Can Sandy Alcantara Still Be the Crown Jewel of the Deadline?

Other than the Rafael Devers blockbuster a few weeks ago, the trade market has remained relatively quiet entering July.

As tame as it’s been, though, that doesn’t mean there’s a shortage of impact names available on the market for contending teams to go after to bolster their rosters for a stretch run.

Traditionally, the focus at the deadline revolves around rental pieces, due to the impact they can make with a cheaper price tag. However, every year, there are deals for names with control as well that can transform teams for longer than merely a stretch run.

Weighing both the rental market and the market for controllable impact arms, there may be plenty of names available. One of these names is Sandy Alcantara of the Miami Marlins.

Now, on the surface, his numbers don’t necessarily scream of a pitcher that a contending team could use as an upgrade. To put things nicely, 2025 has not gone to plan for the former NL Cy Young Award winner.

That being said, there are questions to be asked about nearly every available starter on the market. While this season may not be going Alcantara’s way, it would be foolish to suggest that an arm that’s shown Cy Young-level skills is now somehow suddenly devoid of any potential.

This means that despite the hardships, Alcantara still could be the crown jewel of the deadline.

Sandy Alcantara Could Still Be the Trade Asset To Pursue in July

As mentioned earlier, Alcantara’s stat line this season leaves a lot to be desired, and it’s fair for many to have skepticism as to whether or not he’s the same arm he was before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Through 80.0 innings pitched across 16 starts, the veteran right-hander holds an ERA of 6.98, WHIP of 1.48 and BAA of .260.

His strikeout numbers are down, his walk rate is up and while still above average, his groundball rate has dipped below the 50% mark it exceeded prior to his injury. All the while, his expected metrics sit in the lower quarter of the league (14th percentile xERA and 13th percentile xBA).

It looks bad, nobody’s denying that.

However, he’s not devoid of silver linings. His fastball still remains elite at a 92nd-percentile mark of 97.3 mph. As already mentioned, he’s still keeping the ball on the ground at an above-average rate (66th percentile) even if he is getting hit hard. Then there’s the element of luck, as his 4.69 FIP is more than two runs lower than his near-7.00 ERA.

Then there’s something to be said about his recent form. Entering the month of June, Alcantara had just three starts under his belt (of 11 total) in which he managed to surrender three runs or fewer.

In June, though, a switch seemed to be flipped in the Marlins’ ace, as he opened the month with four consecutive starts surrendering three runs or fewer. He’d go 6.0 innings in three of those and even managed to pull off six innings of three-hit shutout ball in a masterful outing on June 10 in Pittsburgh.

If only his most recent start on June 28 had gone better – he surrendered seven runs off 10 hits in six innings of work – his monthly totals would look far better.

All that to say, a 4.34 ERA, 3.47 WHIP and 1.14 WHIP in June is far more palatable for potential trade suitors to consider putting a package together for.

He might be turning a corner and, again, all while still being a former Cy Young winner with two more years of team control.

One key factor of those two additional years as well is that the second year in 2027 is a club option, so should things continue to go sour for Alcantara in a potential new home, there doesn’t have to be a guaranteed financial commitment for anything beyond 2026, should that new suitor simply want to part ways. That’s just another added incentive for a buyer.

That being said, seeing how things have not been altogether awful for Alcantara this season, paired with his respectable June performance, it’s hard to think a high-6.00 ERA arm is who he’ll be in the future.

Looking at the market, there are plenty of high-performing rental names that will certainly be of intrigue to those in need of boost in the rotation. Framber Valdez is just as much an ace as Alcantara, and unlike Alcantara, he is crafting another gem of a season. However, he’s set to hit free agency for the first time this winter and will likely look to test the market.

Then there’s Zac Gallen, who’s proven to be an ace in the past but is struggling this season. And again, he’ll also be eligible to test the open waters this winter.

Seth Lugo is another thriving option like Valdez, following up his Cy Young runner-up season in 2024 with perhaps an even stronger campaign in ’25. The issue is not only the chance he opts out and becomes a free agent, but that the Kansas City Royals sit in the weird limbo that is the AL Wild Card scene with no set direction on how they’ll approach the deadline quite yet. This could muddy the waters of just how available Lugo actually is.

Then there’s the band of high-performing rental options who sit below ace status but are having years that should entice trade suitors. Names like Tyler Mahle, Andrew Heaney, Merrill Kelly and Nick Martinez could all be available.

Looking at the impact names with control that could be dealt, none have the same current upside for a potential trade partner that Alcantara has.

Freddy Peralta is in the midst of a stellar sub-3.00 ERA campaign, but the Brewers have no competitive incentive to sell ahead of the deadline. All of this is likely making his price tag skyrocket. He also only has a club option remaining for 2026, a whole year of control less than Alcantara, not to mention he also lacks that award-winning season upside.

Then there’s Mitch Keller, who’s the same age as both Alcantara and Peralta and has three years of control after 2025 on an affordable contract. He’s throwing to a respectable 3.90 ERA and 3.33 FIP this season as well. Given his control and performance though, he’ll demand a pretty penny to pry him away from the Pirates’ rebuilding plans.

So, when you take Alcantara’s upside, his contract control and his prior track record and pair it with the fact that his struggles in 2025 might make him a bit of a buy-low candidate, it might be the perfect storm here for a trade opportunity.

Whether or not the Marlins will want to accept a buy-low offer on him is the burning question here. However, if multiple teams start bidding against each other for this buy-low opportunity, perhaps it could drive up the price a bit to minimize some of the loss the Marlins would be selling him at.

The bottom line, though, is that as abnormal as his stat line may seem, the stage is still set for Alcantara to be the crown jewel of this trade deadline, just like he was projected to be at the start of the season.

Stats updated prior to games on June 30.