MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Predictions for Sunday Night Baseball, September 1, 2024
Why did they have to tease us like that? We came away with a push on the over between the Brewers and the Reds. Both teams combined to go 2-25 with runners in scoring position, and it still pushed. That game should have easily been in the double digits, but a push is better than a loss so I’ll take it.
The totals have been good to us lately, but there is a money line that I can’t pass up. Totals are priced right across the board, so we’ll narrow in on Sunday Night Baseball for a winner.
If anyone is interested in my NFL Futures (+35.25 Units in 2023), click here.
2024 Record: 110-112 (-5.76 U)
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:00 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Spencer Schwellenbach (3.72 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (3.30 ERA)
The Braves hold a 7-5 lead on the season series even after dropping two of three from the Phillies in this series. While the Phillies are up in the series, the Braves have the 11-10 lead in terms of runs scored. The Braves have the better offensive output this month and since the All-Star break. Aaron Nola is the better pitcher than Schwellenbach, but the Braves have had success against Nola, while the Phillies haven’t touched Schwellenbach. At this price, we have to back Atlanta to even the series.
Aaron Nola has a lengthy history against these Braves. Over 315 PA against the Braves’ current roster, Nola is rocking a .242 opponent average, a .294 xwOBA, a .405 xSLG, and a 28% strikeout rate. Those are all solid numbers, but this year, the Braves have been better against him than they usually are.
Nola has faced the Braves three times this year and is sporting an ERA over six. It’s mainly because of his first start of the year, where he allowed six earned runs in 4.1 innings. In his next start, he allowed three runs in six innings. The following start, he allowed eight hits and two runs in 5.1 innings. He hasn’t looked great in any of these, and on the fourth time around, I’m struggling to believe it will get any better.
Nola is undoubtedly better at home, but in a divisional game like this, I put almost no stock in that. His worst start against the Braves was in Philadelphia, and obviously, the Braves have played at the Bank many times. Nola is also due for some general regression, as his 3.30 ERA should look like his 3.87 xERA and SIERA.
The Braves offense has also been better than the Phillies since August began, and over the last two weeks. Even if we go all the way back to the All-Star break, the Braves have a 104 wRC+ against righties while the Phillies are at 87. Since August began, the Phillies have a 95 wRC+, Braves at 102. Last two weeks, same story, Braves at 104, Phillies at 94. In that span, the Braves have the higher OPS, ISO, and Hard-Hit rate. The Braves were shutout yesterday and still had more hits than the Phillies did.
We also have to factor in Alec Bohm’s day-to-day status. He was out of the lineup on Saturday with a hand issue. He may play today but won’t be 100%. That’s a key cog in the Phillies lineup.
Spencer Schwellenbach is one of my favorite young pitchers in baseball right now. His ERA estimators are better than Nola’s, as he sits with a 3.13 SIERA and 3.04 xERA. He’s due for some positive regression, as both his strikeout and walk rates are above league average, he’s not allowing hard contact, and he’s rocking an above-average ground-ball rate. He’s not getting enough respect from the books yet, but eventually, he will.
He’s also faced the Phillies multiple times and been fantastic. He’s 2-0 against the Phillies in 12.2 innings while only allowing three runs, one walk, and 15 strikeouts. Through 43 PA, the Phillies have a .190 opponent average, a .239 xwOBA, and a .307 xSLG with a 27.9% strikeout rate. Elite numbers.
The bullpens are essentially a wash. Jeff Hoffman, the Phillies’ best reliever, will likely only throw today if the Phillies want him to throw three of the four games this series. If Nola gives them six, they go to Strahm, Kerkering, and Estevez; that’s a challenging task for Atlanta. However, the Braves bullpen is deeper and in a preferred rest spot. If things don’t go picture-perfect for Philly, they are in trouble.
This price is too wide for Atlanta. I’m a massive believer in Schwellenbach, and the Braves offense has been objectively better than the Phillies in the second half in this split. After getting shutout yesterday, I expect the bats to bounce back against a pitcher they’ve seen countless times. I have the Braves at +100 in this game, so anything at +115 or better is a play for me.