Would the Orioles Have Been Better Off Waiting for Anthony Santander?

After spending eight seasons as a member of the Baltimore Orioles, switch-hitting outfielder Anthony Santander signed a five-year, $92.5 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays.

The deal includes an opt-out after year three, but the team can void his opt-out by exercising a club option for a sixth season. There are deferrals involved as well, to lighten the load on the Blue Jays’ payroll.

The Orioles extended Santander a qualifying offer that would have paid him just over $21 million, but he turned it down. They will receive a compensatory draft selection after the completion of the first round as a result of this move.

After Santander declined the qualifying offer, many, including our own Ryan Finkelstein, predicted that his eventual contract would net him over $100 million. You can find that contract prediction here.

Yet, Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias seemed unwilling to meet those demands. The team politely showed themselves out of contention for his services when he rejected that qualifying offer.

Shortly thereafter, the O’s pivoted by signing Tyler O’Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million contract. They didn’t want to lose out on signing a valuable outfielder, so they snapped up what they thought was a good price for a needed right-handed power bat.

With Santander’s deferrals taken into account, he ended up netting an average annual value (AAV) of just under $14 million. O’Neill’s AAV is $16.5 million. Many of the Baltimore faithful are displeased with the allocation of funds to O’Neill when Santander ended up signing for a similar price.

Now that the dust has settled on both of these moves, would the Orioles have been better off waiting for Santander this offseason?

Current Orioles Outfield Options

Replacing the 2024 version of Anthony Santander in the Orioles’ lineup will be a difficult task. Here are Santander’s 2024 stats, as well as his 2025 projections, courtesy of Steamer:

Anthony Santander’s Stats and Projections

A premier power bat and above-average hitter overall, Santander’s worth in the short term is clear. The Orioles, as well as other teams, likely had their worries about how he would age, explaining their reluctance to give him a long-term deal.

With that being said, let’s look at the Orioles’ current outfield options to see if they’ll be able to make up for the loss of their team home run leader from 2024.

Tyler O’Neill

2025 Steamer Projections: 544 PA, .233/.317/.435, 25 HR, 75 RBI, 115 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR

O’Neill, 29, the Orioles’ most impactful free agent signing, was brought in as Santander’s primary replacement in 2025.

Following a successful 2024 season that saw him hit 31 home runs in 113 games, O’Neill figures to bat in the heart of the Orioles’ lineup. It will help him that the left field fence at Camden Yards has been moved in from its 2022-24 dimensions.

On a per-game basis, O’Neill does not appear to be too different from Santander. He is projected to be a minor downgrade in most major hitting statistics listed above.

However, the primary issue with O’Neill is his health. He has eclipsed the 400-plate appearance plateau just twice in his seven-year career. Due to injuries, he has never reached the 544 plate appearances that he is currently projected to get in 2025.

In each of the seasons that saw him play at least 100 games, he hit at least 30 home runs. However, it seems unlikely to count on a full season’s production from the powerful righty bat.

If O’Neill can reach his projections and play ~140 games, Santander’s departure will not feel like as big of a deal. But that would be counting on O’Neill having a career-best season in terms of health, which is far from certain.

Colton Cowser

2025 Steamer Projections: 562 PA, .241/.331/.420, 21 HR, 68 RBI, 117 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR

Colton Cowser, who will be 25 on Opening Day, is the Orioles’ most intriguing outfield piece. After finishing as the American League Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2024, he will be expected to shoulder the load of Santander’s departure.

A left-handed bat, Cowser went through his peaks and valleys as a rookie. Overall, he has encouraging power metrics. His raw power was showcased on a team-best 443-ft. home run off of Phillies ace Zack Wheeler.

Cowser was in the top 75% of the league in barrel rate, hard-hit percentage, and bat speed. Those are impressive feats for a rookie.

An area where Cowser can improve in his sophomore season is the frequency with which he strikes out. His 30.7% strikeout rate was in the bottom 10% of all batters. This may have been due to an all-or-nothing approach that fueled his barrel rate but also caused a lot of swing-and-miss.

Cowser is also an outstanding outfield defender. Primarily navigating the once-spacious left field at Camden Yards and occasionally center field, Cowser posted 11 outs above average (OAA). That mark was in the top 4% of defenders at any position in baseball.

Whether the Orioles signed Santander, O’Neill, or both, Cowser was going to be a huge part of their outfield picture.

Cedric Mullins

2025 Steamer Projections: 544 PA, .244/.311/.408, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 107 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR

Cedric Mullins, 30, is prepared to assume the role of longest-tenured Oriole with Santander’s departure. He’s now a few years removed from his 30/30 season in 2021 but has posted a wRC+ between 99 and 108 in each of the past three seasons.

The batted ball results weren’t particularly strong in 2024. Mullins was in the bottom 20% in baseball in various metrics, including xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. He does hit his fair share of pull-side fly balls, which has helped him hit for some power.

