The Chicago White Sox are Borderline Competitive

Before you get angry, given how bad this team has been in recent memory, hear me out. As of the beginning of the week, the worst team in the American League by record had the eighth-best run differential. Yes, I am talking about the Chicago White Sox.

Last week, I wrote about how the White Sox pitching staff has shown promise, particularly compared to how the team fared last season. Now, it’s time to discuss how this team has actually been borderline competitive though their first 15 games of the season.

The pitching staff has certainly led the way, but the offense has done better than you may think, with improved decision-making leading to expected numbers across the board that indicate marginal improvement on the way.

THE WHITE SOX GET THEIR FIRST SERIES WIN OF THE SEASON IN WALK-OFF FASHION!! pic.twitter.com/Tlo1jPk3zQ

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) April 12, 2025

The phrase of “borderline competitive” may not seem too exciting, but for those that watched much of the 2024 White Sox, it’s a drastic improvement.

Pitching is Helping Them Stay in Games

Coming off a series win against Boston over the weekend, the team is 4-11 through their first 15 games this season. However, a -3 run differential suggests this team has been more competitive than the record may show to this point.

White Sox run differential through 14 games in 2024: -44

White Sox run differential through 14 games in 2025: -1

— Elijah Evans (@ElijahEv8) April 13, 2025

The pitching as a team ranks ninth in MLB with a 3.55 ERA and 10th in batting average allowed with a .220 mark. Despite a couple blowups, the starters and relievers have both done their job in keeping Chicago close this season.

Rule 5 Draft top pick Shane Smith has been the most impressive starter after claiming the final rotation spot with a strong spring. Through his first three MLB starts, he has allowed just four runs on only nine hits with a WHIP of 0.91 and impressive stuff. His fastball, changeup, and slider have all graded out as plus offerings with the changeup standing out in terms of whiff numbers.

Veteran Martin Perez was signed to provide leadership and experience this offseason. He has done just that with three runs allowed in his first three games with the team.

Despite inconsistencies, developing starters Sean Burke, Davis Martin, and Jonathan Cannon have all had at least one excellent start each with positive signs of growth.

Cam Booser, Mike Vasil, Jordan Leasure, and others have led an unproven bullpen to a fairly decent start. If they can get league-average production from the bullpen all season and flip a couple of arms at the deadline, that will be seen as a success.

More help will be on the way to bolster the arms throughout the season as well. It’s not a unit that will dominate, but it should remain competitive this season in a way that it was not (aside from Garrett Crochet) throughout last season.

The team lost a ton of young depth with SIX pitchers getting Tommy John during or following Spring Training, but many quality relievers are waiting in Triple-A while top prospects Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith will have a shot to debut late in the season.

The Bats Are a Bit Less Competitive

Offensively, the outlook was much dimmer prior to the start of the season. Aside from Luis Robert Jr., who is publicly on the trade block, there aren’t any trusted players in this lineup. I’m not even sure Robert fits into the trusted category coming off a brutal year last season.

Andrew Benintendi finished 2024 strong and was looking like possibly the best bat in the lineup prior to going down with an injury after nine games.

Only four players on the roster are currently qualified hitters and Lenyn Sosa leads that group with a .548 OPS. That’s not great.

The other three everyday players are Robert, Andrew Vaughn, and Miguel Vargas, who have all been performing quite poorly to start the year. Despite brutal results so far from the primary hitters on this roster, they have gotten fairly unlucky to this point.

Vaughn, for instance, has a .178 wOBA this season but a .336 xWOBA, which marks the largest differential in MLB so far. Even his expected mark of a .336 is not great by any means, but it’s a lot better.

Mike Tauchman has been a fresh addition coming off an injury that held him out for the first 12 games of the season. Meanwhile, Brooks Baldwin has provided some offense in his second stint of MLB time after a brief taste of the league last year and deserves consistent innings in his versatile utility role.

Many others aside from Vaughn, including Robert and Sosa, have a large gap between their metrics and expected metrics this season.

The team as a whole has shown signs of development that it did not last season. They ranked 20th in average exit velocity and 21st in hard-hit rate thus far after ranking in the bottom five of essential every batted ball number last season.

Yeah, I know. That doesn’t sound good to be bottom 10 compared to bottom three in metrics and that’s because it’s not a good offense yet. But…it’s borderline competitive.

Batted ball data does show slight growth, but decision-making across the board is where the growth is more noticeable on a larger scale.

Plate approach has become an emphasis throughout the organization with the new regime in charge, which can seen in swing by a walk rate of 8.9% compared to last season’s 6.7% mark, which was tied for worst in the league.

Swing decisions go hand-in-hand there as the lineup has shown a level of patience this season that they never did in years past. Chicago’s 28% out-of-zone swing rate is the 12th-best mark in the league and their 65.5% in-zone swing rate is the ninth-best percentage.

An overall contact rate of 76.8%, 11th-best in MLB, is a notch above last year’s team as well.

The talent is still not enough at this stage for those shifts to make a huge difference, but it bodes well, to an extent, for the future.

Chase Meidroth was deservingly called up this past week and this roster should only get more engaging as more prospects are promoted. He provided a huge spark against Boston, his former organization, with his patient plate approach and plus contact skills.

Chase Meidroth was one of the prospects traded to Chicago from Boston in exchange for Garrett Crochet.

He debuted this weekend against his former organization and then broke up Crochet’s longest career no-hit bid in the 8th inning today. pic.twitter.com/jX4l54x441

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) April 13, 2025

Meidroth is a key example of the team’s push for better quality at-bats. He was the third piece in the Garrett Crochet deal, but clearly fits the mold of a player the White Sox wanted to add to the organization.

There’s no reason for Meidroth not to play every day for the rest of the season. Soon enough, he should be joined by top catching prospects Edgar Quero and Kyle Teel. That catching duo will be a featured part of this team for years to come. Quero could be due for a call-up in the near future, while Teel may be a step behind but not by much.

It won’t make this offense instantly good, but the infusion of more young players over the next few months should lead to better energy and hopefully production from the lineup.

There’s a low likelihood that the offense is not one of the worst in baseball, but establishing a foundation takes time. Determining a couple key pieces of the future this season while continuing to stockpile young talent is the goal for the White Sox this year.

If that comes in the form of more wins, awesome. If not, so be it. But the team playing borderline competitive baseball is a step in the right direction.