What Will an Aroldis Chapman Trade Look Like for the Red Sox?
With the Red Sox struggling, Aroldis Chapman, who is getting better with age, seems to be an obvious candidate to be traded.
It is no secret that the 2026 Boston Red Sox season has gone in a direction nobody could have predicted, and not for the better.
Wrapping up the first half of their season Saturday afternoon with a 4-1 win over the New York Yankees, Boston currently sits at a 37-47 record, sitting firmly in dead last in the American League Eastern Division by 13 games, while also being 5.5 games back in the American League wild-card standings.
With a combination of both inconsistent play, along with long-term injuries to key players such as Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet, the writing is on the wall for the team to sell at the upcoming MLB trade deadline in hopes of retooling for the 2027 season.
The Red Sox certainly have plenty of names to trade away to contenders in the coming weeks, including outfielder Jarren Duran, right-handed pitcher Sonny Gray, and first baseman Willson Contreras. But their most coveted piece comes in the form of their left-handed closer, Aroldis Chapman.
Aroldis Chapman Is Getting Better With Age
At age 38, Chapman should be at the point in his career where he is starting to slow down, as is the case with most players who are around that age. However, quite the opposite is happening, as he continues to defy father time by putting together some of the best seasons of his career since signing with Boston in the 2024-25 offseason.
After signing with the team, it was described by ESPN analyst Buster Olney that “Connor Wong was catching Chapman in a game, was using pitchcom, and called for an inside fastball,” Olney said. “That’s when the lightbulb went off over Chapman’s head. He told Wong and Jason Varitek that he never thought about spotting his fastball; he would just throw it to home plate. All of a sudden, his entire perspective has changed.”
While it never was fully confirmed whether or not that report was true, it certainly does help that Chapman put together the best season of his career in 2025. Throwing 61.1 innings, he pitched to the tune of a 5-3 record with a 1.17 ERA, striking out 85 batters and collecting 32 saves in 34 opportunities. Earning a season-high 3.4 bWAR, he took home the 2025 Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year and finished seventh in AL Cy Young award voting in a resurgent season.
Matching a season that included an ERA+ of 344 may be hard to replicate, but Chapman certainly has not shown any signs of slowing down in 2026. Throwing 24.2 innings across 26 outings, he currently holds an 0-3 record with a 2.19 ERA and striking out 32, while collecting 16 saves in 18 opportunities. Additionally, he is still showcasing the velocity that has made him one of the most feared closers in baseball since the 2010s, with an average fastball velocity of 97.5 mph that ranks in the 92nd percentile, paired with elite extension of 7.2 ft that ranks in the 95th percentile.
With the Red Sox well out of contention, Chapman’s pitching is vital to any contender looking to make a run in October, especially with how important the final three outs of any playoff game can be. While Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers can be argued as both the top pitcher and player available at the deadline, Chapman is easily the best bullpen arm one could acquire, and in some ways, may be the most important player for a team to trade for.
Recent History of Rental Closer Trades
Should Chapman get traded at the deadline, the team who acquires him will do so with him more than likely entering free agency at season’s end. In the middle of the 2025 season, the Red Sox extended him for 2026, including a vesting mutual option for $13 million in 2027 should he pitch 40 innings this season.
However, while he more than likely will reach that threshold, it is unlikely that the mutual option will be exercised, meaning that he will instead enter free agency looking for either more years, more money, or a combination of the pair. That said, it certainly will not stop teams from trying to trade from him, and over the last ten years, there have been quite a few instances of rental closers being dealt at the deadline. While some of the deals ended up paying off, others may have be a bit more regrettable, and ultimately gives the right idea of what potential deals Boston could look to model.
Ryan Helsley: St. Louis Cardinals to New York Mets (2025)
Mason Miller and Jhoan Durán were the top two closers to acquire at the deadline last year, but both of them still had multiple years of control left for each of their contracts, leaving Ryan Helsley as a comparable situation to Chapman.
After a strong first-half of the season, the New York Mets looked to upgrade their back-half of the bullpen at the 2025 deadline, and found a partner in the St. Louis Cardinals to do so. The two teams agreed to a deal that would send two-time All-Star and their franchise’s single-season saves record holder in Helsley to New York, in exchange for two of their top 15 prospects per MLB Pipeline, including infielder Jesús Báez (No. 8 prospect), and right-handed pitcher Nate Dohm (Mets’ No. 14), along with an unranked prospect in right-handed pitcher Frank Elissalt.
While he was a closer, the Mets planned to utilize Helsley as a setup man behind Edwin Díaz, and came to the team with a 3-1 record, a 3.00 ERA, and 41 strikeouts across 36 innings with St. Louis. Unfortunately for New York, the change of scenery affected him, just not in the way they had hope it would.
