Tarik Skubal is the Perfect Trade Fit for the Orioles

As much of the baseball world is aware, the Orioles have recently been linked to Tarik Skubal. The Orioles as well as the Dodgers have reportedly made calls for the Tigers ace.

Baltimore is looking to win their first World Series since 1983. They are going to need some pitching help if they hope to accomplish that goal. The Orioles have the best farm system in baseball, making a Tarik Skubal trade a possibility.

Skubal is the odds-on favorite to win the American League Cy Young this season and for good reason. The 27-year-old lefty is pitching to a 2.41 ERA this season, with 140 strikeouts in 116 innings pitched across 19 starts.

The only qualified pitcher with a better ERA in the American League is Corbin Burnes, who just happens to already be in Baltimore after a trade this offseason. Paring Skubal and Burnes would be a devastating propostion for any lineup that has to face them across a playoff series.

But why would the Tigers be willing to move Skubal?

He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and has two more years of arbitration. Realistically the Tigers could be eying an opening to compete for the division next season and Skubal could play a big role in that. So why move him? The answer is lack of offense in Detroit.

If the Tigers really hope to compete for the division next season they are going to need upgrades on offense. At this point in the season the only Tigers hitter with over 200 plate appearances and a wRC+ over 100 is Riley Green.

Colt Kieth has a wRC+ of 98 and seems to be finding his footing which is a good sign. However, then you have Spencer Torkelson who continues to struggle. On the farm there is not much hope for next year outside of Jace Jung and maybe Dillon Dingler offensively.

If you listen to the Just Baseball show, I am sure you heard the reference to the rant made on 97.1 WXYT in Detroit. The Tigers are 46-28 when they score two or more runs this season. That is good for a .621 win percentage which would be the second best in baseball.

The reason they are below .500 this season is because they have been held under two runs 24 times this season. They are 2-22 in those games.

The Tigers need for offense and the Orioles plethora of it makes a Skubal trade to Baltimore a possible win-win for both parties.

Potential Skubal Trade Packages

If this trade goes down, it would be one of the crazier trades that we have seen in recent history. When trying to formulate a package it always helps to go back and look at what deals have looked like in the past.

There are two trades that can be used to gauge what a Skubal trade might look like. The first is the Jose Berrios trade to Toronto. The differences here are that Berrios had one less year of control at the time of the trade. Berrios had also been incredibly durable but not nearly as dominant as Skubal has been this year. That trade cost Toronto the MLB No. 22 and 86 ranked prospects, Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson.

The second trade is the Juan Soto trade to San Diego in 2022. Obviously, Soto is a position player which is a massive difference. That is where the differences really stop.

Soto was traded with the same amount of team control as Skubal. Similar to Skubal, Soto was a young superstar and one of the best players at his position. The trade for Soto cost the Padres CJ Abrams (MLB No. 9), Robert Hassell III (MLB No. 37), MacKenzie Gore (MLB No. 86), James Wood (Padres No. 5), Jarlin Susana (Padres No. 19), and Luke Voit. This trade also sent Josh Bell to San Diego.

I believe that a trade for Skubal falls somewhere in the middle of these two. Pitchers are inherently less valuable than position players due to the higher risk of serious injury. The Soto trade also included Josh Bell making it more expensive.

Here are three packages that could happen in a Skubal trade to Baltimore.

The Starting Point

Tigers Receive: Heston Kjerstad – OF (JBB No. 40), Jordan Westburg – INF, Jud Fabian – OF (BAL No. 14), and Cade Povich – LHP (BAL No. 10)

Orioles Receive: Tarik Skubal – LHP

This is the bare minimum that the Tigers would likely entertain for Skubal. This package offers the Tigers three players that will start for them next season as well as a promising outfield prospect in Fabian.

Kjerstad has a 170 wRC+ in 60 plate appearances for Baltimore this season. He can play decent defense in a corner but more importantly he has 30 HR potential. Kjerstad has been one of the best if not the best bat in Triple-A this season.

Jordan Westburg was just elected to the All-Star game and is having a great second season in Baltimore. He is third among all qualified second basemen in wRC+ this year. He can also play shortstop which should be attractive for the Tigers. If the Orioles believe in Jackson Holliday, trading Westburg frees up a spot for Holliday to come up and make an impact.

Jud Fabian is a solid outfield prospect. He has power and plays a good center field. The hit tool is the real question. He is striking out 29% of the time in Double-A this year which is a lot but it is an improvement on his 37.5% mark last season in Double-A. Fabian is someone that the Tigers can eventually develop into a fourth outfielder if nothing else.

Finally, Cade Povich struggled a little in his first seven major league starts but showed flashes of what he can be. He doesn’t have ace potential but a ceiling of a solid three/great four in a rotation is certainly there. Povich would make the rotation for the Tigers next season.

