Is Luis Robert Worth the Risk for the Cincinnati Reds?

Any team that trades for Luis Robert is taking a risk. However, he comes with a unique contract situation, ceiling, and fit that makes the Reds a match.

Chicago White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. puts on his glove before a game against the St. Louis Cardinals on July 8, 2023, at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago.
Chicago White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. puts on his glove before a game against the St. Louis Cardinals on July 8, 2023, at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Few players come with as much intrigue and uncertainty as Chicago White Sox outfield Luis Robert. An exceptional athlete with a blend of power and speed that can change the trajectory of a team. However, his talent has fallen in the shadows due to an inability to stay healthy.

Robert has played more than 100 games only once in his career, 2023. During that season he slashed .264/.315/.542, 38 home runs, and 4.9 fWAR showing the type of player he can be. The rest of his career has been surrounded by what ifs to the extent that is almost mythical.

No question about it, any team that trades for Luis Robert is taking a risk. Giving up assets for a player who is not on the field often enough will keep certain teams away. However, Robert comes with a unique contract situation, ceiling, and fit that makes the Cincinnati Reds a match.

On a recent episode of the Just Baseball Show, Peter Appel suggested the Reds trade third baseman Noelvi Marte, starting pitcher Connor Phillips, and an additional prospect for Luis Robert. I want to break down the proposal, fit, contract, and why the trade makes sense for the Reds.

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Luis Robert’s Fit in Cincinnati

In 2023 the Reds were viewed as one of the up and coming teams. A litany of young, highly ranked, prospects and a superstar in the making at shortstop. After showing glimpses of what this team could be, 2024 was a step back. The talented young core is still intact, and now entering a healthy 2025, it is time to make a splash.

Cincinnati’s infield has plenty of options and upside to be somewhat confident in a much better season. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Gavin Lux, and Jeimer Candelario is enough to believe in. I feel confident some combination of those players will be enough to be competitive in 2025.

Their outfield leaves something to be desired. Too many players with a similar ceiling and limitations. TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, and Spencer Steer are solid players but a difference maker is needed, especially with very little coming through the pipeline.

Adding a righty bat is a must. Rumors have swirled about moving McLain to the outfield, which I think is a bad idea. His defense at second is a strength and moving him to outfield could open more opportunities for injury. Lux’s use as a super utility player gives the Reds a piece that they can move around and expect at least league average production.

Adding Robert to this lineup would allow give the Reds more power, which the desperately need, while also pushing their depth to a better place. One of the current outfielders either moves to the bench, or is used to upgrade the team elsewhere. You’d have less reliance on Will Benson or the other “AAAA” options which become organizational depth.

The Proposed Trade

Should the White Sox move Robert now or hope for a rebound making him a top trade deadline piece? You could debate that until you are blue in the face. If I’m the White Sox, I move him now before teams fill outfield needs elsewhere. Another down year or injury and the return could look drastically different.

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The trade Peter proposed is one Reds fans would like more than White Sox fans. Noelvi Marte, once a top prospect and still only 23, struggled after his PED suspension and looked overmatched at times. His batted ball data dropped significantly from a 91.3 mph average exit velocity to 87 mph and all else followed suit. I believe there’s a much better player than what he should, but do the White Sox? Or are they happy with seeing what Bryan Ramos and Miguel Vargas could bring.

Connor Phillips, respectfully, was a mess in 2024. His control was nonexistent which resulted in less strikeouts and an 8.01 ERA across 19 Triple-A starts. Phillips, 23, has always had control issues making it hard for be to believe he will eventually iron it out enough to be a starter. A path to a good relief pitcher is there.

Chicago has built up a stable of young arms and could prioritize a bat instead. The third piece in this proposed trade would have to be a significant prospect, likely in the systems top 10. Here is where the bat could come into play. Some fans may balk at that idea, but I would be willing to pull the trigger on a deal involving one of the top 10 options. I’d also be comfortable with nay bat outside of the systems top 10.

Luis Robert’s Contract

Robert’s contract is a big reason why I think the fit and risk are worth it for the Reds. In 2025, Robert is due $15 million with $20 million club options for 2026 and 2027, each with a $2 million buyout. The money is low for a healthy Robert and lines up well with other Reds contracts.

During the duration of Roberts contract the majority of Cincinnati’s key pieces will still be either in pre-arbitration or arbitration. An important factor as you consider the Reds historical payroll trends and the limited ceiling of money players can make in arbitration. Robert’s deal, if played through 2027, should not hamper the Reds from keeping any of their core young players due to a contract situation.

Of course, we have to consider the worst case scenario. Let’s say Robert’s down 2024 becomes the standard, or injuries continue to limit his production. The Reds can spend $2 million to get out of his deal. A lever you hope you never have to pull, but one that makes his deal more attractive.

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You could land a superstar but if it does not work out you have an option to part with minimal complications. A scenario that is even more important for a small market team such as the Reds.

Final Thoughts

Cincinnati has made impact trades in the past. Sure, not as often as we might hope, but it has happened. During a time where De La Cruz is as cheap as he’ll ever be, surrounded by pre-arbitration talent, the Reds need to capitalize.

Not often does a talent of Robert’s caliber become available with a deal that can actually work out for a small markets financials. Calculated risk are a large part of team building, and Robert’s risk is unique enough that the Reds should be very interested.

I don’t think Cincinnati can, or should, be overly aggressive every single year. However, this has the makings of a year that they need to dial up the aggressiveness. If this window of talent and money is not the time to roll the dice on a high ceiling player, then when is?