In 22 games and 20 innings with the Mets, Helsley pitched to a 0-3 record, a 7.20 ERA, and struck out 22 batters, collecting a -0.9 bWAR in the process. His struggles also played a role in New York’s major second half collapse, as the team went 21-32 from July 31st on, finishing the season with an 83-79 record and missing the playoffs after starting the season with a 45-24 record.
Following the season, Helsley entered free agency and ultimately departed the team, signing a two-year contract with the Baltimore Orioles.
Meanwhile, on the Cardinals side of the deal, they have seen mixed results from their prospect haul. After starting the season with High-A Peroia, Báez hit .247/.300/.489/.789 with 14 home runs and 41 RBIs, and recently received a promotion to Double-A Springfield and is ranked 19th in their system, per MLB Pipeline.
Dohm’s transition to St. Louis’ farm system has not been an easy one. After throwing to the tune of a 5.11 ERA in five starts for High-A Peoria, he has taken another step back in 2026. In 12 games, which included ten starts, he holds a 1-4 record with an 8.21 ERA and 37 strikeouts over 34 innings. Many scouts pinned him as a potential breakout candidate, but the results have not looked promising. Thus, he has fallen all the way to 30th in their farm system.
Finally, Elissalt has yet to make an appearance in 2026, as he suffered a hip injury in spring training. However, he did have a promising 2025, pitching to a 3.41 ERA across 66 innings and 24 games (ten starts).
Tanner Scott: Miami Marlins to San Diego Padres (2024)
The 2024 Miami Marlins season was over almost as quickly as it started, finishing with a 7-24 record by the end of April, and quickly trading second baseman Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres just four days later on May 4. It would be the first of two major deals the pair would complete that season, striking for the second time on July 30.
The deal would have Miami trading their closer in Tanner Scott, who held a 1.18 ERA and collected 3.0 bWAR in 45.2 innings of work, along with a right-handed reliever in Bryan Hoeing, to San Diego. In exchange, the Padres sent four of their prospects to the Marlins, including left-handed pitcher Robby Snelling (Padres No. 2 prospect), right-handed pitcher Adam Mazur (No. 4), utility player Graham Pauley (No. 5), and infielder Jay Beshears (No. 24).
With Robert Suarez serving as the primary closer, Scott slid in as San Diego’s setup man. While he was not as dominant as he was with Miami, he still pitched fairly well for the Friars across 26.1 innings, going 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA, collecting 31 strikeouts and going four for four in save opportunities, racking up 0.7 bWAR for his contributions.
Enjoying a breakout year himself, Hoeing proved that his inclusion within the deal was not just a throw in piece, as he was dominant down the stretch in 23.2 innings of work for the Padres, going 1-1 with a 1.52 ERA striking out 18 which earned himself 0.8 bWAR.
San Diego ultimately finished the year 93-69, good for second in the National League West behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, and clinching a wild-card spot in the playoffs. They made it all the way to game five of the National League Division Series, but lost to the eventual World Series champions in those very same Dodgers.
Scott ultimately departed the team in free agency to sign a four-year contract with the Dodgers, while Hoeing stayed in the organization, pitching in just five games while missing most of that season with a right shoulder strain, and being shut down for all of 2026 due to tearing an elbow flexor tendon in that very end.
As for Miami, they made out pretty well in the deal themselves. Snelling, the headliner going back to them in the deal, continued his dominance within the Minor Leagues, throwing to a 2.85 ERA in 136 innings across 25 starts in 2025, before leveling up this season in Triple-A Jacksonville.
Across six starts and 29 innings, he went 3-1 with a 1.86 ERA, and 44 strikeouts, and made his Major League debut in May, allowing three runs over five innings, and is currently on the injured list due to a UCL sprain in his left elbow. He currently is Just Baseball’s No. 25 overall prospect.
Mazur pitched the rest of 2024 with Jacksonville, but split time between Triple-A and the Majors in 2025, before undergoing Tommy John surgery during spring training this season, being out until the middle of 2027 at the earliest.
After hitting to a .931 OPS in 2023, Pauley could never refind his offensive prowess that made him a top prospect. He has split time between Miami and Jacksonville the last two seasons, most recently hitting .169/.213/.281/.494 in 34 games with the big club.
Finally, Beshears would gradually improve offensively season by season, but has fully broken out in 2026 with Double-A Pensacola. Playing in 42 games, the righty is slashing .243/.360/.493 with 7 home runs and 20 RBI and an .853 OPS. He is currently outside of the organization’s top 30, but could certainly find his way back on the list by season’s end.
Aroldis Chapman: New York Yankees to Chicago Cubs (2016)
(Set Number: SI598 TK7 )
Believe it or not, this is not Chapman’s first rodeo being a prized target at a trade deadline. He was once traded from the Kansas City Royals to the Texas Rangers in 2023 in what eventually led to a World Series championship, but it was his trade from the New York Yankees to the Chicago Cubs that ended up making a bigger difference.
