How Can the Tigers Patch Their Pitching Staff in an Open AL Central?
The Tigers moved Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize at the deadline, but a playoff run is still possible if they can stabilize their pitching staff.
The trade deadline has come and gone, with the Detroit Tigers subtracting two major rotation pieces. Tarik Skubal landed where he always was supposed to, and Casey Mize joined him on the West Coast after being sent to the Padres. While the rotation took a significant hit, the bullpen remains the same.
Moving Skubal and Mize, both on expiring contracts, was the sensible and right path to take. Detroit entered the deadline under .500 and had not done nearly enough to justify passing up on the returns in order to chase a long-shot chance at making the playoffs or a postseason run.
However, the Tigers sit just 5.5 games back in the AL Central and 2.5 games back from a playoff spot with a real chance to compete despite their departures. Don’t get me wrong, I do not think winning the Central is likely, and the two teams ahead of them — the Guardians and White Sox — bought at the deadline while the Tigers didn’t add much to their major league roster.
At the end of the day, the games still have to be played, and Detroit, at least statistically, has a chance to push for the division.
As the post-deadline baseball world gets underway, Detroit will need to reshape its pitching staff. Not just its rotation, but also its bullpen.
How the Rotation Takes Shape From Here
Moving Skubal and Mize obviously took this rotation from one of the better groups in baseball to average or below average. Several veterans are currently on the IL, which has forced the Tigers’ youth movement to grow up fast and inherit larger roles.
Atop the group is veteran lefty Framber Valdez and his disappointing 4.41 ERA/4.14 FIP. The lefty has not necessarily been bad, but he has not been the level of pitcher the Tigers have needed. His strikeouts and walks are down, but he is still eating innings and producing a high groundball rate. If nothing else, you can count on him taking the ball every fifth day.
After Valdez are two younger arms emerging in front of our eyes in Troy Melton and Keider Montero. Melton has been phenomenal in 11 starts, pitching to a 1.75 ERA/3.89 FIP while flashing better stuff and solid command.
Not only has his breakout helped the Tigers this season, but it has changed the confidence and outlook for the rotation going forward. How he finishes this year will be a determining factor in how the Tigers address the rotation in the offseason and what level of pitcher they determine they need to bring in.
Montero has perhaps been the most underrated Tiger. What he has offered the Tigers over the past three seasons should not go underappreciated. Need him to start? No problem. Bounce up and down from the minors? Sure. Move to the bullpen for a few weeks? You got it. A useful arm that has grown into much more.
Instead of trying to find ways to strike more batters out, Montero has leaned into finding ways to miss barrels. Elite command has limited baserunners, and his ability to keep batters guessing has allowed him to avoid damage and post a 3.17 ERA/3.71 FIP across 116.1 innings.
This combination of Melton and Montero has given the Tigers confidence that they can move forward and still compete this season, even if that confidence might be too strong considering their lack of track record.
After those three, you have a collection of injured arms working their way back. Jack Flaherty started the season off on a terrible stretch but has improved to a 2.67 ERA/3.25 FIP since the first of June (seven starts). The past season and a half has truly been a mixed bag for Flaherty, but he is at least a veteran who deserves a rotation spot and can help down the stretch.
So, Valdez, Melton, Montero, and Flaherty (once healthy) are a solid four with upside, injury questions, and somewhat unproven options. Depending on who you ask, confidence in that group will vary.
The fifth spot is where things get interesting. Jackson Jobe, Justin Verlander, and newly acquired River Ryan are all in the mix. Jobe is making rehab starts as we speak while working his way back from Tommy John surgery. Verlander has pitched 3.2 innings this season and hasn’t even thrown off a mound. Ryan’s return is not certain but should become an option sooner rather than later for the Tigers.
I’ll go ahead and address Verlander first. I don’t think we will be seeing him anytime soon. If we do, it could be out of the bullpen or in some type of short-inning burst. When September comes, if the Tigers are out of it, I’m sure we’ll get some crowd-pleasing send-off start, but until then I do not consider him an option.
That leaves Jobe and Ryan. Across 15.1 rehab innings, Jobe pitched to a 1.76 ERA/2.56 FIP with 9.98 K/9 and 2.35 BB/9. He’s set to return to Detroit and will claim the fifth spot, at least for now. Considering he is working back from Tommy John surgery, there’s a nonzero chance Jobe is shifted to a bullpen role to help manage innings and improve the bullpen for the rest of the season.
Ryan was obviously brought in to be an option right away. I don’t see the Tigers going to a six-man rotation, although it is possible, and I view Ryan as someone who could claim that fifth spot. In my opinion, Jobe did not look as sharp in his rehab outings as the numbers indicate. I see a path where easing him back through the bullpen and allowing Ryan to start could help the Tigers.
Jobe going to the bullpen would be a significant lift considering what the Tigers’ bullpen looks like.
A Bullpen Full of Question Marks
Outside of injuries, the Tigers’ biggest issue has been their bullpen. Veterans who have produced throughout their careers, like Kenley Jansen, Kyle Finnegan, and Will Vest, have looked like shells of themselves this season. Vest is out due to injury, joining Brant Hurter, one of their only reliable arms in the bullpen, on the IL.
Not trading away the rest of your tradeable pieces only made sense if you also acquired bullpen arms with team control. A true buy-and-sell, although not a strategy I like, would have made more sense than what the Tigers did. Instead, Jacob Waguespack, Drew Sommers, Brenan Hanifee, Drew Anderson, and Enmanuel De Jesus are pitching key innings down the stretch.
Each of those players has had their moments and even comes with some baseline numbers that look fine, but they can hardly be trusted to help lead the Tigers to an unlikely playoff run. Yes, Finnegan and Jansen have made a ton of mistakes and are responsible for a number of losses, but I don’t think the Tigers will be moving on from them, for better or worse.
Ty Madden is an interesting piece for this final stretch of the season. An arm that I have long wanted to be nothing more than a bullpen option has filled a bulk role extremely well. A 2.40 ERA/3.06 FIP across 30 innings and 11 appearances is a surprise considering the struggles he had for most of last season. Detroit needs to lean on him more and find out if what we are seeing is real and if he could claim a larger role in the future.
Other 40-man roster options include Sawyer Gipson-Long, Beau Brieske, Yilber Diaz, Burch Smith, and recently added Troy Watson. My confidence is not high in any of these names truly being an answer. Smith looked better than expected before his injury, while the rest come with a rather significant red flag, whether it be walking too many batters or not missing enough bats.
Jackson Wolf, acquired in the Mize trade, doesn’t excite me either.
A primary issue I have with the bullpen is not only the sheer amount of unproven or unreliable arms, but also the lack of real upside. Is there anyone with even a coin-flip chance of becoming a reliable high-leverage arm? To me, I don’t feel that way right now.
Someone from the rotation mix is going to have to slide to the bullpen, and Jobe’s 100 mph fastball feels like a natural fit. Not long term, but for the rest of the season. If Verlander gets healthy and has anything left in the tank, he can become an option as well.
Final Thoughts
Trading away Skubal and Mize was not enough for my biggest concern to shift from the bullpen to the rotation. I know that might sound crazy, but I trust more arms in the rotation than I do in the bullpen, which still isn’t a very high number.
Detroit has found ways to get into the playoffs and win playoff series each of the past two seasons with plenty of guys who are still on this pitching staff, but 2026 feels different. Once you get to the seventh inning, if the Tigers aren’t leading by five runs, I’m nervous. That’s not a feeling that follows many fans of playoff teams, which is exactly why I think the Tigers will struggle to surpass the teams ahead of them.
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