Who Will Be the Orioles’ Breakout Star in 2025?

The Orioles have ascended through the ranks of Major League Baseball swiftly over the past few years. Exciting homegrown talent has become quality play at the highest level for many of the Orioles’ recent top prospects.

Some attribute this developmental success to their rebuild, which helped lay a nice foundation. From 2019-22, the Orioles picked in the top five in all four drafts. They even had the number one overall selection twice. Adley Rutschman (#1, 2019), Heston Kjerstad (#2, 2020), Colton Cowser (#5, 2021), and Jackson Holliday (#1, 2022).

Over the past few years, the Orioles have had a mix of top prospects as well as little-known acquisitions that have made a huge impact.

Rutschman and Cowser have both made their names known as Oriole regulars. Kjerstad, Holliday, and others look to be the next homegrown success story.

In this piece, we will examine some candidates for the Orioles’ next breakout star in this upcoming season.

Recent History of Oriole Breakouts

2022

The image of the Orioles completely changed when they called up their franchise catcher Adley Rutschman for his major league debut in May 2022.

The team instantly went from a cellar dweller to a winner. Rutschman posted a .806 OPS and 135 wRC+ en route to finishing as Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2022. Rutschman is still regarded as one of the best backstops in baseball, even despite a down year by his standards in 2024.

In that same season, the Orioles promoted 27-year-old Felix Bautista for his major league debut. He was a revelation. Bautista posted a 2.19 ERA in 65.2 innings and struck out 88 batters. This dominance earned him the closer role and he nailed down 48 saves between the 2022-23 season before tearing his UCL. He is expected back as the Orioles’ closer in 2025.

2023

The 42nd overall pick of the 2019 draft, Gunnar Henderson won AL Rookie of the Year honors during the 2023 season. Now, Henderson is the best player on the Orioles and among the best in baseball.

Even though he may have broken out in the minor leagues and garnered himself #1 prospect honors before his debut, it’s still fair to call Henderson a breakout story. If he was such a sure thing, why was he not a first-round pick?

In that same season, a reliever with just 18 career innings pitched prior in the MLB earned a bid to the All-Star Game. Yennier Cano, acquired by Baltimore in the Jorge Lopez trade with Minnesota, has been a huge part of the Baltimore bullpen. Cano has thrown 132.2 innings to a 2.58 ERA in two full seasons with the Orioles the past two years.

In December 2019, the Orioles added right-handed starter Kyle Bradish from the Angels in the Dylan Bundy trade. In the 2023 season, he proved to be a frontline starter. Bradish threw 168.2 innings with a 2.83 ERA and 3.27 FIP. His presence will be missed greatly in the Orioles’ 2025 rotation, after undergoing Tommy John surgery in the summer of 2024.

2024

Cowser announced his presence to the Orioles in this past season, finishing as Rookie of the Year runner-up. Cowser proved to be an above-average hitter and defender in his first full season, posting a 120 wRC+ and 11 outs above average. With Cedric Mullins struggling offensively, Cowser’s strong defensive showing gives the Orioles flexibility to play him in center field or a corner spot.

Infielder Jordan Westburg was finally given a lion’s share of at-bats at the major league level and made the most of it. Westburg, the 30th pick in the 2020 draft, impressed in the minor leagues but was not considered to be one of the very best prospects in the game.

In his first full season, Westburg was an All-Star. He slashed .264/.312/.481 in 107 games despite missing time in the second half due to a hand fracture.

Starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez, the 11th pick of the 2018 draft, was drafted by the Orioles’ previous regime but was developed entirely by their current one.

After a dominant minor league career, Rodriguez had some difficulties in his first major league season in 2023. In 2024, he seemed to have righted the path before a lat strain would cost him the final two months of the season. With Corbin Burnes heading to the Arizona Diamondbacks, Rodriguez appears poised to be the Orioles’ next ace.

Breakout Candidates for 2025

Jackson Holliday

Holliday, 21, is still the only player that the current Orioles’ front office regime has selected out of high school with their first draft pick. As soon as the Oriole coaching staff got the chance to work with him, they felt that they had a special talent.

Ascending through four levels of the minor leagues was no problem for the 19-year-old at the time, who reached Triple-A the year after being drafted.

At the start of last season, the masses clamored for the Orioles to make Holliday a part of their Opening Day roster. The Orioles did not oblige but did promote him shortly thereafter to debut in Boston on April 10.

Holliday was given 36 major league plate appearances in his first stint before deciding he was overmatched. He slashed .059/.111/.059 with two walks and 18 strikeouts in those 10 games.

He then returned to Triple-A, where a .904 OPS in 73 games was no sweat for Holliday. The Orioles decided to give him another shot. From July 31 on, Holliday slashed .218/.285/.365 with five home runs in 50 games in the major leagues.

There’s no doubt that it was a difficult season for Holliday, but many of the Orioles’ key pieces struggled in their first taste of the major leagues.

