Will Any of the Star First Basemen Hit the Trade Market?

With the unofficial second half of the season upon us and the trade deadline less than two weeks away, the hot stove will soon be burning up.

And with an NL Wild Card race as congested as ever; multiple teams still within the realm of contention in the AL Wild Card race; and division races within five games in the AL East, AL West and NL Central, there will be no shortage of teams looking to elevate their rosters in preparation for deep postseason runs.

One area where several teams could look to improve? First base. Only eight primary first basemen have 1.5 or more WAR this season, according to Fangraphs. Numerous contenders could use an upgrade at first. Several more could just use the offensive boost that some of the top available first basemen would provide to a contending lineup.

With so many teams on the fringe of contention, there are bound to be some that opt not to buy at the deadline. Instead, they can use this opportunity to sell and gain some pieces for the future in return for stars on expiring contracts.

So, who are the teams that could be in the market for a star first baseman, and which star first basemen will be available for them to acquire?

Which Teams Could Be in the Running for a First Baseman?

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have been surging as of late, propelling themselves back into the postseason conservation. They are sitting just 3.5 games back from an AL Wild Card spot and only a single game behind the Seattle Mariners for the top spot in the AL West.

And the Astros might have the most glaring need for a first baseman in the league. After cutting ties with their $58.5-million man, José Abreu, earlier this season, they’ve been primarily relying on Jon Singleton at first.

Singleton isn’t having a terrible season, all things considered, but he’s merely a replacement-level player. He’s slashing .242/.335/.359 with seven home runs, 32 RBI and a 0.1 fWAR across 257 plate appearances this season.

Houston’s other options available at first base, Joey Loperfido and Trey Cabbage, are both young and have some promise for the future, but they aren’t necessarily at the level the Astros might want from their starting first baseman right now in order to add an eighth straight ALCS appearance to their franchise resume.

New York Yankees

The Yankees have been in a tailspin in recent weeks; their series win against the Baltimore Orioles before the All-Star break was their first since their June 10-12 series against the Kansas City Royals.

New York has been without their usual first baseman Anthony Rizzo since June 18, as he nurses a forearm fracture. And even when he was in the lineup, Rizzo was ineffective at the plate this season, posting only a .630 OPS.

While Ben Rice has performed well at first base since his promotion from the minor leagues, it’s been a small sample size of plate appearances for the 25-year-old rookie. And there are certainly more established names on the market better suited for a team planning a deep postseason run.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have been in a tight divisional race in the AL West, ever since the Astros began their climb back up the standings.

Seattle has also struggled offensively this season, sitting 22nd in the league in position player fWAR and 28th in team OPS.

One contributor to their poor offensive performance has been first baseman Ty France. The former All-Star has been very disappointing this season, posting a slash line of .228/.317/.357 and a -0.3 fWAR.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles’ inclusion on this list has more to do with their current standing in the American League and their plethora of assets than their need at first base.

Baltimore holds the best record in the AL, and with the best farm system in baseball, this team is in a position to really vamp up the roster to make a run at its first World Series since 1983.

The Orioles are hardly in desperate need of a first baseman, but there could be an opportunity to add top talent at the position, making their lineup that much deeper.

Ryan Mountcastle has done a solid job as the O’s starting first baseman this season, slashing .271/.311/.447 with a 1.1 fWAR. And Ryan O’Hearn has been a solid platoon option at DH against right-handed pitching, slashing .276/.341/.473 against righties with a 1.4 fWAR on the season.

Still, there are definitely improvements over Mountcastle available on the market, and O’Hearn has only taken 20 plate appearances against lefties this season, so at-bats at DH could also be available for any first baseman the Orioles acquire.

Who Are the Top First Basemen on the Trade Market?

Pete Alonso (NYM)

Pete Alonso is one of the most prolific power hitters in our game today, and he’s coming off of back-to-back 40-plus home run seasons.

But, being in his final year of team control, and with the Mets not being the juggernaut that owner Steve Cohen anticipated ahead of the 2023 season, there are questions as to whether the Mets will look to cash in on Alonso’s value if an extension between the two sides seems out of reach.