Mullins is a strong defender and makes an impact on the base paths. His three OAA were in the top 16% of all defenders last year, and he stole over 30 bases for the third time in four seasons.

He is likely to assume the role of Opening Day center fielder, but his role as a full-time starter is no longer as safe as it was. Cowser is proving to be a capable center field option. Also, with the offensive potential of the player listed below, Mullins will have to hit his way to regular playing time.

Heston Kjerstad

2025 Steamer Projections: 362 PA, .248/.318/.418, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 111 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR

Heston Kjerstad, who will be 26 by Opening Day, was the second-overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft. Despite debuting in 2023, he has yet to accumulate the requisite number of at-bats to eclipse rookie status. Even so, Kjerstad is no longer officially rookie-eligible due to his time on the team’s active roster.

Despite posting a .985 OPS and 152 wRC+ for Triple-A Norfolk this past season, Kjerstad only received 114 plate appearances in the majors. Many thought Santander’s departure would make way for Kjerstad to play, but the O’Neill signing makes that outlook murkier.

In his 39-game stint in the big leagues, Kjerstad hit for a 116 wRC+ with inconsistent playing time. His successful minor league track record leads many to believe he could be a breakout candidate.

To break out, he’ll need to receive playing time. That could come in a corner outfield spot, or at designated hitter. Kjerstad is likely to need an injury to his competitors to play but might force his way into the mix by hitting the ground running. If this proves to be the case, Mullins may assume a more inconsistent role.

Santander’s Impact in Baltimore

Throughout this piece, I have laid out objective facts about Anthony Santander, his departure, and the competition to replace him. What I haven’t told you yet is that as a devout Oriole fan who watched “Tony Taters” go about his business for the better part of eight years, I am disappointed to see him go.

Santander was the only member of the 2024 Orioles who bridged the team’s last two eras of success. He endured the dark days of losing the most games in baseball in the 2018 and 2021 seasons. But, he made his mark by playing his best when the team started competing again.

As a player, Santander was clutch. Some of his most memorable moments were his walk-off home run against the New York Yankees in 2023 and his go-ahead grand slam against the Houston Astros this past season. The most impressive parts about those moments were that the pitch from the former was at his shin, while the latter was at his shoulders.

A severely underestimated aspect of losing Santander is losing his impact in the clubhouse. For a winning team to lose its longest-tenured player, new voices will need to rise up.

That’s not to say that young stars Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson aren’t ready to assume leadership roles. However, a successful, essentially homegrown (at the major league level), veteran they grew up with has left the organization.

Santander’s upbeat attitude and propensity for home run hitting will be sorely missed by the Orioles faithful. Especially considering, at the end of the day, one of our favorite players to watch signed with a division rival on a very affordable deal.

The Verdict

Now, to decide if the Orioles would have been better off waiting for Santander. I understand the argument from both sides.

The Homer’s Outlook: Santander ended up being affordable and is a favorite of the players, coaches, and fans. Why not give him a deal to retire an Oriole? It would still pay him far less than Chris Davis got in 2016.

The Executive’s Outlook: Santander declined the $21.05 million qualifying offer after hitting 44 home runs. Surely, the front office thought he’d get a contract with an AAV of $20+ million.

It was time to brainstorm who could best replace Santander, and O’Neill looked like a comparable player who would sign for a shorter commitment and a more affordable AAV.

If the front office had waited around, offered Santander, say, three years and $70 million, and he still chose the Blue Jays’ offer, O’Neill might have already been gone. By playing it safe, they still allocated resources appropriately and found a comparable replacement.

In my opinion, both of these arguments hold merit but are also flawed.

To the homer: The front office doesn’t operate by giving players blank checks. They assess a player’s value, and they thought O’Neill on a short-term deal would be a good bridge from Santander. He can even opt out after the first year, which would allow Kjerstad to step into a clear full-time role down the road.

To the executive: Do you think O’Neill is as good as Santander? The guy is rarely healthy and frankly, was not as good in 2024. Also, did the front office completely shut off communications with Santander once he declined the qualifying offer?

By signing O’Neill as quickly as they did, it leads me to believe the front office had little interest in retaining Santander to begin with, which is odd.

In my opinion, the executive’s outlook is the better argument, especially given that if (when) O’Neill gets injured, Kjerstad will be waiting in the wings to play. This team has capable replacements.

If Elias’ crew didn’t believe Santander would age well enough to be worth pursuing, they might as well have acted quickly to add the right-handed hitting depth the team needed.

People I know will read this and ask me: How can you say that? Santander is one of your favorite players! To which I’ll respond, you are correct. However, Kjerstad is ready to go, and O’Neill will provide quality at-bats as well. They seem to be capable replacements.

If the front office severely downgraded at Santander’s position, I would be outraged.

The fact that I am not only not outraged but defending the decision of the Orioles’ front office, means that I believe the team would not necessarily have been better off waiting for Anthony Santander.