The Tigers’ Season Will Be Defined in the Next Two Weeks

Take yourself back to April in Detroit. The Framber Valdez signing changed expectations heading into the new season, and the return of Justin Verlander not only changed the vibe but rebirthed fans have who ignored the team for a better part of a decade.

Not only were the Detroit Tigers AL Central favorites, but they were World Series contenders.

Fast forward to the end of May, and the discussion is about firing decision makers and deciding which top prospects could come to Detroit in exchange for Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. Injuries quickly turned a promising season back toward what Tigers fans thought they had escaped: a rebuild.

Then the calendar flipped to June. The 6-22 month of May finally ended and players began to return from lengthy IL stints to help lift the Tigers from the ashes. A road series against the American League’s best team in the Rays resulted in a surprising sweep, and the coffin went from shut to cracked.

A series win against Seattle and Minnesota built momentum, and for the first time in what felt like a century the Tigers started to look like a real baseball team.

Walk-offs, dominant pitching performances, and more competitive lineups gave life to the fan base as if they were hit with defibrillator.

Skubal is back, and Casey Mize is next to return. Despite a 29-42 record, the Tigers are showing signs of life. However, they cannot afford to sputter. With less than 50 days to the trade deadline, Detroit needs to prove they are not just better, but that they are back to what we thought they could be. And they don’t have much time to prove it.

Stats taken prior to play on June 15.

Dominate or Doom

We could discuss the reasons and sort through the excuses, but at the end of the day the Tigers are behind the eight ball and need to catch up.

I won’t gaslight you into thinking a 29-42 team is anything but disappointing. However, the American League has been bad enough that the last wild-card team is under .500, giving the Tigers (six games back) a fighting chance.

It’s very possible that 83 to 86 wins gets a team in. If 83 wins is the target, the Tigers would need to go 54-37 the rest of the way in order to reach that mark. Over the course of a season, that is a 95-win pace — a pace of about 10 games better than the Tigers were originally projected before the season.

Is it possible? Yes, but I doubt you and I feel like it is likely. But that could change depending on the next two weeks wrapping up June.

The Tigers dropped two games over the weekend to the division-rival Guardians, which certainly doesn’t help their momentum. They will go to Houston (33-40) and face an Astros team that also has their backs against a wall, fighting for a chance to avoid selling at the deadline before returning home for a 10-game home stand.

Detroit starts the home stand facing the surprisingly enjoyable White Sox (38-32) before facing the Yankees (43-27), who have the most wins in the American League.

Although both of these are better than the Tigers, it does present a prime opportunity to climb in the standings and add to the momentum the Tigers have built in June. We will quickly learn if the healthy Tigers are what we thought they would be before the season or if they do not stack up to teams ahead of them in the standings.

Detroit finishes the month with a couple of quick rematches, which can be tricky considering they just saw these teams days prior.

Obviously, every win is crucial when you have dug a hole as deep as the Tigers have. But, the momentum and belief that comes with each win feels even bigger.

I know some people do not believe in momentum, and that’s fine. But I do. The clubhouse knows that falling flat is going to cost them not only their season, but perhaps lead to certain players departing.

Winning eight of the 15 post-Cleveland games is not good enough. Simply posting a winning record and patting yourself on the back will not cut it. The Tigers need to find a way to win 10 of the 15 games, or better, to show the front office that selling at the deadline is not an option.

Sure, a .667 winning percentage is a lot to ask for, but that’s the reality the Tigers are living in. Scott Harris has a lot more reason to trade off Skubal, Gleyber Torres, and others than to keep them. In order to shift his mindset, the Tigers need to show they can become legit contenders, and time to prove it is running out.

Luckily, the most pivotal time of the season is lining up with the return of impact players who can push them to be great.

Getting Healthy at the Right Time

Torres returned from injury at the beginning of June, and the lineup started to feel different. A home run in his first game back followed by back-to-back three-hit games was a breath of fresh air when the Tigers needed it the most. His .350/.422/.600 slash in June has given the Tigers a balancing act they desperately needed.

Kerry Carpenter returned May 31 and has slashed .303/.368/.606 with three home runs, not only giving the Tigers power but replacing at-bats from previously struggling players. The lineup started to lengthen, and less was on the shoulders of lesser players such as Colt Keith and Spencer Torkelson.

With the lineup closer to full health, the attention turns to the pitching staff, which dropped like flies to begin the year. Troy Melton‘s return has been a huge reason for the Tigers’ hot streak, while Skubal and Mize coming back gives the Tigers better arms and the ace — and energy — the team has lacked.

You cannot simply replace Skubal. Not only is he the best player on the mound, but his energy and bulldog mentality is part of the DNA of this team when they are at their best. He’s a competitor few can match, and you know he understands the position the Tigers are in.

Skubal will have about eight or nine starts lined up before the trade deadline. To me, the Tigers have the advantage every time he takes the mound. Roughly four of those starts, including his return this past weekend against the Guardians, will come before the end of June. You can essentially look at each of those as a playoff game considering where the Tigers are. That’s the mentality Skubal and the team need to have.

Getting Mize back is another massive lift. In the nine starts he made prior to his injury, Mize posted a 2.27 ERA and 2.42 FIP, both career best marks. While I do not think those numbers will stay true the rest of the season, we can all agree it is better than anything Jack Flaherty could provide at this point.

Like Skubal, Mize is in a contract year and at risk of being moved at the deadline. To me he has a much greater chance at an extension than Skubal, but not such a high chance that a trade is off the table.

Detroit also will see the return of Kenley Jansen and Verlander. Yes, both have been subpar in their small samples this season, but they have a track record that at least provides an avenue where they can help this team. You cannot say that about Drew Sommers, Jacob Waguespack, and a number of other arms on the roster.

Final Thoughts

Over the next two or so weeks, we are going to see the roster Scott Harris assembled that became the odds-on favorite to win the division. A season lasts roughly 26 weeks, and the Tigers have about two weeks to prove they are worthy of having a fighting chance. Fair or not, that’s the reality.

Over the next month, we could see that roster look drastically different if the Tigers falter. Skubal, Torres, Jake Rogers, Jansen, Mize, Verlander, and Flaherty are all set to hit free agency at the end of the year and could be moved. While I don’t envision a rebuild, others with control are not off the table come trade deadline.

If Detroit plans to make a statement this season, it starts now. A hot start to June will quickly be forgotten if their winning ways do not keep up. Am I asking for the impossible? Maybe. But that is what it will take.