I’m on a losing streak. We’ve lost three in a row and are coming off a 0-2 Wednesday. I took yesterday to tinker with my strategy, so my picks may look a bit grosser moving forward. We have to get weird, because what I’ve been doing isn’t working.

It starts today with the grossest pick you can think of, but value is value and this one is chock-full of it.

If anyone is interested in my NFL Week 1 Picks & Futures (+35.25 Units in 2023), click here.

2024 Record: 110-115 (-9.16 U)

Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles @ 6:35 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Jonathan Cannon (4.70 ERA) vs. Albert Suarez (3.14 ERA)

This is a team total suitable for minor leaguers. The White Sox are the worst team in MLB history, but they are still Major League Baseball Players. They did score three runs in the first game and are coming off a shutout loss. Let’s see if they can score three runs in the last game of the series to avoid the sweep.

Albert Suarez is pitching incredibly well right now. He’s posted a 1.97 ERA in the month of August and is coming off a great start against the Rockies in Colorado. He did allow eight hits in that game but consistently stranded runners, something he’s done all season that’s bound to hurt him at some point.

Suarez has been a great story this season. A 34 year old who last pitched in MLB back in 2017 has had a career year pitching for the Orioles. I’ve watched ten or more starts just to try and figure out how he’s doing it. With respect to him, it’s a lot of luck.

70% of what he throws are four-seam fastballs and cutters. His strikeout rate is well below average, and his Hard-Hit and walk rates are slightly above average. He doesn’t keep the ball on the ground; he’s just been fortunate that the contact allowed is going towards his defenders.

His SIERA is 4.61 and his xERA is over four. If we are talking about pitchers due for regression, he’s near the top of the list. Wouldn’t it be poetic if the White Sox could finally be the team to do it?

The books think Suarez might not have the most fantastic day in the world. His earned run line is juiced to -150 on the over 1.5, which is definitely interesting. The White Sox are coming off a shutout, and the previous day were dominated by Cade Povich who had an ERA over six coming into that game. If we check out his fantasy score on DFS apps, they have him at 31.5, a line he’s been over in four of his last five starts.

His hits line is juiced to the over even though he’s gone under that line in three of his last five games. He’s plus money to record a win against the worst team that has ever stepped on the field, and he’s coming off two wins in his last three starts.

Behind Suarez is an Orioles bullpen that ranks 21st in ERA and 23rd in FIP since August began. They have two series in the division coming up, so I doubt they got to high leverage arms in this one either unless it’s a close game. If it is close, that means the White Sox likely scored three runs.

Yes, the White Sox are the worst team ever. Don’t worry; the books are well aware of that, and they gave the road team who gets nine innings of guaranteed hitting a 2.5-team total at -120. To put that in perspective; the Rockies coming off a shutout loss, face Charlie Morton and a top-five bullpen and their team total is -150 to go over 2.5. This is objectively a wrong number, and I’m playing it. I project two runs allowed by Suarez and one run allowed by the Baltimore bullpen.

The Pick: White Sox Team Total Over 2.5 (-120) Risk 1 Unit

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.