Should the Detroit Tigers Trade or Keep Tarik Skubal?
Tarik Skubal may be the biggest prize on the trade market, but the Tigers must decide whether to cash in on their ace or chase a postseason run.
After a 6-22 month of May, the Detroit Tigers were looking like a team dead in the water. Injuries had pilled up, and Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal was on the shelf. With all signs pointing toward a lost season, the trade rumors started earlier than expected, especially when news broke that Skubal’s magical surgery would have him back earlier than expected.
I wrote about the month of June being one of the most crucial times in recent Tigers history. A miracle needed to happen. One not too different from what we saw in Detroit only two seasons prior. The Tigers gained momentum, going 15-11 in June and starting July by going 7-3. It’s catapulted them right back in the playoff picture.
Winning solves everything, right? Remember, this Tigers team was built to be a true World Series contender in 2026, and they way they have been playing the past six months gives you reason to believe they aren’t far off from that label.
But with the trade deadline only a few weeks away, the biggest question of the season still needs to be answered: Will the Tigers trade Tarik Skubal, perhaps the best player available on the market, or keep him for one final run?
The Case For Trading Tarik Skubal
After losing Skubal’s arbitration case, the Tigers did not back down from spending. Instead, they signed Framber Valdez to a three-year, $115 million deal, then followed it up by bringing back local legend Justin Verlander to solidify the rotation.
While the Verlander deal was only for one season, inking Valdez to a three-year deal made the writing on the wall go from chalk to paint. Tarik Skubal would walk at the end of the year.
Knowing that Skubal will hit free agency and is likely to head to a coastal team in 2027 and beyond, the idea of trading him at the deadline is enticing. The Tigers could not only receive valuable pieces in return but potentially add legitimate top-100 prospects to their system.
From an asset management perspective, two months of control for one player compared to six years of control for multiple players is an easy decision to make.
We aren’t talking about Casey Mize, who is having a great year after several solid but unspectacular seasons and a number of injuries. We are talking about a back-to-back Cy Young winner with a 3.06 ERA, a 3.11 FIP, elite command, and plus strikeout stuff. Oh yeah, he does it from the left side. A true bulldog and workhorse, Skubal would fit atop the rotation of nearly any team in baseball.
A potential return, even for a rental, should include at least one top-100 prospect and likely much more. Want a young major league player? Skubal can get it. A toolsy 20-year-old prospect climbing the rankings? Easy. Multiple young arms nearing their MLB debuts? Done.
Whatever avenue the Tigers wish to pursue, they have the flexibility to explore multiple options. They aren’t cornered into dealing with one team and hoping for the best return. Skubal is the rare type of player who could even force traditionally cautious teams like the Rays and Brewers to approach the deadline differently. Passing up that type of return would be difficult, especially for a front office that is more data-driven than ever and uses models that project player value with increasing consistency.
Take a peep into next year’s rotation. Skubal will be gone, as will Jack Flaherty, and Mize is also set to hit the open market.
Valdez is under contract, but what comes after him? Troy Melton and Keider Montero have made major strides and could slot into the rotation, but the Tigers still aren’t 100% certain what they have in them long term.
Reese Olson has been injured, and you don’t know what he looks like once healthy. Jackson Jobe is also hurt and has not looked like the top prospect he was since 2023. The system is also lacking high-end arms ready to debut.
Trading Skubal would allow the Tigers to bring back more pitching talent with years of control, making the transition away from these veteran arms easier to stomach. Tigers fans know how often pitching injuries occur, and having more options with upside would be welcomed.
If the Tigers had not fumbled the month of May, the conversation would be different. But the reality is that a 6-22 month is difficult to rebound from, and the shortcomings in the lineup remain.
We saw these issues last season, and we are seeing them again today. Add a bullpen that is far from bulletproof, and it’s easy to understand why some believe this team isn’t good enough to justify keeping Skubal past the deadline. If you believe the Tigers haven’t earned the right to keep Skubal, then there is a legitimate argument to be made.