Alonso is a Scott Boras client, and the famed agent is known for pushing the players he represents to test the open market when they are eligible to become unrestricted free agents.

So, the Mets may look to capitalize on the All-Star first baseman now and get a return for him while they still can – before he tests the free agent market and they’re potentially left with nothing but a compensatory draft pick.

Alonso is having a down year in many ways this season. His power numbers are lower than what many have come to expect of him. He’s on pace for a career-low in slugging percentage and only has 19 home runs through 95 games, putting him on pace for his first season with fewer than 40 homers since 2021.

Still, the fact that he has a proven track record when it comes to power could be intriguing for teams looking for a top-notch rental option at first base.

Houston is a team that comes to mind as a potential trade fit for Alonso. The fact that he’s a free agent at the end of the year means the Astros wouldn’t have any obligation to break the bank beyond this year if they don’t want to raise their tax bill in 2025.

And imagine how Alonso would fare hitting toward the Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid Park.

The prospect return would also not look as heavy as it would’ve during the offseason, given that Alonso will be a rental for just the final two months of the season.

The Mets’ turnaround this season, which has put them back in the NL Wild Card race, has been in large part due to the leadership of veterans like Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo. With Lindor and Nimmo leading the way, and Alonso having a down year, it makes you wonder if the Mets feel they’re capable of trading their star first baseman and still competing for a Wild Card spot this year.

That is a big question: Can the Mets compete without Alonso? Maybe. But will they?

The fact that they’re a game up on Arizona and San Diego for the final NL Wild Card spot makes me believe they’re going to continue to let the good times roll and not subtract from the good thing they’ve got going for them right now.

Christian Walker (ARI)

Christian Walker is in a very similar situation to Alonso. He’s currently in the middle of his final year of club control on a team that is well within the NL postseason picture.

The difference is that Walker is in the midst of what might be a career year.

Walker is currently slashing .264/.343/.495 with 22 home runs, 58 RBI and a 2.9 fWAR through 97 games in 2024.

As much as Walker may fit the profile for a trade candidate, given where Arizona stands right now in the Wild Card picture and the fact that they’re the reigning NL pennant winners, it seems like keeping him would make the most sense in this scenario.

But unlike Alonso, Walker will reach free agency on the wrong side of 30, as he’s currently 33 years old. So, the question comes into play as to whether or not Arizona sees a mid-to-late-30s Walker as part of their long-term plan.

Still, I tend to think that Arizona will attempt to continue to build upon the success they established last season, which means they would prefer to keep Walker rather than cut ties with him.

Yandy Díaz (TBR)

The Tampa Bay Rays seemingly solidified their stance as willing sellers when they traded Aaron Civale to the Milwaukee Brewers earlier this month.

While names like Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena have come up in trade rumors since before the season began, Yandy Díaz could be in the trade conversation as well.

Díaz is a far cry away from the .330 average, .932 OPS and 5.0 fWAR he posted in 2023. In 2024, he’s dropped down to a .273 average with a .725 OPS and a 0.8 fWAR through 94 games. However, he is only a year removed from winning a Silver Slugger and a batting title.

Tampa Bay has never been shy to accept its small market status and sell players before they demand big contracts. This team has a reputation for making savvy moves on the trade market, often coming up big in trade returns after dealing away marketable stars.

Thus, now might be the best time to capitalize on Díaz, given the unpredictability of his future production due to his down year in 2024. He still has All-Star value and two-and-a-half years of team control remaining at very cheap rates, so the Rays could fetch a serious return for their first baseman.

What’s more, suitors might like the productivity Díaz can provide at first base without relying too heavily on sheer power, which is often the norm at the position. He has just eight homers in 94 games this season and has only hit 15-plus home runs once in his career, when he hit 22 last season.

Teams like Seattle or Baltimore, for example, could see the intrigue in a hitter who is productive beyond his power, given that they play in more pitcher-friendly ballparks. Meanwhile, teams like the Yankees might see an opportunity to build on the power Díaz has tapped into more recently, given the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.