The problem with this trade from Baltimore’s prospective is that you are trading two key pieces of your team right now to get a deal done. Considering how well Westburg has played this sesaon, it is hard to envision him getting dealt. Maybe you can insert Coby Mayo in the deal instead, but the future outlook of Mayo might even be better than that of Westburg.

A Good Middle Ground

Tigers Receive: Samuel Basallo – C (JBB No. 7), Heston Kjerstad – OF (JBB No. 40), Connor Norby – 2B/OF (BAL No. 6), Seth Johnson – RHP (BAL No. 13)

Baltimore Receive: Tarik Skubal – LHP

The difference between this deal and the last one is the addition of Samuel Basallo. Basallo is the seventh ranked prospect on the Just Baseball Top 100. The soon to be 20-year-old catcher is one of the best prospects in all of baseball. He has a plus hit tool, plus power, and a big arm. If the Orioles are going to get this deal done, it will likely take a prospect of Basallo’s caliber to do it.

Kjerstad remains as part of the package, although if the Orioles aren’t willing to move him from their current team they could maybe plug Enrique Bradfield Jr. in his place. Bradfield is a top 100 prospect in his own right, checking in at No. 72.

Connor Norby is the JBB No. 6 ranked prospect in the Orioles system. He has a 133 wRC+ in Triple-A and crushes lefties who the Tigers struggle against. With Colt Keith and Jace Jung likely playing second and third, Norby can play solid defense in a corner.

Finally, Seth Johnson is promising pitching prospect who has hit some hiccups due to injury. The 25-year-old has been lights out in Double-A this year. He has a 2.66 ERA in 61 innings. Whether it is in Baltimore or somewhere else, Seth Johnson is likely on a major league roster next season.

A Kings Ransom

Tigers Receive: Jackson Holliday – SS (JBB No. 3), Samuel Basallo (JBB No. 7), Connor Norby – 2B/OF (BAL No. 6), Justin Armbruester – RHP

Orioles Receive: Tarik Skubal

I do not believe that the Orioles will be willing to move more than one of Holliday, Basallo, or Coby Mayo in a Skubal Trade. However, never say never. It has come out that the Tigers do not have any intention of moving Skubal. Which could be true, but it could also be a ploy to drive up the price. This package is the absolute most I can see the Orioles giving up in a trade for Skubal.

If the front office believes that this move could bring the Orioles a World Series title, we could potentially see a deal like this that includes both Basallo and Holliday.

I know that this sounds crazy but Holliday has become more movable with the emergence of Jordan Westburg. With Coby Mayo set to debut soon and likely man third base for the foreseeable future, there isn’t necessarily a spot for Holliday in the infield.

Lets break it down. Moving forward Gunnar at short and Mayo is at third on the left side. Westburg was just selected to the All-Star game and is third among qualified second basemen in wRC+.

Mountcastle and O’Hearn form one of the best platoons in baseball at first so you can’t move Mayo there and Westburg to third and free up second. That leaves an outfield of Cowser, Kjerstad, Mullins, and Santander (assuming he re-signs).

Yes, you could make room for Holliday in this lineup but not without removing a proven and productive major leaguer. To be clear I am not “pro moving Holliday”. I believe he is going to be a very good, if not excellent major league player. I do however, believe he is more movable for Baltimore than others in the perfect scenario.

Honeslty, if Elias is willing to put Bassallo and Holliday on the table, he probably could keep Norby out of this deal altogther. We are talking about two top 10 prospects in all of baseball. I’d call try to offer just those two for Skubal straight-up and see what Detroit does.

Baltimore could fill out a package futher if they wanted to, but the bottom line is that the Orioles have the pieces to submit an offer the Tigers just cannot refuse.

Impact for Baltimore

A Skubal trade has a quite obvious outcome for the Baltimore Orioles. This team has two starters on the injured list who they will not see until late next year at the earliest. A healthy Kyle Bradish and John Means would in all likelihood make a Skubal trade unnecessary for Baltimore. The reality however is that they do not have those two players.

A rotation of Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Albert Suarez, and Cade Povich is a fine regular season rotation. However, when the playoffs roll around Kremer is not an ideal third starter. I like Kremer and he has been solid for Baltimore the last three years but there is a lack of consistency which is a concern come October.

A trade for Skubal would give the Orioles the best playoff rotation in baseball (or at least in the American League). It would also upgrade the bullpen by sending Suarez there full time. If the Orioles are looking to win a World Series, a trade for Skubal would make them the favorites.

The overall likelihood of a deal like this being completed is probably less than one percent. It all comes down to just how aggressive the Orioles want to be. Despite those chances, it doesn’t mean it can’t be fun to speculate and dream on a potential Tarik Skubal trade to the Baltimore Orioles.