career minor leaguer had cups of coffee in four seasons before joining the Tigers as a short-side platoon specialist in 2025, where he posted a .287/.387/.550 slash and 159 wRC+. It was a small sample of 150 plate appearances, but that was enough to make him a fixture on the team heading into 2026.
Well, the guy who made a living off southpaws in 2025 has slashed .167/.259/.278 with 23 strikeouts in 72 at-bats against lefties this season. He often pinch-hits when a lefty is brought in, and he currently has a .544 OPS as a pinch hitter. Considering he brings nothing defensively and cannot hit righties, it’s amazing he still has a roster spot as we near the end of June.
A player like Jones offers nothing besides hitting lefties. If he is not doing that, his value becomes zero very quickly. The front office put too much stock in his 2025 sample size, and they are still trying to prove they were right midway through the season.
Wenceel Pérez was a useful supplementary piece in 2025, hitting 13 home runs and posting a 103 wRC+. He entered the season as a depth piece in the minors, so I won’t be too hard on the organization for this one. But his .180/.246/.348 slash, 63 wRC+, and -0.5 fWAR suggest that he’s not capable of providing capable depth.
Personally, I had mocked trades with Pérez throughout the offseason. I thought the Tigers needed to capitalize on his solid 2025 season, youth, and relatively untapped potential to bring in a bullpen arm and clear an outfield spot for a higher-end option. But, they settled with what they knew.
Perhaps the most controversial one is Spencer Torkelson. A promising 2023 was followed by a 2024 season where he spent a good chunk in the minors before launching 31 home runs in 2025. He still struck out more than you would like, and the one-trick pony of only providing power and not much else was evident.
Some people love Torkelson and think he earned his spot. Others look at the larger picture and question if rolling into the season with no pivot plan was the right move. Banking on his career year to be the standard just a year after he was wearing a Charlie Brown Peanuts jersey as a Toledo Mud Hen leaves room for debate.
I could go through other players in the bullpen, or highlight the struggles Jack Flaherty has gone through, but this really comes down to the lineup. Even the biggest Tigers can could admit that this is a lineup that played above its skill level for the majority of last season before career norms started to show later in the year.
The Tigers did not address their offense in a significant way this past winter and instead, despite the glaring red flags, decided it was good enough. Now, injuries have shortened their depth, and their reliance on some of these players who were playing above their career norms in 2025 is causing the team to slip.
Final Thoughts
If you were to say I’m bickering or pointing out problems that are not the most significant to this team, I’d tell you that you were right. McKinstry, Jones, Torkelson, and others were not what was going to make or break this season.
But, the names they did not trade for or did not sign because of the faith in said players is the larger issue here.
We all knew 2026 was the last season with Tarik Skubal. Gleyber Torres, Casey Mize, and others are also set to hit free agency. Momentum had been building for two seasons leading up to this. World Series contention was not a joke but instead something that could get previously lost fans to return to Comerica.
The fans deserved more than the front office crossing its fingers and hoping for the unlikely.
Now, as the calendar nears July, the discussion around the Tigers is not driven by names they could acquire at the deadline but which ones will be shipped out.
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