And with Just Baseball’s No. 22 overall prospect Xavier Isaac on his way up to play first base in the coming years, the Rays have a potential replacement lined up. So, trading Díaz continues to make more sense for the already-selling Rays.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)

The Toronto Blue Jays are arguably the most disappointing team in MLB this season.

They currently hold a record of 44-52, good for dead last in the AL East. They are only ahead of the three bottom-dwellers in the American League: the Los Angeles Angels, the Oakland Athletics and the Chicago White Sox.

The direction Toronto should take at this year’s trade deadline seems as clear as ever: This team should sell. But how aggressive of a seller are the Jays willing to be?

If the Blue Jays go all out and embrace a full rebuild, their lone 2024 All-Star, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., could be a name on the way out.

Guerrero is up there with the likes of Luis Robert Jr., Mason Miller and even his teammate Bo Bichette, as the biggest stars who could be on the move before July 30.

And there is certainly a strong case for the Blue Jays to trade him.

After his AL MVP runner-up season in 2021, Guerrero has struggled to regain the same form. But in 2024, Guerrero is putting up the highest batting average (.288) and highest OBP (.361) since his MVP finalist year. He’s also managed to exceed his 2023 fWAR in just 96 games so far this season.

If the Blue Jays are planning to capitalize on Guerrero’s value, this is likely the time to do so, given the dramatic improvements he’s seen this season and the fact that he still has a year-and-a-half of control left.

Moreover, the Blue Jays’ farm system could use some revamping. One of their four prospects to appear on Just Baseball’s latest Top 100 list, left-hander Ricky Tiedemann, has been battling injury in 2024. Another, third baseman Orelvis Martinez, recently received an 80-game suspension for PED use. A nice haul for their star first baseman could provide the boost this system needs.

However, the Jays front office has been known to be passive in their roster-constructing endeavors. They were buyers at the last two deadlines but failed to make significant splashes. This past offseason, they put all their efforts into the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, and their biggest additions ended up being Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner.

But, at the end of the day, president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins are on the hot seat, given they haven’t won a playoff game since they took over for Alex Anthopoulos after the team’s 2016 ALCS run. So, an all-out move toward a rebuild could better position them to keep their jobs next season, since at least the team would finally have a clear direction for the future.

Earlier this year, Atkins dismissed the idea of trading non-rental assets, including Guerrero.

Yet, if it’s an all-out rebuild, the Blue Jays will have to consider parting with the 25-year-old Guerrero, whose age and contract control all but guarantee he would fetch the biggest return out of anyone the Blue Jays have to offer.

Cody Bellinger (CHC)

Bellinger is probably the most interesting option of the players discussed here, as his primary position is not first base.

But, given his strong defensive abilities in the outfield and his ability to play first, the flexible Bellinger might be one of the most intriguing rental options on the trading block. His market (should the Cubs decide to sell) will not be limited to teams looking to add at one specific position.

Bellinger holds a couple of opt-out clauses in the contract he signed with the Cubs this offseason, meaning he could head back to free agency at the end of the year.

But, when he signed that contract, he was coming off a year in which he slashed .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 97 RBI. This season has not seen the same sort of production from Bellinger; his current slash line through 79 games played is .269/.331/.410.

So, the $27.5 million player option for 2025 looks a lot nicer to Bellinger than it probably did before the season, especially considering he has another player option for the 2026 season after that.

This will probably make Bellinger more difficult to trade – player options are player-friendly, after all – but there is a chance it could make him a more intriguing trade chip for buyers who are interested in keeping him around beyond the 2024 season.

As things stand now, the Cubs are still within reach of an NL Wild Card spot, sitting just 3.5 games back of the Mets. Given how close they came to the postseason in 2023, the temptation for a big-market team like Chicago to push for the postseason and buy at the deadline might be too strong.

With one of the strongest farm systems in baseball (Chicago has six prospects on Just Baseball’s Top 100), the cupboards certainly aren’t bare if it turns out the Cubs want to be serious buyers ahead of the July 30 deadline.

However, five teams currently separate the Cubs from the Mets, which may be too many for Chicago to jump at this stage of the season. And if that’s the case, a guy who is not guaranteed to return in 2025 might be the best option for the Cubs to cash in on while they can.