Now, fast forward to November. If the Tigers aren’t celebrating a World Series championship, will fans criticize Scott Harris for not moving Skubal while the team was below .500 at the trade deadline? Then again, what if they are the ones celebrating at a championship parade?
The Case For Keeping Tarik Skubal
The hell with the prospects. Detroit fans have endured years of a rebuild and have only recently gotten a taste of postseason success. Is one disastrous May really enough to derail the team’s hopes for the rest of the season? A team that is finally getting healthy and showing what it can be, with a growing sample size of success, is suddenly supposed to pivot because adding minor leaguers is the safer route?
I’m sure many fans are going through that exact thought process, and I don’t blame them. I have been there myself, and depending on the day you ask me, I may still be there. Trading a superstar doesn’t guarantee multiple contributors for years to come. It simply guarantees more darts to throw at the board.
The only guarantee of this situation is that Skubal would get the ball in the biggest spot come playoff time.
If Detroit was a team playing above their weight, starting to come out of a rebuild, and missing a number of answers, I would understand trading Skubal more. Call it the 2024 Tigers, right? But winning playoff series in back-to-back years and investing in this season told fans they are past the rebuild phase and have entered contention mode.
If Tarik Skubal is traded, what message does that send the clubhouse? A clubhouse full of players that have fought to get back into the race and have a legitimate shot at not only making a wild card but winning their division.
The past month and a half is the closest thing we have seen to what this team was supposed to be since Opening Day. For the most part, the team is healthy, and Gleyber Torres, Jobe, and others are nearing returns. Shouldn’t the conversation be about buying to round out the bullpen and help the lineup?
The American League has had a historically bad season. The Astros aren’t as scary as they once were, the Mariners have their own problems, the Rays’ lineup has flaws, and the Yankees aren’t as powerful as their history might suggest.
While it usually sounds crazy to have much faith in a 44-52 team, if there ever was a season to have that hope, it would be this one.
Skubal is a special player. He’s the type of player you might only have on a roster every decade or two. Not only is he a fantastic talent, but he brings energy and leadership to the team. He has also said he wants to stay in Detroit this year. Now, future years? That’s a different story, but we’ll save that for a later day.
I’m sure the analytically smart move would be to trade Skubal. A team that is 44-52 and holding onto the best trade deadline asset in baseball, while hoping an offense that has fallen flat for two years and received no notable upgrades outside of Kevin McGonigle suddenly becomes good enough to make a run, doesn’t seem like a likely outcome.
Detroit, for the most part, has played it safe since Scott Harris joined the Tigers. One-year deals and a lack of major trades have allowed them to avoid significant disasters. The Framber Valdez move might have been the start of a turning point — a step toward taking on more risk for the first time during Harris’ tenure.
But it is hardly as risky as riding out this season with Skubal still on the roster. Is Harris willing to take that level of risk and go against the calculations that have guided him to this point?
Final Thoughts
Two seasons ago, rumors were swirling of Skubal going to Baltimore. It didn’t happen.
Last year, it was a list of other teams calling. He stayed put.
All offseason long, articles were written about landing spots. Yet, Skubal is still wearing the old English D.
The Tigers have had every opportunity to bring back bigger returns, find a move that made the most sense, and trade Skubal at extremely high value. Yet, here he is, helping the Tigers push for a playoff spot.
Personally, I have gone back and forth on what I would prefer the Tigers to do. At this point, I’ve landed on wanting the Tigers to keep Skubal, settle with the comp pick (if not changed under new CBA), and try to improve at the deadline.
You only get so many shots at being a playoff team, and with money coming off the books this offseason, addressing needs via free agency instead of filling them with prospects from a return is my preferred route.
The more the Tigers continue to win, the harder it becomes to make the move — not only for the team but also for the fanbase. Sending the message that playing like one of the best teams in baseball for a month-plus leading up to the deadline still isn’t enough to keep their best player would be difficult.
If you act like a losing franchise, then you’ll be a losing franchise.
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