Luis Robert Jr. Can Bounce Back — If He Stays Healthy

When discussing the Chicago White Sox‘s last three seasons, it’s hard to find too many bright spots.

After winning the AL Central in 2021, the team was surrounded with hype and declarations of a contention era, but the White Sox ended up finishing the 2022 season with a mediocre 81-81 record, failing to even advance to the postseason.

The team’s 61-101 record in 2023 made the fall from grace official, and in 2024, the White Sox lost more games than any other team in modern MLB history (41-121).

But even with the franchise unceremoniously dumping themselves into a rebuild around him, center fielder Luis Robert Jr. has managed to stand out as a star. In 2022, he slashed .284/.319/.426 with 12 home runs and 56 RBI in 401 plate appearances, and in 2023, he won a Silver Slugger Award after posting a .264/.315/.542 line with a team-leading 38 home runs and 80 RBI.

Coming off an All-Star season, Robert’s stats dipped last year, and while hardly surprising — the White Sox’s historically brutal run was sure to affect his performance at some point — the 27-year-old is now going into 2025 with hopes of bouncing back.

In 425 plate appearances last season, Robert hit .224/.278/.379 with 14 home runs and 35 RBI. On defense, he recorded just 1 Out Above Average (OAA) and a Fielding Run Value (FRV) of 0. There’s no question that these were uncharacteristically bad numbers for the center fielder, and perhaps it was just an off year and his stats will improve in 2025 without too much intervention.

It may also help that a change of scenery could be coming, with trade rumors having swirled about Robert since last winter.

Still, the slugger’s shaky stats in 2024 aren’t the biggest concern. In fact, Robert’s ability to bounce back this season is almost solely reliant on him staying healthy enough to be in the lineup.

Endless Injury Woes

Making his MLB debut in 2020, Robert won a Gold Glove Award for his work in center field and finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting, but just a year later, his injury woes began.

In 2021, Robert appeared in only 68 games after being sidelined for over three months with a complete tear of his right hip flexor, and in 2022, he was limited to just 98 games due to a groin injury, COVID-19, blurred vision, and a sprained wrist.

He fared better in 2023, though still spent short stints on the IL with a variety of ailments — including a hamstring strain, hip injury, sprained right pinky finger, and mild MCL tear — and even missed the All-Star Game due to a calf injury.

From 2021 to 2023, Robert missed 36% of games due to injury, and unfortunately, things didn’t improve last year. The center fielder sat out of 62 games in 2024 after suffering a Grade 2 right hip flexor strain just one month after Opening Day, meaning that after five seasons in the majors, the 2023 season is still the only one in which Robert has stayed healthy enough to play in over 100 games.

Can Robert Bounce Back in 2025?

Now entering the final guaranteed season of his six-year, $50 million contract — he has $20 million club options available for each of 2026 and 2027 — Robert desperately needs to bounce back this year. Yet, if the trade market is anything to go off, not everyone is convinced he can do it.

The White Sox have had trouble moving him this winter, with teams justifiably hesitant to meet the exorbitant asking price, especially considering his extensive injury history.

“The guy is certainly intriguing,” one GM told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale at the start of the offseason, “but they’ve got a really high price tag on him. You’ve got to hope he finally stays healthy and can be the player everyone envisioned all along. But the White Sox are acting like he’s some big star center fielder and are asking for your top prospects.”

In addition to the prohibitive asking price, another barrier to the White Sox pulling off a trade comes from the major projection systems, all of which stop short of forecasting anything too incredible for Robert in 2025.

Steamer expects Robert will produce a mediocre .244/.296/.434 line this year, though it also projects him to record a respectable 29 home runs and 83 RBI in 150 games, which would be the most appearances he’s ever managed in a season.

ZiPS is slightly more optimistic about his slashline — .248/.303/.437 — but forecasts only 20 homers and 65 RBI in 117 games. While both are a step up from the numbers he posted in 2024, they’re still a long way from his 2021-23 era stats, and ZiPS is seemingly preparing for yet another season of injury woes.

On January 30, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that both the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants had been interested in trading for Robert this winter, but despite extensive discussions and attempts to negotiate the price down to a more reasonable level, nothing eventuated.

As a result, “the White Sox now appear likely to carry Robert into spring training,” according to Rosenthal, but just as they did last offseason with starter Dylan Cease, the team will presumably keep trying to move him before Opening Day.

If Robert is able to bounce back in 2025, his contract’s club options for 2026 and 2027 mean he’ll be a multi-year star for whichever team he plays for, be that the White Sox or a trade partner.

Despite what the projection systems forecast, the 27-year-old was recently ranked ninth on Just Baseball’s list of the top center fielders in baseball, and many experts seemingly agree that his most recent stats aren’t indicative of his overall capability as a player. Now it’s just up to him to prove them right.

Still, Robert’s ability to have a comeback season almost entirely depends on whether or not he can stay healthy.

After spending close to his entire professional career stuck in the revolving door of the IL, his talent and potential are shrouded in uncertainty, but a return of the impressive stats that won him a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger certainly isn’t out of the question. He just has to stay in the lineup.