Twins Are Keeping the Door Cracked in AL Wild Card

The American League Central has been one of the more pleasant surprises in baseball this year. As of right now, four of the five teams are above .500 and three of them would be in the playoffs if the regular season ended right now.

Each of the Guardians, Royals and Twins have remained in the thick of things all year long, with Cleveland and Kansas City trading blows for the top spot in the division and the Twins comfortably hanging on to a Wild Card spot.

The Minnesota Twins are a team that needs to be put under the microscope a bit here. The club was 70-53 on Aug. 17 and is only 76-67 on Sept. 9. Hard times have fallen on these Twins, as they’re 4-6 in their last 10 games, 6-14 in their last 20 and are losers of three games in a row.

Of course, those three games came in the form of a sweep at the hands of the division rival Royals.

This skid comes at the absolute worst time for the Twins, as we’re already marching through the final month of regular season play. An extended cold streak right now could mean trouble for their postseason hopes, even though right now they still have control of a Wild Card spot.

Let’s look at the Twins’ cold streak and determine what this means for a few of the clubs on the outside looking in in the Wild Card race.

What’s Behind the Twins Cold Streak?

All year long, the Twins’ offense has been one of the most dangerous and consistent units in the American League. Even though the team as a whole has fallen on some tough times, their offense remains fourth in the AL in wRC+ (109), ISO (.172), OBP (.318), SLG (.421) and wOBA (.321).

Silent Offense

A huge part of their current problem is the fact that the offense has gone radio silent. Since Aug. 17, the start of their skid, the Twins are hitting just .234 with a wRC+ of 87. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton haven’t appeared in a single game and Royce Lewis is less productive than he was when he was on the injured list.

Lewis, 25, is easily the most exciting young star on the Twins. His issue for years now has been staying healthy. Despite the fact that he’s still dealt with injuries this year, he’s also already played in a career-high 64 games. 20 of those have come since Aug. 17, but he’s struck out nearly 31% of the time, hit .186 and posted a wRC+ of -26. That’s not going to cut it.

Carlos Santana and Willi Castro are two more contributors the Twins have leaned on this year that are struggling at the dish. Subtracting these two, Lewis, Buxton and Correa from Minnesota’s lineup has made the entire team a lot less intimidating and difficult to beat.

An Ailing Pitching Staff

August was a rough month for the Twins’ pitching staff, especially the rotation. Outside of Pablo Lopez, who pitched like a legitimate Cy Young contender (0.99 ERA in four starts, 27.1 innings), only Ronny Henriquez threw more than 10 innings and had an ERA under 4.12.

Bailey Ober finished the month with a 5.57 ERA across four starts and 21 innings.

Simeon Woods Richardson was at 5.09 in four starts and 17.2 innings.

Zebby Matthews, one of the club’s top pitching prospects, managed a ghastly 8.47 ERA across four starts and 17 innings.

Obviously, that’s not going to work. Things can’t continue going this way for the Twins if there’s going to be any hope for them in this year’s playoffs. If anything, they may still make it, but be near locks to be eliminated in the first round.

Twins Giving Chances to Playoff Hopefuls

To keep things fair, we’re going to use the same date, Aug. 17, when talking about the three clubs the Twins are inadvertently helping claw their way back into the Wild Card race.

Detroit Tigers

Record: 73-71

Deficit: 3.5 GB

While the Twins’ offense struggled, the Tigers’ offense took off. All told, the club has posted a 105 wRC+ and every one of their qualifying hitters is over a 110 wRC+ going back to that mid-Aug. date.

Of the eight Tigers pitchers who have thrown at least 10 innings over the specified date range, only three of them have ERAs above 4.15. Tarik Skubal remains one of the most unhittable starting pitchers in all of baseball, as he struck out 10.22 batters per nine innings while sporting a 2.55 ERA and even more impressive 1.92 FIP.

Brant Hurter, Ty Madden, Tyler Holton and Beau Brieske all made at least one start (Holton usually as an opener) and posted ERAs of 2.84 or lower. Most of these names are rookies, so Detroit has been able to successfully rely on the young guys to carry them as of late.

The Tigers are 14-7 since Aug. 17 and have kept themselves in the race every bit as much as the Twins have. They’re riding a two-game win streak and are right on the outside looking in. If things continue on the trend they’ve been on, they should be even closer over the next week or so of games.

Seattle Mariners

Record: 73-71

Deficit: 3.5 GB

The Mariners are another club that is just on the outside of the Wild Card race, but this Twins slide is making things interesting. Seattle is 10-11 over our specified date range, but that hasn’t harmed their chances to sneak into the playoffs very much. A three-and-a-half game deficit can quickly evaporate.

We’ve been talking all year about how filthy the Mariners’ starting rotation is. A four-headed monster of Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Bryan Woo is borderline unfair, so now it’s a matter of getting their offense to step up.

Since Aug. 17, they’ve been doing just that. Mariners hitters managed a 114 wRC+, which is tied for the fourth-highest in all of baseball (second in the AL) over that stretch. They scored the most runs in the AL (104), stole the second-most bases (27) and had the highest OBP (.337) as well.

Deadline acquisitions Justin Turner and Randy Arozarena both hit well over our date range, as did superstar Julio Rodriguez. None of this trio had a wRC+ below 117 and the latter two recorded 12 or more runs scored and drove in no less than 10 of their own runs, too.

Closing Thoughts

The Twins are still to be viewed as the favorites to hold on to that final AL Wild Card spot. They need to get some of their top players healthy and performing at a level we all know they can get to first.

This does not change the fact that the door is being left wide open for any club on a hot streak to make their move. The Tigers and Mariners are the closest to doing so, but the Red Sox are only four games out and the Rays five games. Just one properly-timed hot streak, mixed with the right amount of losses from the Twins could change this playoff picture in a big way.