Top Five Hitters To Avoid Drafting in Fantasy for 2025
Questionable offensive profiles and expensive ADP costs lead to skepticism about the overall value of these hitters.
Everyone is trying to find the most value when it comes to sleepers. Paying cheap prices for large production is always a recipe for success in fantasy baseball. Fantasy managers always try to get the most bang for their buck.
But how about those guys who are charging too much for their services? While evaluating potential 2025 busts, I’d like everyone to think about the following five hitters and ask yourself one thing: Does the price match the results?
Avoid These Hitters in Your Fantasy Baseball Draft
Pete Crow-Armstrong Is Essentially a One-Tool Player – ADP #136
All I had to do to determine if Pete belonged on this list was search his percentile rankings amongst the rest of the league. He failed to reach even the 50th grade in any Statcast metrics. In fact, the highest he landed was a 46th percentile in average exit velocity.
So, in other words, this is a questionable profile. Many Cub fans thought he was up next, however, they may be disappointed in the overall result.
One of the biggest considerations we have to factor in when evaluating young prospects is how well they performed at Triple-A. And frankly, Crow-Armstrong was never dominant like many fans thought. His first taste of major league action in 2024 didn’t provide much encouragement, either.
In 123 games last season, Crow-Armstrong hit 10 long balls with 27 steals while only being caught three times on the base paths. I’m a fan of this hectic play style, but in order to execute such plays, you need to first get on base, a problem for PCA. He only took 21 free passes for an overall OBP of .286. So unless he raises that mark, I don’t see the big deal with him.
Essentially, he’s a one-tool player who’s being taken on average in the first twelve rounds of drafts. You can find speed all throughout the draft, which is what I believe everyone is better off doing. Victor Robles and Cedric Mullins are going seven rounds later at a much cheaper price with equivalent results.
Nothing but Bland Production From Logan O’Hoppe – ADP #118
I might be reaching a bit of fatigue with O’Hoppe, considering he was one of the most-hyped catcher prospects just two seasons ago. What I’ve seen from him so far is nothing but bland production. And to make matters worse, the Angels signed notable backup Travis d’Arnaud, who should take a good amount of playing time away from O’Hoppe.
O’Hoppe being taken before Shea Langeliers and J.T. Realmuto is disrespectful to two backstops who have shown us 25-homer potential. Already a part of a questionable lineup, it will be hard for O’Hoppe to produce much in the way of counting stats. Plus, I don’t see much past 125 games, especially with d’Arnaud now in the picture.
I’d even rather take a chance on power returning to Francisco Alvarez, who has a much higher ceiling, although the floor is also lower than O’Hoppe’s. (Editor’s note: This piece was written before the news of Alvarez’s hamate surgery.) There are still too many productive players with higher ceilings around this price point, which turns me off of the Halos’ catcher.
Is This All We’re Going To Get From Seiya Suzuki? – ADP #78
Cub fans may not be my biggest fan since I also included PCA, but facts are facts. Seiya is now on the wrong side of 30, and so far, his career has netted…very little. He has played near-full seasons the past two years, finishing nowhere close to the 30-homer totals many expected out of him.
His batting average has been good, hovering around the .280 mark. However, I’m gonna need more out of someone being taken in the sixth round. He’d be going more in the middle rounds if I was the one creating ADP rankings.
We already know stats are inflated when it comes to studying the Japanese leagues, but this is a guy who once hit 38 long balls in 134 contests back in 2021. Wrigley Field can be tricky for right-handed power bats, and I think that’s a lot of what he has run into throughout his major league career. He’s hitting the ball hard with healthy strikeout rates, so when will it all come together?
We’ve been waiting for the past few years for him to really break out. Is this all we get? I’m afraid that might just be the truth, creating a very low ceiling for the 78th overall pick in drafts.
Adley Rutschman’s Skills Aren’t Quite a Match for the Hype – ADP #57
I know, I know. Do I dare call this man a bust? My reasoning is fairly simple. In OBP leagues, I’m able to recognize where his value lies. If you watch Adley up at the plate, he’s a very selective hitter who takes his pitches and has the ability to spit on offerings he doesn’t like.
Being a catcher, he knows the strike zone, which causes him to even take pitches right around the edge of the zone that normal batters would swing at. This has caused Rutschman to miss out on big power totals. The highest OPS of his career so far is .809, and just last season, he barely made it to .709, causing me to raise an eyebrow on his draft day price.
When power hitters like Marcell Ozuna and Brent Rooker are being drafted after Rutschman, it’s hard to take him at such an early point in the draft. I’d rather have a lockdown DH for my utility spot, like the two mentioned above.
Adley is a very interesting player because while he’s a special talent, the skills aren’t quite a match for the hype. When there is a mistake in consensus belief, take advantage of the misconception. Remember, don’t pay Mercedes prices for a Subaru.
Be Careful With Jazz Chisholm Jr. This Draft Season – ADP #22
It almost seemed as if Jazz was asleep in Miami. As soon as the Yankees acquired him, Chisholm pressed on the gas. He almost had the same number of homers for New York as he did for Miami, even though he only played 46 games in the Bronx compared to 101 for the Marlins.
We often hear about the benefits of a change of scenery, and it appears to have helped Jazz in a big way. However, I don’t know if that type of production will hold up in 2025.
Chisholm has never finished a full season with an OPS above .800 in at least 100 games played. He’s a streaky player, which isn’t totally bad for fantasy since the production comes in waves, but that’s not the type of consistency I want at an ADP of 22.
I think a reasonable projection is 20/20, but I don’t see him going much past that level. He caught a lot of teams by surprise with how much he was running, and I don’t believe he steals 40 bags as he did in 2024.
The data is also low on him. He’s got quality sprint speed, but his highest batting metric on Baseball Savant was in the 66th percentile (barrel rate). Every other mark was lower, not great for whatever is under the hood.
Be careful with Jazz this draft season. I’m perfectly fine letting this type of streakiness fall multiple rounds before pondering a selection.
Written by
Joe Rowan is a Fantasy Analyst for Just Baseball. A graduate of Butler University, Joe is an avid Chicago White Sox fan and enjoys writing all…