What Happened to the 2024 Minnesota Twins?

The Twins missed the playoffs after a historic collapse, one year after snapping a 19-year long playoff losing streak.

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - SEPTEMBER 29: Kyle Farmer #12 of the Minnesota Twins looks on in the dugout in the eighth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Target Field on September 29, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Minnesota Twins 6-2.(Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - SEPTEMBER 29: Kyle Farmer #12 of the Minnesota Twins looks on in the dugout in the eighth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Target Field on September 29, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Minnesota Twins 6-2.(Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)

Thursday was the conclusion of the Wild Card round of the playoffs. In said round, we saw the Detroit Tigers continue a magical run by knocking off the Houston Astros on the road to advance. The Kansas City Royals also won their series on the road in Baltimore against the Orioles.

Three of the four remaining AL playoff teams are from the AL Central, but none of them are the Minnesota Twins.

Let’s go back in time for a second. If you were to go back to March and tell someone that there would be three teams from the AL Central in the divisional round of the playoffs, they wouldn’t believe you. Furthermore, if they were to tell you that one of the three teams would not be the Minnesota Twins they would probably laugh in your face.

Entering the season, FanGraphs gave the Twins a 66% chance of making the playoffs as well as a 55.2% chance of winning the division (both highest in the AL Central). We now sit here in October and the Twins find themselves at home after falling short of a Wild Card spot. What happened?

Ad – content continues below

It all Started in the Offseason

Twins fans, including myself are upset and rightfully so. Upset fans often find themselves pointing fingers, trying to find someone to blame for a situation that should have never happened. I can assure you that there is plenty to go around, but it all starts at the top.

This offseason, Twins chairman Joe Pohlad stated that they would be working under payroll constraints. This handcuffed the front office and resulted in the Twins 2023 payroll of $156.1M being cut down to $131M for 2024.

The 2023 Twins were the first to win a playoff game since 2004. Instead of building upon the success of the previous season, the ownership decided it would be best to cut payroll. While still fielding a talented team, anyone could see the clear deficiencies.

The Twins three best position players, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis are as injury prone as anyone in the league. While Correa had quelled some concerns recently but Buxton and Lewis had not. Lewis goes down in game one and thanks to not spending in the off-season the contingency plan is Austin Martin.

On the other hand, the contingency plan for Buxton in center was Manuel Margot who has a career wRC+ of 79 against right-handed pitching.

The rotation on the other hand was remarkably thin. It was clear that one injury would be a major blow to the rotation. If it weren’t for David Festa and Zebby Matthews making major strides in the minors it could have been even worse than it was.

Ad – content continues below

Furthermore, this team had to lean heavy on Simeon Woods-Richardson. He was sensational, but just didn’t have the juice down the stretch after surpassing his previous high in innings by 30.

Doubling Down at the Deadline

After an offseason of cutting payroll the Twins ownership would double down at the deadline. Joe Pohlad stated that payroll was still a concern and they would operate with constraints at the trade deadline.

On July 30, the day of the deadline, the Twins had improved upon their playoff odds. They jumped to 78.6% compared to their 66% at the beginning of the season. Despite not improving the roster during free agency, the Twins had the opportunity to solidify the roster at the deadline but did nothing.

This is where the sharing the blame that I mentioned earlier comes into play. The front office should not take a ton of blame for the lack of free agent signings. Given the constraints they likely could not have done much better. The front office should however take a little heat for the lack of action at the deadline.

To not make a single move is just unacceptable. The bullpen clearly needed help and plenty of inexpensive relievers were moved. Gregory Soto was on a $5M deal this season and he was traded to the Orioles. Huascar Brazoban was traded to the Mets making $753,000.

The point remains that there were moves that could have been made. If you have to sweeten a deal a little to get some salary covered then so be it. If the front office truly killed any deal that came across the desk then shame on them. However, the front office should have been able to make some kind of move to solidify this roster.

