Who Will Be the Baltimore Orioles’ Next Ace?

On February 2, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles sent shockwaves through Major League Baseball by acquiring ace starting pitcher Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers.

Following a 101-win season in 2023, the Orioles needed to make a splash in the pitching market and opted to use some of their prospect capital to add Burnes, a one-year rental.

Burnes proved to fortify the Orioles’ rotation better than anyone else has in the 21st century.

This past season, the right-hander gave them 194 1/3 innings with a 2.92 ERA and earned a career-best 15 wins. In his lone playoff start, Burnes threw eight strong innings of one-run ball before the Orioles were quickly bounced from the field.

Now, Burnes is out on the open market.

Along with Burnes, the Orioles also lost their ace from 2023, Kyle Bradish, to Tommy John surgery in June. Given Burnes’ demand and Bradish’s lengthy recovery timeline, it is likely that neither will be on the team’s active roster come Opening Day 2025.

So, where do the Orioles go from here?

They still have former top prospect Grayson Rodriguez, who should recover fully from his oblique injury. Trade deadline acquisition Zach Eflin is a rotation lock, but the rest seems undecided. Many speculate that Baltimore will be looking to add at least one impact arm externally this offseason.

Just before the start of the Winter Meetings, the Orioles committed to their first multi-year contract under President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias’ tenure, signing outfielder Tyler O’Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million contract.

The Orioles are showing a willingness to invest in this core, and that investment can’t stop with O’Neill and catcher Gary Sanchez (who they just signed to a one-year deal). For the Orioles to really contend for a World Series in 2025, pitching has to be a priority this offseason.

Are the Orioles Out on Corbin Burnes?

The Orioles could bring back Corbin Burnes, but they will have to fork over the largest contract in franchise history to outbid the big-market clubs that missed on Juan Soto.

Given that Burnes is the next best available entity, many believe that he is more likely to sign elsewhere. The owners of these big-market teams that lost out on Soto will be looking to appease their disappointed fans. They may decide to overpay Burnes as a consolation prize.

The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Giants all appear interested in the former Cy Young award winner.

The Orioles may be more competitive in pursuing a top-end free agent this offseason. David Rubenstein, the new majority owner of the Orioles, would like to win over the trust of his fanbase. He may see signing Burnes as an opportunity to do just that.

The team is ripe with young talent and the front office is committed to winning now.

The Orioles figure to give what they deem a competitive offer to Burnes and former Braves lefty Max Fried. After all, the Orioles had one of the lowest payrolls in baseball in 2024, so they feasibly should be able to sign anybody.

Fried is unlikely to get as much money as Burnes but will garner just as much interest.

Every competitor would like to add to their pitching staff this offseason, making it statistically unlikely that the Orioles get either of the two best remaining options. To add rotation depth, they may be shopping in the tier of starting pitchers below Burnes and Fried this offseason.

Top Free Agents to Pursue

Corbin Burnes and Max Fried are likely out of the Orioles’ price range. Starters like Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, and Luis Severino are off the board. Baltimore must act quickly in the starting pitching market to land an arm to replace their ace.

A recent report from the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal detailed that the O’s are allegedly “reluctant” to pursue pitchers who declined a qualifying offer. This strategy will complicate their pursuit of quality starting pitching, if true.

Here are some arms that could be intriguing as frontline options in Baltimore next year.

Nathan Eovaldi

Eovaldi, who will be 35 by the start of the 2025 season, seems to best fit the Orioles’ mold of what they are looking for in a starting pitcher this offseason. He is a seasoned veteran with a history of success on World Series runs with two different teams.

The Orioles do not have to concern themselves with losing draft compensation to sign the righty. Eovaldi was not eligible to receive a qualifying offer.

Eovaldi was an anchor for a Rangers rotation that had been in flux for much of the past two years. Between the regular season and the Rangers’ 2023 World Series run, he threw over 170 innings in each of his two seasons in Texas.

This might show the Orioles that he can make up for the innings lost by Burnes signing elsewhere.

Eovaldi does well limiting walks (6.0%) and inducing chases (32.2%). Since he prevented free passes, Eovaldi’s strikeout minus walk percentage (K-BB%) of 17.8% was better than that of Burnes (17% K-BB%) in 2024. It’s common knowledge that Burnes saw a decrease in his strikeout rate last season.

While he is a solid addition to any rotation, calling 35-year-old Eovaldi an ace is a stretch.

He has not posted an ERA below 3.50 in the past decade and surrenders much more hard contact than Burnes. Signing Eovaldi means that in a three-game playoff series, the Orioles would have three reliable options.

