What’s Behind the Blue Jays’ Unexpected Rise to First Place?

The Toronto Blue Jays have burst onto the scene in 2025 with much higher levels of success and performance than nearly anyone could have predicted. They currently sit atop the American League East division ahead of the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, and Boston Red Sox, who are all at least four games above .500 as of July 23.

The AL East is closer than one might have assumed it’d be prior to the season, but the Blue Jays are making sure the league knows to be wary of the team above the border. 2025 has been a year to remember for Toronto fans, and it seems like playoff baseball is certainly not out of the question for the Jays.

Notching 55 wins before this year’s All-Star break, the Jays set a franchise record for first-half success; and yes, even more than their World Series years in 1992 and 1993. The American League in 2025 as a whole is more up for grabs than it has been in recent seasons and the Blue Jays are taking this opportunity by the horns and asserting themselves as division leaders.

Stats and rankings taken prior to play on July 23.

The First-Place Blue Jays Are Taking the League by Storm

Toronto’s success in 2025 has caught nearly everyone by surprise, defying preseason predictions and putting the Blue Jays on the radar as one of the league’s best. In a season where it was widely predicted they’d be a bottom-dweller of the league and their division, the Jays have come out of absolutely nowhere to surprise everyone.

This success began before the regular season even began, as Toronto finished their spring training schedule with the Grapefruit League’s best record at 18-10. They were led by Bo Bichette’s dominant slash line that came alongside four home runs in spring training: .373/.411/.667.

10 Blue Jays with at least 30 at-bats in this 28-game slate finished with an OPS at or above .800. Their pitching staff may not have performed the best, finishing with the league’s sixth-best team WHIP (1.37) and near the middle of the league in virtually every other major pitching statistic.

The Jays have even defied our very own Just Baseball 2025 AL East predictions, which had Toronto (and very understandably so) finishing fifth in the division. Our Matt Carroll even noted this in his article: “A lot has to go right for the Jays in 2025 to get back on the horse, but it’s certainly not an impossibility.”

Oh boy, has a lot gone right for the Blue Jays this season.

Not only do they hold a 3.0 game lead atop the AL East, they only sit 0.5 games back of the Detroit Tigers for the best record in the American League. It’s safe to say they’ve surpassed the expectation set out for them before the 2025 season.

What’s Behind This Team’s Success?

While the Blue Jays have some key pieces from previous seasons who have been continuing to perform strongly for Toronto, a lot of the team’s success is coming from pieces that either haven’t reached similar levels of success in the past or are breaking out at the MLB level in big ways.

Whether this is coming from players who have held consistent roster spots with Toronto prior to 2025 or newcomers from within or outside of the organization, the Blue Jays are finding wins, runs, and plenty of entertainment value from the most unexpected places.

The success of the Blue Jays in 2025 has not come primarily from superstar free-agent acquisitions like Anthony Santander or insane individual performances from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but rather from depth role players that have played integral roles in Toronto’s winning. Even George Springer is defying Father Time to lead the Jays this year.

Here are three of the most important key performers for Toronto this season. While their entire roster has been running at full force this year, these players represent the out-of-the-blue success that Toronto has had.

INF Ernie Clement: 2.0 fWAR

Versatile infielder Ernie Clement has been one of the most consistent parts of the Blue Jays’ roster in 2025, and his 2.0 fWAR is fifth among position players on the team. He ranks third on the team in hits (93) and doubles (20), and his offense has been the most prominent part of his contributions this season.

Ernie isn’t a power hitter, but his incredible ability to make contact and put balls in play has been invaluable for Toronto, at times allowing him to be a strong leadoff hitter whenever the team needs it.

While he ranks within the lowest four percent of hitters in Barrel Rate (1.6%), hard-hit Percentage (25.3%), and bat speed (67.2 mph), he also sits among the league’s best in strikeout rate (9.6%) and whiff percentage (13.6%).

However, Clement has never really been known as a strong hitter prior to 2025, and his defense has always carried his value. Fortunately for the Blue Jays, that portion of his game has remained excellent for Clement this season.

His +10 OAA is in the 98th percentile of MLB this season, according to Baseball Savant. In addition, his 28.6 ft/s sprint speed sits Ernie in the 84th percentile, so he’s been a very well-rounded player for Toronto this season.

Without his contributions, the Jays are probably not where they are in the standings.

INF/OF Addison Barger: 2.2 fWAR

Addison Barger’s breakout in 2025 is making him known league-wide as a bat to be scared of.

Slashing .274/.325/.517 through his first 77 games and slugging 14 home runs and 22 doubles to drive in 44 runs, he’s been one of Toronto’s most important hitters and plays a variety of positions on the field.

Barger has played in 51 games at third base and 34 games in right field, with both of these positions benefiting from his incredible arm strength.

In 2025, he ranks only behind Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates in Average Arm Strength at a wild 97.6 mph. Even more impressive is the fact that he leads all infielders in arm strength in his games at third base (92.1 mph) and leads all right fielders this year as well (97.8 mph).

Barger sits well in the 100th percentile in these statistics, and it’s no secret to opposing baserunners that he’s got a cannon attached to his right shoulder.

Barger’s raw power is nearly unparalleled on this relatively young Blue Jays roster, and his 75.8 mph average bat speed is the 13th-best mark in MLB this year, also sitting behind fellow Blue Jay Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and his 76.6 mph average swing speed. He’s also tied for Toronto’s longest home run in 2025 with Guerrero Jr. at 448 ft.

LHP Eric Lauer: 1.0 fWAR

Eric Lauer has quietly been one of the most reliable arms in the league over the last few months, pitching to the tune of a 2.80 ERA over 61 innings of work with a WHIP of 0.97. His 1.0 fWAR is the fifth-best among Blue Jays pitchers, and he’s been able to offer plenty of bullpen relief when his spot in the rotation comes up.

Lauer has only allowed 3 or more runs twice in his 15 outings, and since June 1, he’s gone 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA and a 45:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 41.1 innings. He might not have the most electric stuff in the league, but his ability to confuse and overwhelm hitters with below-average velocity is incredibly valuable for Toronto.

His four-seam fastball comes in at an average of 91.8 mph in 2025. Despite using it over 46% of the time this season, it’s garnered a .183 opposing batting average and has a Run Value of +5. It’s one of three pitches Lauer throws consistently with a positive Run Value: Cutter (+4 RV), Slider (+3 RV).

Lauer’s rate stats have been amazing, as his per-nine statistics are as follows: 6.3 hits, 2.4 walks, 1.0 home runs, and 9.6 strikeouts.

Putting in one solid effort after another, Lauer’s been a consistent pillar in Toronto’s rotation in spite of their many injured starters. Especially following Max Scherzer’s lengthy stint on the injured list, Lauer’s dependability this season has been incredible valuable and important to the Jays’ continued success.

These are certainly not the only players on Toronto’s roster that have been performing incredibly well this season, but Clement, Barger, and Lauer are three players who sum up the Blue Jays’ resurgent 2025 campaign better than anyone else.

Not only are the Jays defying preseason predictions, but they’re blowing past any doubts that have been put on them. In an American League that appears to be more up-for-grabs than in recent years, Toronto has picked the perfect time to get hot, and all the right players have stepped up to do so.

The entire league needs to be on the lookout for the Blue Jays in the second half of the 2025 season, because this team is dangerous.