Ad – content continues below

Lack of Buy-In Down the Stretch

We have hit on the ownership group and the front office. They however had little impact on the actual collapse of the team down the stretch. Despite the lack of adding to the roster both before the season and at the trade deadline, this team was good enough to make the playoffs.

On Aug. 17, the Twins found themselves at 70-53 (.569) with the fourth best record in the AL. They were in prime position to coast into the post season, with a 92.4% chance to make the playoffs.

Since 2012 when MLB expanded to two wild-card teams only the 2019 Indians (92-69, 3 GB), 2018 Mariners (89-73, 8 GB), and 2013 Rangers (91-72, 1 GB) have missed the playoffs after having a .569 win percentage or better on Aug. 17. Looking at these records, you can see just how monumental the Twins collapse was.

Two of these other such teams still won 90 games, and the Mariners still won 89 in a year the final wild card team won 97. The Twins finished with 82 wins but they needed 86 to qualify for the playoffs. To make matters worst, their playoff odds were at their highest on September 2nd, peaking at 95.8%.

Had the Twins just gone 19-20 after Aug. 17, they would have won 89 games and finished comfortably in a playoff spot. Instead they finished 12-27, just a half game better than the White Sox over the same stretch. This was the result of a sheer lack of buy-in.

Unacceptable Implosion

Both the players and manager Rocco Baldelli are to blame for this. From Aug. 17, the offense that had been top-five in baseball fell to 23rd in runs scored and 24th in wRC+.

Ad – content continues below

The starting rotation began to wear down falling to 24th in ERA and 18th in FIP. Compared to 17th and 9th prior to August 17th.

Finally, a bullpen that was 12th in ERA and 4th in FIP fell all the way to 27th in ERA and 11th in FIP down the stretch.

The fall-off in pitching is understandable. As stated earlier, this was a very thin rotation and a top heavy bullpen. The front office not adding support had a direct impact on that. The bats going cold however is absolutely unacceptable.

To put it in perspective, Correa returned on Sept. 14 with 14 games left to play. He played in 11 of those games posting a 172 wRC+ and the Twins went 4-10 over that stretch.

From Aug. 17 on, Lewis hit just .184 with a 33 wRC+. Willi Castro, who was an All-Star, hit just .215 with a 79 wRC+. Not to mention numerous others who struggled. The bats went ice cold.

This falls directly on the leadership in the club house. There seemed to be no urgency, no fight and it was incredibly hard to watch. Fans should be disappointed in Baldelli for not finding ways to win games. Look at what AJ Hinch did in Detroit. With all due respect to the Tigers, Hinch took a less talented roster and found ways to win games. He motivated that team and the players bought in and willed themselves into the playoffs.

Ad – content continues below

At the end of the day this team fell asleep at the wheel. Despite the ownership refusing to invest, this team was good enough to win as constructed.

Who Takes the Heat?

Yes, there is a lot of blame to go around. Pohlad, the front office, Baldelli, and the players all deserve some blame when it comes to the disaster that was the 2024 season.

Thus far, Pohlad has taken the most heat and rightfully so. It all started with him refusing to invest in a team that had shown promise. As a fan it is incredibly disheartening to know that the billionaires that own your team are unwilling to even keep the payroll the same.

Next, Baldelli and the players should share the second most blame for what happened this season. When you have the talent to win but come up short, the players and manager have to be held accountable. The fact that this team had put themselves in such a strong position for success, just to fall up short has to fall on the manager.

It would be one thing if the team was coming up short all season. Players underperforming, getting bit by the injury bug, etc. That all happens, but down the home stretch the Twins were in prime position for a playoff spot. To collapse like that has to come back on the leadership.

To Twins fans, I hear your frustrations and am right there with you. This season was unacceptable, but it does not sound like it could get better anytime soon. All indications point towards cutting payroll again next season.

Ad – content continues below

If there is a silver lining, a lot of the young players that we got to see in 2024 showed a lot of promise. On top of that, players like Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, and Walker Jenkins waiting in the wings will hopefully offer some excitement in 2025.