Our own Ryan Finkelstein predicted that the Orioles would sign Eovaldi to a three-year, $63 million contract. You can read his entire offseason predictions piece here.

Walker Buehler

Given the Orioles’ reported concerns with signing a pitcher who has a qualifying offer attached, Buehler, 30, could be a fit.

The Dodgers did not extend the $21 million qualifying offer to the righty, despite him being eligible to receive one. Despite a history of ace-like performance, Buehler did not perform well in 2024.

Buehler underwent the second Tommy John surgery of his career in August of 2022, causing him to miss all of the 2023 season. The results following his return were not pretty. In 75.1 innings, Buehler posted a 5.38 ERA with a career-low K% (18.5%) and a career-high BB% (8.1%).

While Buehler missed plenty of time in 2024 due to injury, it was a hip injury that put him on the shelf, so there can be hope that moving forward he can return to the pitcher he used to be. At least when it comes to his ability to eat innings.

Buehler threw 207.2 innings with a 2.47 ERA and a 26% strikeout rate in 2021, but since has regressed. Stuff+ graded his fastball in 2021 as above average (115 grade, 100 is average), but in 2022 and 2024 his fastball was graded in the 80s.

It’s difficult for a pitcher to be productive with a below-average fastball. In Buehler’s case, he had one and then got hurt. Perhaps the Orioles could bring him on board as a reclamation project.

It’s not usually a good thing to focus on small sample sizes, but Buehler did have some quality playoff performances. A rough outing in the NLDS saw him surrender six runs in five innings against the Padres, but he was stellar after that.

In the NLCS and World Series, Buehler threw 10 scoreless innings with 13 strikeouts. He also proved to be clutch by shutting down the Yankees in the World Series-clinching ninth inning of game five.

Buehler was one of the most promising young pitchers in the game not long ago. He may not be an ace now, but that production could still be in there.

Nick Pivetta

Pivetta, who will be 32 by the start of the 2025 season, is an intriguing fall-back option for any team that misses out on Burnes or Fried. Pivetta was given the $21 million qualifying offer by the Red Sox, which surprised some. The Orioles would be on the hook for draft compensation if they sign Pivetta.

Pivetta is not seen as an ace by many, but he might be the closest to becoming one out of any of these four pitchers. Pivetta has some typical predictors of pitching productivity working in his favor.

The right-hander has been well above average at recording strikeouts recently and cut his walk rate a great deal in 2024. Pivetta’s K-BB% last season was 22.9%, a career-best. Though he didn’t pitch enough innings to qualify, only four qualified starting pitchers had a better K-BB% than Pivetta.

Pivetta also has a fastball that grades very well on Stuff+. Despite having below-average velocity, his fastball graded 122 on Stuff+ in 2024.

This is likely because it has much more rise than the average fastball, causing the pitch to be perceived as faster than it is. The fastball isn’t his only strong offering, his sweeper graded out to be an excellent 174 by the model.

Pivetta has been reasonably durable over the past four seasons with Boston. He has thrown at least 140 innings in each of those seasons but has not thrown 150 innings since 2022.

Pivetta also has never recorded an ERA below 4.00 in any single season. However, Pivetta’s xFIP has been in the 3.50s in each of the past two seasons, indicating potential.

The right-hander seems to be a great option for the Orioles, who are looking to replace an impact arm. If the team is looking for someone with an ace ceiling this year, Pivetta might be that guy.

Sean Manaea

Manaea, a 33-year-old on Opening Day, revitalized his career with the Mets in 2024. This success triggered the Mets to issue Manaea a qualifying offer, which he declined and hit the open market.

Like Pivetta, this may dissuade the Orioles from making a serious play for Manaea’s services.

A longtime Athletic, Manaea struggled greatly when he was brought in by San Diego in 2022. He threw 158 innings with a career-worst 4.96 ERA, then went to the Giants.

Manaea only made ten starts in San Francisco, making many appearances out of the bullpen. He finished 2023 with a 4.44 ERA in 117.2 innings pitched.

The Mets scooped Manaea last off-season, giving him a two-year, $28 million deal with an opt-out. He chose to opt out of the $13.5 million that he was owed and declined the $21 million qualifying offer because he thinks that his stellar 2024 season will land him a longer-term deal.

This past season, Manaea threw 181.2 innings with a 3.47 ERA and a 24.9% strikeout rate. His 16.4% K-BB% was his best as a full-season starter since 2021 but was slightly worse than what he posted in his hybrid role in 2023. Manaea changed his arm angle in 2024 to 22 degrees, the lowest of his career. For reference, Chris Sale’s arm angle in 2024 was 11 degrees.

