WE ARE BACK.
Let’s get it out of the way early. I did not enjoy a stellar leadup to the All-Star Break. At the beginning of July, we won seven in a row and I felt that losing was impossible. Following that came the most average streak of all time, as it seemed I went 1-1 every day. I complained about being average, and then we were hit in the mouth with consecutive losing days.
I needed a breather to re-set my mind. I took two days off in the lead-up to the All-Star game and BAM. We hit the best bet of the season, taking Jackson Holliday to be the first overall pick at +1100. We took a few others and came out with 10.25 units from the draft alone.
We did lose at the derby, but it was just a light sprinkle. I put a total of 0.7 Units across Pete Alonso and Julio Rodriguez, and both came up empty. I took the American League ML as my bet for the All-Star Game at 0.5 Units, which hit, but we lost on some 0.1 Unit sprinkles on Jose Ramirez to win MVP and for the correct score of the game to be 4-3.
All in all, the All-Star break was extremely profitable. We needed it, and it boosted the total units from 11.14 to 20.99 for the season so far. Now that we have the recaps out of the way, let’s dive into my MLB Best Bet for Thursday Night Baseball.
2022 MLB Regular Season Record: 136-117 (54%) +20.99 units
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 10:00 PM EST
Carlos Rodon (LHP, Giants) [8-5, 2.66 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 105 IP, 131 K, 35 BB]
Mitch White (RHP, Dodgers) [1-2, 4.20 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 45 IP, 42 K, 17 BB]
Thursday Night Baseball between the NL West rivals will be an incredible game to watch, and the Dodgers opened as -160 favorites with 27-year-old Mitch White on the hill opposing 29-year-old Carlos Rodon as a +135 underdog. There wasn’t much of a need to add their ages, I just didn’t realize they were only two years apart in age so I thought I’d throw that in there.
Mitch White is one of the lesser-known starters for the Dodgers, but he’s not bad by any stretch. He features a solid fastball anywhere from 93-95 MPH that sits in the 59th percentile in spin rate. He’s mostly a three-pitch guy, keeping hitters off balance with an 85 MPH slider and an 80 MPH curveball. The slider is his best offering, producing the highest whiff rate and most strikeouts of any pitch in his arsenal. His curveball is decent, but it doesn’t have a lot of movement and only sits in the 31st percentile in spin.
While the Giants lineup hasn’t looked the same as last year, they had an encouraging series offensively against some talented right-handers. Corbin Burnes pitched well against them, but they didn’t go down without a fight, getting him out of the game after 116 pitches in 7.1 innings. They got to Brandon Woodruff as well, bouncing him from the game after 5.2 innings with 112 pitches. They were dominated by Eric Lauer, but bounced back against Aaron Ashby, and crushed Jason Alexander.
The Giants match up well against fastball/slider dominant pitchers. Almost the entire lineup has a positive run value against fastballs, and while Lamonte Wade has struggled so far this season, he is someone to watch. He’ll leadoff in this one, and he has a positive run value against the fastball and slider and he’s much better against right-handed pitching. He’s currently +125 to go over his total bases…
The Dodgers are also coming off a couple of impressive wins against the Angels. They scored 16 runs against the Angels in two games while only allowing two runs. The Angels are in a tailspin, so it’s challenging to put a lot of stock in those wins. You can only play who’s on the schedule, and the Dodgers easily took care of business.
Carlos Rodon will take the ball for the Giants who have not only dominated the Dodgers recently, but he’s at his best with more rest. We saw it on full display in his first start after the All-Star game last year, throwing seven innings and only allowing one hit while striking out 10 against the Houston Astros. The only problem with Rodon here is he missed the All-Star game due to a blister and a split fingernail. If he gets into trouble due to that, he’ll have a rested Giants bullpen that I believe is much better than the numbers have shown this season.
The Dodgers have been the best team in baseball this year against right-handed pitching, but against lefties, they have the 10th highest OPS as a team. They can be beaten. Especially when you consider how dominant Rodon has been against the Dodgers. Through 12 innings against them this year, he’s only allowed two runs while striking out 11. Through 78 PA against the Dodgers’ current roster, he’s held them to a .113 opponent batting average, a .235 xwOBA, and a .254 xSLG.
The Giants are 18-6 as underdogs this year. I bet this line last night at +135 and we’ve seen it come down to +125, even +120 on some books. I think this game should be closer to -110 on both sides, so I’d be willing to play the Giants at plus money if it drops that far.
The Pick: San Francisco Giants ML (+135)
1.0 Units to Win 1.35 Units.
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