What Does Selling Look Like for the Minnesota Twins

These are troubling times in the land of 10,000 rakes. The Twins have dropped four of six games coming out of the break. Already five games back of a wild card spot, it looks like the smart thing for the Twins to do is sell at the trade deadline.

This season has, without a doubt, been disappointing to watch as a fan. Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis are playing some of the worst baseball of their careers. The pitching staff has been solid but received very little support from the offense. It is a lot of the same things that Twins fans have grown accustomed to these last three seasons.

The lack of investment that this front office and ownership group have provided in the offseason should be a huge indicator to the fan base. After cutting payroll in the off-season, it is hard to see this team being willing to add at the deadline.

This deadline should be seen as an opportunity for the Twins to retool and add pieces that can help them compete next season. This roster really is not that far away from being a contender. Selling some expiring pieces with plans of competing next year should be the plan. Here are some players that could be on the move at the deadline and what they could return.

Openly Shopping

There is a group of players that the Twins need to be openly shopping. These are all players on expiring contracts who have no future with the Twins and should be sold to the highest bidder for any return they can get.

Harrison Bader – OF

Season Stats: .249/.330/.438, 12 HR, 8 SB, 115 wRC+, 11 DRS, 6 OAA, 1.8 fWAR

Harrison Bader has been the Twins best off-season acquisition. Thus far he is on pace to post a career-high in wRC+, HRs, and RBIs.

This off-season, the Twins signed Bader to a one-year deal valued at $6.25M. The deal does have a mutual option attached to it, but as most of you know, those are rarely picked up. This makes Bader a perfect rental candidate.

There are some rumors swirling that teams are calling on Jarren Duran of the Boston Red Sox. Bader feels like he could be a consolation prize for one of those teams that misses out on Duran. They are fairly similar players outside of Duran being slightly younger with years of control.

While Twins fans were likely hoping Bader would have been a piece to help a postseason team, flipping him at this point is a no-brainer.

Best Fits: Houston Astros & Philadelphia Phillies

Bader seems like a perfect fit in Houston. They are a team that could use an outfielder. In 146 innings in center field this season, Bader has collected three DRS and two OAA, so he can still get after it out there. Houston also has a depleted farm system, and Bader is likely not going to be super expensive, making this a good match.

The Phillies outfield is in even worst shape than the Astros. They are getting very little production from anyone in that group and could use a solid bat like Bader.

What does this mean for the Twins? They should be looking for a high floor prospect in the upper minors that is close to MLB ready. It is unlikely that Bader alone will net a top 10 prospect in a good system. He should however be able to help the Twins acquire a player that can help next season.

Willi Castro – UTL

Season Stats: .258/.350/.435, 10 HR, 8 SB, 121 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR

Willi Castro is enjoying his third strong season in a row while in Minnesota. This is by far the best offensive season of his career, and he could end up posting a career-high in fWAR.

Castro is going to provide a team with unique value at the deadline. His ability to play everywhere on the diamond is incredibly valuable. This season, he has played every defensive position outside of catcher and first base.

There could potentially be a horde of teams calling the Twins about Castro because he can fill almost any defensive need, and you know he comes with solid offense. This could drive up his value even higher than it already will be.

Castro is a fan favorite, and it will be hard for fans to see him in another jersey. He has expressed that he is happy playing in Minnesota and would like to stay. Unfortunately, with the Twins performing the way that they are, it just makes sense to trade Castro who is on an expiring contract.

Best Fits: Every Contender

What should the Twins be looking for in a return? Castro should be a fairly expensive rental, all things considered.

The starting point on Castro should be at least a borderline/backend top 100 prospect. That plus another piece or two should be enough for the Twins to move him.

Where things get interesting is if the Twins could start a bidding war. If the deadline ends up being slower than anticipated the Twins could have a prized possession on their hands. For a more detailed look at Castro and his value, check out this piece written by Clay Snowden!

Danny Coulombe – RP

Season Stats: 27.2 IP, 0.65 ERA, 9.43 K/9, 2.28 BB/9, 0.94 WHIP, 1.75 FIP

While his use has been limited partly due to injury, Coulombe has been one of the best relievers in baseball. If you take out the one inning he threw as an opener, he has a 0.34 ERA. That mark is the best in baseball among relievers with at least 20 innings this season.

Potentially his most important stat is that he has stranded 95.8% of baserunners. When you get into a jam and need an out, he has been as good as anyone this year.

We all know how valuable relievers can be in the postseason. Every deadline, there is always a plethora of bullpen arms on the move. With Coulombe being 35 years old and on an expiring contract, he should be a lock to get moved.

Best Fits: Every Contender

While it is kind of a copout, Coulombe really does fit every contender. There is not a team that is going to make the playoffs that couldn’t use a left-handed reliever.

What type of return should be expected by Twins fans? A deal from last season comes to mind, is Gregory Soto to the Orioles. Now, Soto was younger and had an extra year of control but was not performing the way the Coulombe is this season.