In what was a surprising down year for the Yankees in 2016, they entered the deadline as a surprising seller, while the Cubs, fresh off a season where they were defeated in the 2015 National League Championship Series by the New York Mets, were on a quest to officially end their 108 year “Curse of the Billy Goat.”
A piece they indentified to help them conquer that quest was none other than Chapman, and on July 25, the pair agreed to a five-player, deal in which the flamethrower would go to the North Side of Chicago in exchange for four players, including right-handed pitcher Adam Warren, along with three prospects that included infielder Gleyber Torres (Cubs No. 1 prospect), outfielder Billy McKinney (No. 6), and outfielder Rashad Crawford.
Once acquired by Chicago, Chapman was nearly lights out with the team in 28 games and 26.2 innings. During that stretch, he went 1-1 with a 1.01 ERA and struck out 46 batters while going 16 for 18 in save opportunities, racking up 1.2 bWAR in the process. He ultimately helped the Cubs win the NL Central division with a 103-58 record.
While he started running out of gas come October, going 2-0 with a 3.45 ERA and striking out 21 across 13 appearances, he did register four saves and ultimately helped Chicago do the unthinkable, break the curse and ultimately win the 2016 World Series over the then Cleveland Indians in seven games.
Following the season, Chapman ultimately resigned with the Yankees to a five-year deal, which means the organization acquired four players while only losing him for roughly three months, though there is little to no regrets on either side with how things panned out.
For New York, Torres of course ultimately got called up to the Yankees in 2018, and played seven seasons with the organization, being named to two All-Star teams and racking up 15.9 bWAR in his career with the team. In 1,076 games played, he slashed .265/.334/.432/.771 with 158 home runs and 533 RBI in his tenure with New York, before departing in free agency after 2024 and signing with the Detroit Tigers, where he has been since
Before being traded back to New York, Warren had been with the Yankees organization previously from 2009 through 2015, pitching in the Majors for four of those seasons. Upon returning, he worked exclusively as a reliever from 2016 until 2018, appearing in 128 games and going 6-5 with a 2.84 ERA and striking out 119 over 117.2 innings.
Warren would ultimately would be traded again at the 2018 deadline, this time to the Seattle Mariners, in exchange for international bonus slot money, and played two more seasons before officially retiring in the middle of the 2021 season.
McKinney’s time with New York is best remember not for what was, but for what could have been. He ranked as high as 19th in their farm system in 2018, and made his Major League debut that same season, but only played in two games before being traded to the Toronto Blue Jays in a package that sent J.A. Happ back to the Yankees.
Since then, McKinney has played in parts of eight seasons from 2018 until 2025, even briefly returning to New York for 48 games in the 2023 season. However, his career never lived up to his initial promise, as he ultimately became a journeyman playing with eight teams and in no more than 116 games in a single season, currently finding himself as a free agent in 2026.
The final piece in Crawford unfortunately never did pan out as a prospect, never hitting higher than a .745 OPS with any of their Minor League after only making it to Double-A Trenton, and ultimately became a free agent after the 2019 season, bouncing around between the Mexican League and Atlantic League before retiring from professional baseball after the 2022 season.
What Does a Chapman Trade Package Look Like?
While at the end of the deal a player is only worth what a team is willing to give up for him, Chris Cotillo of MassLive has a rough idea of what a trade package would look like, which is reported to be “two prospects, including a top-100 type and another piece.”
With Chapman’s value being at an all-time high, and no guarantees that he can continue this success given his age, it would be wise for the Red Sox to move him while the iron strikes hot. Additionally, with how lopsided most of Boston’s games have been (Chapman has only made eight appearances for the team since May 20) and with how the team is in a downward spiral, his services are barely required.
There is no such thing as having too much help in a bullpen, and contending teams will look to do anything in their power to acquire lockdown arms that can help them come October. Already, the Padres have been reportedly “eyeing” Chapman, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, and teams like the Milwaukee Brewers, Mariners, Atlanta Braves, and Arizona Diamondbacks all could certainly use bullpen help as well.
In terms of what prospects Boston could be seeking, they certainly are settled within their pitching department, but lack true offensive prospects, especially those who hit from the right-side. Franklin Arias is currently ranked as Just Baseball’s third ranked prospect in all of baseball, but don’t seem to have any certified bats that follow after. With the dealing of Chapman, they certainly have an opportunity to build a weakness into a strength within just a matter of one move.
What is the consensus, is that Chapman’s days as a Boston Red Sox are coming to an end sooner rather than later, and a trade is only a matter of when, not if. It creates an opportunity for a contender to get a firethrowing left-hander to throw into the back of their bullpen, while giving the Red Sox pieces that they can either develop and strength their farm system, or trade away to fulfill another need, such as a power bat.
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Owen Brown is a social media and writing intern for Just Baseball. In addition, he also serves as a staff writer for Beyond the Monster, a…