Another successful day on Friday!

We took Jack Leiter under 14.5 Pitching Outs (+165), and that was a rollercoaster. He was pacing as if it would be a coin flip whether he finished the fifth inning. Bruce Bochy left him to face Cal Raleigh, where I projected he would have been pulled. Raleigh hit a grand slam, and they still kept him in. Another hit by Randy Arozarena was the end, and he was pulled at 13 outs.

We did lose on the Angels ML (+160). They had a lead early, but the Tigers tied it in the seventh. Then Kenley Jansen had his worst day in a long time, and the Tigers blew them out in the ninth. Still, we walked away with a 0.9 Unit profit.

Today, I’m back with another huge underdog that’s completely mispriced.

2025 Record: 29-19 (+11.05 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox @ 2:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Astros: Lance McCullers Jr (2025 Debut)

White Sox: Bryse Wilson (5.00 ERA, 1.78 WHIP in 18 Innings)

The Astros are priced like the Dodgers today. That’s the only way to describe a -210 road favorite with a pitcher making his first start in Major League Baseball since the 2022 World Series.

The White Sox won the series’ first game, then looked good against Hunter Brown. They are playing fine baseball and have no business being +180 today. That line implies they have a 35% chance of winning this game, but my model thinks it’s closer to 45%, making the true line +122. They shouldn’t be the favorites, but this line is mega-inflated.

Lance McCullers Jr. hasn’t pitched in a big league game in over two years. I genuinely admire his perseverance. It’s an enormous mental battle to continue fighting your way back. There will be early nerves, and how he’ll perform is up in the air.

He’s been solid in his rehab starts. He started slow, but strung together a four-inning shutout in Triple-A, then a five-inning shutout in AA. Overall, he threw 12.2 innings over four starts, allowing four earned runs, striking out 16, and walking six batters. Put it all together, and his FIP was at 3.54.

How will he react on the road in his return? It’s impossible to know, but the White Sox can win this game if he runs into trouble.

It’s not even about fading McCullers, it’s about the Astros. Houston is a good team, not a great team. They rank 11th in run differential this season, and the offense does not scare me. Yordan Alvarez is also day-to-day, but I projected him to play today, and I still can’t get anywhere near this number.

The Astros are in their worst split against righties, a below-average offense this year against that handedness. Against righties, Houston ranks 22nd in wRC+ at 95 with the 23rd-ranked OPS at .673. On the road, those numbers are even worse. Their OPS drops to .643, with their wRC+ also falling to 83. Hunter Brown can be favored at -200 or more, but not McCullers, backed by this offense.

Jake Meyers recorded 13 total bases yesterday and drove in seven of the Astros’ eight runs. If he or another hitter replicates that performance, good on them; I’ll tip my cap. This offense doesn’t scare me at all.

The White Sox offense is not good, but they have been swinging it fine lately. Over the last two weeks, the White Sox have a 106 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, the 13th-best mark in baseball. At home this year against righties, they have an 86 wRC+ with a .642 OPS. Not great numbers, but they are on par with the Astros’ numbers on the road against righties.

Miguel Vargas has recorded a hit in ten of his last 12 games, and Chase Meidroth at the top of the lineup makes it much more watchable.

The White Sox pitching plan isn’t great. Bryse Wilson will likely go 2-3 innings, followed by a relatively rested bullpen. The best of the bunch so far, Steven Wilson and Mike Vasil, are both rested. Jordan Leasure and Cam Booser are also available, as is Brandon Esiert. I feel fine about that, especially since I’m not scared of this Astros offense.

The White Sox are a bad team, but they are at home, and we aren’t sweating these road White Sox (3-13 record). We are fading the Astros on the road, who are just 6-8. They have barely changed the line from Game 1 with Framber Valdez to Game 2 with Hunter Brown.

It boils down to this. I can’t make a 6-8 team on the road with a .643 OPS into a -210 favorite with a pitcher who hasn’t thrown in a big league game since 2022. I see a considerable edge in this one at +180, and I would take it down to +152, as I make the White Sox +122 in this game.

If you’re interested in getting my plays as soon as I bet them and have the opportunity to discuss each play with the group directly, join our Discord!

If you want to build your model on Rithmm or use their AI back-tested model, use code JUSTBASEBALL25 for 25% off your first month, which includes a seven-day free trial.