2025 Fantasy Baseball ADP: Best Draft Steals (Part 3)

After ranking the top players at each position already, our next task to get you ready for the fantasy baseball season is looking at ADP. Across the top 300 players selected in each fantasy draft, you can find countless examples of players who are undervalued at their draft position.

What we aim to do with ADP is identify which players are getting undervalued so we can prioritize not only having them on our draft board, but also finding the proper time to select them.

Before we dive into five players to target, let’s take a step back and explain what exactly ADP is, and how you can use it to your advantage come draft day.

What is ADP in Fantasy Baseball?

ADP stands for Average Draft Position, which tells you where players are typically getting selected in drafts. It’s a useful tool that will help you find players who are not being properly valued, especially as you compare them to others at their position in the same draft range.

How Do I Use ADP Values to Win?

What you want to do with ADP is focus on the players with upside, whether it be the young big leaguer who is due for a full breakout, the current top prospect who is due to make their debut or the consistent veteran who is coming off an injury, value can be found up and down the board.

This is about identifying which guys are lower than they should be according to the National Fantasy Baseball Championship rankings. 

So far in our ADP guide, we have looked into the players getting selected between pick 300-250, which was part 1 of this series. In part 2, we looked into the valuable fantasy sleepers that could be found from picks 250-200.

Today, we begin within the top 200, as I have identified seven players with underrated ADP values that you should look at before drafting this season.

Michael Toglia – #194

Yes, the average needs work. But what’s the one thing that is so hard to find in the back end of drafts? Power. And 25 home runs in just 116 games was a strong display of said skill for Michael Toglia in 2024.

Sure, he gets help from Coors Field, but this was a guy who was already highly regarded for power coming out of UCLA. 

If you aren’t sold on Toglia already, I’d invite you to look up his Statcast metrics. His profile is chock full of red data. He landed in the 90th percentile or better for xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, as well as barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, and walk percentages.

There may not be many fantasy-worthy players in Colorado, but Toglia is one of them and he comes at a very cheap price. 

Tyler O’Neill – #189

Baltimore got their bat to replace Anthony Santander. With the left field fences moving in a bit at Camden Yards, Tyler O’Neill should be in store for another productive season hitting in the middle of this Orioles lineup. 

He landed in the 98th percentile for barrel percentage in 2024 while reaching the 30 home run mark for the second time in his career. The power is evident, and he will most likely reach that home run tally in 2025 as long as he stays on the field.

O’Neill only played in 113 games this season yet still put up elite numbers. And look for the added bonus of a few more steals considering he took 15 in 2021 and 14 in 2022. 

Cristopher Sánchez – #187

I didn’t really know what to think of Cristopher Sánchez last draft season. I didn’t really believe a lot of the results from 2023, so I steered clear. Well, it turns out that I was wrong considering he finished 10th in Cy Young voting with a 3.32 ERA. 

The main reason I didn’t buy in was because of the low strikeout rates. However, Sánchez is a rarity these days, finding ways to be effective even though he’s not striking out the world.

His elite ground ball rate remains his biggest skill, and if he keeps it up, he’ll once again be one of the best bargains available. 

Kerry Carpenter – #180

Kerry Carpenter will not be in your lineups every day. I’m just going to be straight up and tell you not to expect A.J. Hinch to put him out there all the time.

That said, I do expect Carpenter to get a little action versus lefties in order to help him become an everyday player. Because if he does improve against southpaws, his potential is high. 

In just 296 plate appearances this past year, Carpenter smacked 18 home runs with 57 RBI on his way to a .932 OPS. At just 26 years old, this guy is entering his prime, and he’s playing alongside a lot of teammates who want to take the AL Central.

Additionally, I believe his 60th-percentile sprint speed is a sign that he could take 10-15 bases per year. Even though he hasn’t run much in the past, that could change in 2025. Look for the Tigers to get aggressive in any way they can next season.

Would you rather own the up-and-coming Carpenter or take a floundering veteran like Nick Castellanos who has been taken a round before? Give me the young gun. 

Eugenio Suárez – #178

This offseason, the Snakes picked up their 2025 option on Eugenio Suárez. And for good reason. In the last four seasons, he has hit a combined 114 long balls. One of the most consistent power hitters in the game has found a new home in the desert, boosting his counting stats. He’s one of the most underrated fantasy players heading into 2025. 

I don’t normally throw around the ‘underrated’ title, but when I do, it’s for a reason. Suárez should be going off the board before Alex Bregman, who is going four rounds earlier. This is a market inefficiency in my eyes and should be treated as such.

At his ceiling, Bregman is capable of 25 home runs with about a .260 average. Suárez usually finishes around 30 homers with a .240 average and even better counting stats, yet is much cheaper than Bregman. Take the discount! 

Josh Lowe – #162

What happened to Josh Lowe after his breakout 2023?

He started the 2024 season off with an injury that held him out for a good amount of games. And even when he came back, everyday reps were hard to come by considering Kevin Cash’s lefty rule.

Even though the numbers weren’t there, the skills still were. Lowe landed in the 79th percentile of all players in sprint speed while displaying solid bat speed in the box. 

Lowe has one of the biggest ranges in terms of where he’s being taken. On average, it’s 162nd, but the data shows he’s been taken as high as 88th and as low as 213th.

I’d love to see him lead off for the Rays in 2025, a switch-up that Tampa Bay could use after the past few seasons of sluggish offense.

Lowe could be the spark at the top that this team needs, and he could also be a spark to your fantasy lineups. His 20/30 skill set is rare to find in the second half of drafts.

Shane Baz – #157

Ah yes, the wizard of Shane Baz. No player has been treated more carefully in the Rays organization than Baz. I believe 2025 is his year to shine. After coming off Tommy John surgery, he tossed 79.1 innings to the tune of a 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 2024.

The main aspect of his game that I’m encouraged by? He achieved success with a strikeout per nine rate of 7.8, something nobody expected out of the powerful righty.

Throughout his time in the upper minors, his K/9 rates were usually around 12.0-13.0. That should encourage confidence that his ceiling is much higher than what we saw in 2024.

He was still getting used to pitching in big league games. Now that those innings are under his belt, I believe he will be ready to display everything in his pitch arsenal. 

Baz’s teammate, Ryan Pepiot, is being taken one round earlier on average. However, the underlying metrics show Baz has much more potential. If you want safety, choose Pepiot. If you want upside, Baz is your guy.

Continue to Part 4 for players ranked 150-100.