Soto cost the Orioles a couple of pretty solid pitching prospects. Seth Johnson was the Orioles eighth ranked prospect at the time of the trade and Moises Chace was not ranked but is now in the top 10 of the Phillies system.

Coulombe should command a similar price for a contending team this season.

Other Expiring Deals

The Twins have a couple of other deals that are expiring at the end of the season. These are players that the Twins should absolutely try to move but it is hard to see a market materializing for them.

The first is Chris Paddack who had a great month of May where he posted a 2.40 ERA but he has been terrible at every other point of the season. At this point in the year with a 5.14 ERA, I do not think there is going to be anyone busting the door down for Chris Paddack.

Another player who should be moved if possible is Christian Vazquez. Among players with at least 160 plate appearances, only three players have a wRC+ worst than Vazquez’s mark of 43. He has been an okay defender this season compared to his usually solid defense. Another hard player to move but if a team is desperate for an option at catcher, he should be moved.

Justin Topa is a reliever that could have some value. He has a club option for next year at just $2M. He has a 4.08 ERA in just under 40 innings, but a 2.66 FIP could indicate some bad luck. Worst relievers have been moved in the past so Topa could be on the move.

Finally, Ty France who seems to have gotten a little worst every year since 2020 should be moved if possible. He is on a one year contract worth just a million dollars. His offensive production this season has been arguably the worst of his career and moving him will be tough but if anyone is willing to offer something he should be gone.

The Big Fish

Byron Buxton has publicly expressed that he will not accept a trade out of Minnesota. I highly doubt the Twins were considering moving him, but they were undoubtably going to get calls. With Buxton having nipped that in the bud, there are two other stars that the Twins could move.

Both Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran would bring in quite the haul for the Twins. Selling them is understandably unpopular amongst fans. However, for the right price both could be available.

Jhoan Duran – RP

Season Stats: 44.1 IP, 10.15 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 1.62 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 15 SV

For the last four seasons, Jhoan Duran has been one of the best relievers in baseball. He is currently putting together what could be the best season of his career. He is not a free agent until 2028 and so why would the Twins trade one of the best relievers in baseball with this much control?

For one, relievers are incredibly volatile. As good as Duran has been, he had a 3.64 ERA last season, which is a little low for a superstar closer. Long story short, it is unlikely that Duran ever has as much value as he has right now.

An arguably top-five reliever in baseball with two and a half years of control could turn into the crown jewel of the deadline.

If the Twins do move Duran, fans can take some solace in the fact that they have developed relievers quite well as of late. Duran, along with Griffin Jax and Louis Varland were all developed by the Twins. They have also been able to identify players such as Danny Coulombe and Brock Stewart.

Fans should have faith in the Twins ability to rebuild the bullpen if Duran is in fact moved.

Best Fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, & Chicago Cubs

Last season, Tanner Scott was moved for a top 50 prospect in Robby Snelling, two more of the Padres top five prospects, and another top 30 prospect. That should be the starting point for a Duran deal.

Scott had produced in Miami prior to the deal but did not have the track record of Duran and he was also a rental.

Bear with me for a second while I talk this through, but I could see a potentially big trade with Philadelphia. Both Duran and Bader would fill needs for them. They also have to be looking at this year as one of the final years with their current core.

Could the Twins move Duran and Bader to Philly for a package of Mick Able (PHI #8), Justin Crawford (PHI #5), Moises Chace (PHI #4), and Eduardo Tait (JBB #47)? If you are a Phillies fan, that may seem like a lot, but it is one top 50 prospect, a probable backend of the top 100 guy in Chace, and two more in the top 10 of the system.

Maybe it is too much, but if you are the Twins that is how you have to approach moving Duran.

Joe Ryan – SP

Season Stats: 116 IP, 10.21 K/9, 1.78 BB/9, 2.63 ERA, 3.13 FIP

This is one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball. The Twins should not move Joe Ryan. If the Twins do in fact go on to move Duran, I think a package for him should be enough to add pieces to help next year.

Trading Joe Ryan would feel like going all in on a rebuild. He still has two more years of control after this season. The Twins front office when approaching this deadline should be focused on retooling in order to compete next season.

Next season, Joe Ryan should be the Ace of this staff. Him and Pablo Lopez should headline one of the better rotations in baseball.

The only reason that trading Joe Ryan should be even remotely entertained is in the case that the trade package is just too good to believe.

Best Fits: Chicago Cubs & Boston Red Sox

Both of these teams will likely call and ask about Joe Ryan. However, it is hard to see either being willing to meet the tall asking price.

If Boston wants to make a move for Ryan without giving up Roman Anthony or Marcelo Mayer, its going to cost a pretty penny. The Twins should be looking for something like Carlos Narvaez, Wilyer Abreu, Jhostynxon Garcia, and Payton Tolle. Maybe that feels like an overpay if you are a Red Sox fan, but it should.

If you are the Cubs, again the package would have to be something huge. A package from them would have to look like Cade Horton, Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, and James Triantos. Again that probably feels like a lot but it should.

Joe Ryan should only be moved if there is a trade package that is simply too good to be true. Even if a team meets an astronomical asking price, it would really hurt to trade him.