Henderson’s batting average was below the Mendoza line for the first 42 games of his eventual Rookie of the Year season. Rutschman’s OPS did not stay above .700 until the 45th game of his rookie season. Cowser batted .115 in 26 games in 2023.

Holliday was younger than all of these players at his debut.

Adjustments need to be made, but who better to trust than the player who destroyed minor league pitching while counterparts his age are still in college ball?

Heston Kjerstad

Kjerstad, who will be 26 on Opening Day, has yet to see consistent playing time despite dominating minor-league pitching.

In 147 MLB plate appearances, Kjerstad has been a productive hitter. He’s slashed .248/.336/.411 with six home runs while playing inconsistently.

In Triple-A this past season, Kjerstad raked. He hit .303 with a .988 OPS and 16 home runs in 56 games. Kjerstad has shown that he has what it takes to contribute to this team with the bat.

Kjerstad’s main problem has been an abundance of competition. In 2023 the outfield consisted of Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, and Austin Hays. Then, in 2024, Colton Cowser asserted himself into the mix, before Hays would depart at the deadline. Ryan O’Hearn’s emergence has clogged the designated hitter spot with another lefty on the roster.

Now, in 2025, Anthony Santander appears on his way out. However, the Orioles didn’t wait long to ink a new outfield option, Tyler O’Neill, to a three-year contract.

To keep a player as productive as Kjerstad has been in Triple-A in 2025 seems like malpractice, so the O’s have to keep him on the roster or they could always trade him.

If Kjerstad remains an Oriole, he’ll rotate between the corner outfield spots and designated hitter role. Mullins, O’Neill, and Ryan Mountcastle are the most likely players that Kjerstad could impact, given that his playing time is most likely to come against right-handed pitching.

Kjerstad has great upside as a power hitter but has proven to be nothing more than an average outfield defender. He is likely to start the season as a bench player.

If any of his competition gives him a window to be an everyday player due to injury or poor performance, Kjerstad may take their role for good.

Coby Mayo

Mayo, 23, is the eighth-ranked prospect according to Just Baseball. A fourth-round pick in the 2020 draft out of high school, Mayo landed a well-over slot value $1.75 million signing bonus.

The Orioles bought out his college commitment years and it has certainly paid off.

In Triple-A this past season, Mayo slashed .287/.364/.562 with 22 home runs and a 135 wRC+ in 390 plate appearances.

Mayo did make a major league debut this season, but it felt forced. When Westburg and Ramon Urias both went on the injured list simultaneously, the Orioles needed infield depth. This desperation for in-house depth caused them to turn to Mayo.

Mayo received very inconsistent playing time and never got into a groove.

In 46 plate appearances, Mayo hit .098 with a .293 OPS. The Orioles chose to start waiver claim Emmanuel Rivera over Mayo most of the time, as he was a more established option.

It will be an uphill battle for Mayo to be the Orioles’ breakout star of 2025 because, like Kjerstad, he has loads of competition.

As a corner infielder, the Orioles have Westburg, Mountcastle, and O’Hearn inked into everyday roles. Urias will likely make the team as a reserve infielder. Kjerstad and Rutschman will vie for at-bats as the designated hitter. Rivera was tendered a contract by the team and remains rostered to serve as depth.

Injuries to his competition would help him get playing time more quickly, but ultimately it’s up to Mayo to force the Orioles’ hand. He is a top prospect and clearly a part of the team’s future.

If Mayo shows the Orioles this spring that they need to get his bat in the lineup every day, the team may have no choice but to trade Mountcastle.

Tomoyuki Sugano

Sugano, 35, signed a one-year, $13 million contract to make his MLB debut in 2025. He comes with a strong track record from the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization (NPB) in Japan.

In 12 seasons as a member of the Yomiuri Giants, Sugano has a career 2.45 ERA in 1873.1 innings pitched. The NPB is a highly respected foreign league and many consider it the next best competition-wise after MLB.

Sugano has won three MVP awards and two Sawamura awards, the league’s best pitcher award. He is a legendary figure in Japanese baseball.

In his career, Sugano has struck out just 7.7 batters per nine innings but walked just 1.7 per nine. His fastball velocity is below average for a starting pitcher, but his six-pitch mix keeps batters on their toes.

Sugano must rely on his excellent command to navigate the new challenge of major league lineups. He faces good competition in the NPB, but the MLB will be even less forgiving.

As far as value goes, why not take a chance on Sugano? The Orioles only have two real above-average starters in Rodriguez and Zach Eflin, so Sugano’s track record alone will give him a chance to start out of the gate.

Perhaps Sugano’s finesse-based arsenal won’t translate to the MLB at his age and the two sides walk away after this one-year deal.

Or, perhaps Sugano proves that his legendary command is no joke. Maybe, he becomes a solid pitcher for the Orioles. That would certainly be the mold of a breakout star that the Orioles need.