When Do the Dodgers Give Up On Michael Conforto?

When the Los Angeles Dodgers signed veteran outfielder Michael Conforto to a one-year, $17 million deal this past offseason, some fans didn’t flinch.

He wasn’t the headliner in an offseason that included the blockbuster signings of Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki, the contract extension of Tommy Edman, and the re-signing of Teoscar Hernández, but to many, Conforto was exactly the kind of savvy addition the Dodgers have built a reputation on.

A former All-Star with a track record of success, Conforto felt like another potential “fix” in a system that’s recently revived careers for guys like Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, and Enrique Hernández, and maximized the potential of guys like Edman and Teoscar Hernández.

But now, as we sit in mid-May, it’s fair to ask: when do the Dodgers cut bait?

Stats and rankings taken prior to play on May 13.

Early Promise, Swift Decline

To be fair, Conforto didn’t come out of the gate ice cold. Through his first eight games, he collected eight hits, including two homers and five RBIs, boasting an OPS over 1.000. He looked like a quality depth piece with some pop.

But since April 6, the wheels have fallen off in dramatic fashion. Conforto has gone just 10-for-92 (.109), striking out 34 times and driving in a single run over that stretch.

Before collecting three hits in his last six at-bats to close the recent series in Arizona, he was a dismal 7-for-86. Even with that small hot streak, he enters the Dodgers’ nine-game homestand on May 13 slashing .153/.291/.246 with a .537 OPS and a -0.6 WAR.

That’s the lowest WAR among Dodgers position players this year, and yet Conforto is second on the team in games played (38) and sixth in at-bats (118).

The Roster Math Isn’t on His Side

Conforto’s extended leash may owe more to injuries and lack of alternatives than anything else.

Edman and Teoscar Hernández are both currently on the IL, leaving the outfield depth chart thin. James Outman hasn’t provided much reason to steal reps either — he’s 1-for-15 since his return, with 10 strikeouts and a lone garbage-time homer.

On the flip side, rookie Hyeseong Kim has been a fun breath of fresh air. In just nine games, he’s batting .318 and showing off elite speed and versatility. If Kim can play solid defense at multiple positions, steal bases, and produce at the plate with his push/slap-style approach, he could easily force his way into a regular role, regardless of who else is healthy.

And looming in the background is Dalton Rushing, the Dodgers’ No. 3 prospect. With an OPS north of .900 at Triple-A, the catcher-outfielder hybrid is on the verge of demanding big-league playing time. If the Dodgers decide to lean into youthful upside, Conforto may be the odd man out.

The Resume: A Shadow of the Past

It’s not like Conforto was plucked out of nowhere. A first-round pick out of Oregon State in 2014, he was a mainstay for the Mets between 2015 and 2021. He posted a 2.2 WAR in just 56 games as a rookie and was an All-Star in 2017, clubbing 27 home runs with a .939 OPS in 109 games.

Between 2018 and 2019, he combined for a 6.4 WAR, 61 homers, and an .825 OPS. In the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Conforto raked with a .322 average, .927 OPS, and nine home runs with a 2.1 WAR.

But injuries have derailed him, and he missed the entire 2022 campaign. Since then, the results have been middling. Across 2023 and 2024 with the Giants, he was competent, managing 35 homers and a 2.1 WAR in 255 games.

Now in 2025, the outlook is more troubling. And it’s not just the counting stats that raise concern.

Underlying Metrics Paint a Bleak Picture

If Conforto were simply hitting into bad luck, the Dodgers might be inclined to wait it out. But the advanced metrics suggest something more systemic.

According to Baseball Savant, Conforto ranks:

• 8th percentile in batting run value
  
• 5th percentile in baserunning run value
  
• 22nd percentile in fielding run value
  
• 10th percentile in expected batting average (.214)
  
• 26th percentile in whiff rate (28.5%)
  
• 13th percentile in strikeout rate (29.1%)
  
• 13th percentile in defensive range
  
• 28th percentile in sprint speed
  

Even the positives come with caveats. He’s still league-average in exit velocity and slightly above in hard-hit rate. His bat speed is solid (74th percentile), he chases pitches at a low rate (73rd percentile), and he walks a lot (89th percentile). But he ranks in the sixth percentile in “squared-up” baseballs, meaning even his hard contact often isn’t productive.

He’s seeing pitches, but he’s not doing damage, and he’s not helping much with the glove or on the bases. For a team with title aspirations and a notoriously crowded roster, that’s a hard profile to justify.

ZiPS Wasn’t High on Him, But Not This Low

Coming into the year, even projection systems like ZiPS didn’t have high expectations. As noted in our preview, ZiPS projected Conforto to slash .232/.310/.400 with 18 home runs and a 1.0 WAR.

That line would be a significant upgrade from what he’s done so far. In fact, that slash would arguably make him a serviceable No. 7 hitter on a deep Dodgers team. Instead, he’s been one of the least effective everyday players in baseball.

The Clock Ticking…Is Time Running Out?

The Dodgers hold MLB’s best record at 27-14, even amid a wave of pitching injuries. But the outfield configuration remains unsettled. Once Edman and Hernández return, the Dodgers will need to reassess who deserves regular reps.

This Dodgers team is good enough to carry a struggling veteran through a cold month. But they’re not sentimental, and they’ve built a machine that thrives on internal competition.

Conforto has the track record and now maybe a little momentum after the Arizona series. But if he can’t recapture even a sliver of his old form, his job could be in jeopardy by late June.

The Dodgers won’t hesitate to reallocate his at-bats to a hot hand or promising young bat; they have too many options and too many expectations to keep running him out there.