Despite the change in mechanics, Manaea’s only pitch that graded above 100 on Stuff+ this past season was his sweeper, grading out at 101. Manaea has a below-average fastball and arsenal overall, according to the metric.

A perk to signing Manaea is that he is the only lefty of these four pitchers mentioned. The Orioles have a righty-heavy staff, so perhaps bringing in another southpaw could be appealing enough that the O’s are willing to forfeit draft compensation to sign him.

Could the Orioles Swing a Trade for Garrett Crochet?

Given that the Orioles have a lot of young talent between the MLB and Triple-A levels, they could be a front-runner to acquire Crochet, the outstanding lefty on the White Sox.

Crochet, 25, also expressed interest in a long-term extension with whatever team does choose to acquire his services. He is under team control through 2026.

Acquiring Crochet comes with risk. Coming into the 2024 season he had thrown just 24 innings since the start of 2022. He threw 146 innings in 2024, obliterating his previous career-high of 54.1 innings in 2021. The White Sox load management program slowed down his pace of innings pitched in the second half to try and prevent injury.

There’s no doubt that he truly can be an ace, based on his results this past season. Crochet pitched to a 3.58 ERA, but his 2.38 xFIP indicates he was much more dominant than his ERA says.

Crochet’s 35.1% strikeout rate was in the top 2% of all pitchers. He didn’t sacrifice control either, as his 5.5% walk rate yielded an amazing 29.6% K-BB%.

Why would the White Sox want to move a left-hander with the potential of being baseball’s best?

They are coming off a dreadful 41-121 season and do not intend to extend Crochet. Their time controlling his services is not in line with their window to contend, so they hope to cash in on his value for prospect capital.

Our own Elijah Evans just recently wrote about the potential of Crochet getting traded, with full mock trades for each of his top landing spots. Here is the deal featured in the article:

Potential Trade Package: OF Enrique Bradfield (JB MLB No. 71), OF Dylan Beavers, LHP Cade Povich, C Creed Willems

A trade like this would be ideal for the Orioles. They would not have to part with their top prospects, catcher Samuel Basallo (JB MLB No. 8) or infielder Coby Mayo (JB MLB No. 9). Both of these prospects come with high ceilings and could make an impact for the Orioles in 2025.

If the White Sox demanded one of these two headline the deal, the Orioles might balk at finalizing a Crochet trade.

The headliner of this projected package is Bradfield, a former Vanderbilt product that the Orioles selected in the first round in 2023. Bradfield is lightning-fast, his speed and defense could play in the MLB immediately. His bat has been coming around, but it is unlikely that he ever supplies much in the way of power.

Given that Colton Cowser has already proven to be an elite outfielder, he could man center field even if the O’s choose to trade Bradfield and eventually move on from Cedric Mullins. Losing Bradfield would not be too detrimental.

Povich factored into the Orioles rotation in 2024 but struggled. He had a solid month in September, but the Orioles could afford to trade him if it meant getting an ace in return.

Willems and Beavers have both proven to be quality prospects, holding some trade value. Unfortunately for them, there is no clear path to playing time in Baltimore with all of their young big leaguers already there. This trade could give both of them a chance to thrive in the MLB.

Crochet is the most skilled pitcher available that could fill the absence of Burnes, when healthy. If the Orioles cannot acquire Crochet, perhaps Marlins LHP Jesus Luzardo or Cardinals RHP Sonny Gray would be a pivot.

Ultimately Grayson Rodriguez May Be the Ace

If the Orioles do not make that blockbuster trade for Garrett Crochet, their best chance at finding an ace might already be in their clubhouse.

Rodriguez, 25, is a former top prospect and was the Orioles’ first-round selection in 2018. The 6’5″ right-hander has shown flashes of ace upside, but it didn’t all come together in 2024. Rodriguez had that aforementioned oblique injury, which cost him the final two months of the season.

In 2024, Rodriguez threw 116.2 innings with a 3.86 ERA and an above-average 26.5% strikeout rate. His 19.1% K-BB% was better than any other starting pitcher for the Orioles. Rodriguez has struggled with giving up home runs, but that may have more to do with pitch sequencing. He has tremendous stuff.

Rodriguez’s fastball grades 113 in the Stuff+ model, but his change-up (140), slider (118), and curveball (114) all grade even better.

His ability to manipulate the spin and movement of the baseball is really special based on the results of this model. There cannot be many, if any, feasible options for the Orioles to acquire whose pure stuff is better than Rodriguez’s.

Even if the Orioles bring in any free-agent pitcher, outside of Burnes, Rodriguez may be more effective than any. He will enter his third major league season and is oozing with potential.

Rodriguez seems to be the most likely answer to the question: who is the Orioles’ next ace?