The Braves’ Hopes For a Deep Playoff Run Have Taken a Hit

You’re certainly not alone if you need some additional time to recover after the wild Atlanta Braves-New York Mets doubleheader on Monday. The two NL East heavyweights put on one of the best shows of the season in its final days and resulted in each of them landing a spot in this year’s playoffs.

The first game had all the makings of an all-time classic. Each team traded blows and there were many times where it seemed like one of them was going to run away with it. Instead, the contest went down to the wire, ultimately being won by the Mets on a Francisco Lindor home run in the ninth inning.

In the second game, the Braves, carried by Grant Holmes, took care of business. Sorry, Grant who? Initially, the plan was for Triple Crown and eventual Cy Young winner Chris Sale to take the mound for the second matchup. Instead, he was scratched at the last second due to back spasms.

He missed out on the most important start of his season but his teammates filled in admirably. Holmes went four shutout innings, allowing just one hit and a walk while striking out seven Mets. The 10-year minor league veteran pitched the game of his life and singlehandedly saved Atlanta’s season.

The Sale injury is one that could very well sink this ship, though. The Braves have been one of the most injury-ravaged teams in all of baseball this year and losing their clear staff ace at such a critical time is … less than ideal. He will not be available for the entirety of the upcoming Wild Card Series.

Let’s take a closer look at how the Braves got here and just how big of a hole Sale’s absence is going to leave on this squad.

The Braves Season That Was

Injuries are one of the biggest storylines of the Braves’ season (so far). It’s been well-documented by now that the club has been bit by the injury bug over and over.

As of right at this moment, here’s what the injured list looks like for Atlanta:

Position players:

3B Austin Riley, OF Ronald Acuna Jr.

Pitchers:

RHP Spencer Strider, RHP Huascar Ynoa, LHP Ray Kerr, LHP A.J. Minter, LHP Angel Perdomo

Missing Riley and Acuna in the every day lineup and Strider in the starting rotation is about as rough as it gets on the injury front. Those are three of the club’s top stars, and they’re all on the shelf at once.

At various points during the season, that list has been a lot longer.

Ozzie Albies made it into just 99 games, as he suffered a broken toe in April and then a broken left wrist in July. Michael Harris II was also limited to just 110 games, while Sean Murphy made it into 72. All told, six of the 10 Braves that were in their Opening Day lineup (this includes starting pitcher) missed at least two months of games at some point this season.

On the pitching side of things, Reynaldo Lopez and Bryce Elder are two other hurlers that didn’t make it a full season without health issues of their own.

The point here is that the Braves have battled through injuries all year. They’ve turned to the likes of Whit Merrifield, Ramon Laureano, Gio Urshela and Eli White to round out their roster, but it’s working. It seems that every time an injury popped up, the Braves just kept on rolling with their band of misfits.

The Loss of Chris Sale

The Braves have been ravaged by injuries, but it’s possible that the loss of Sale (for the Wild Card Series) could be the final nail in their coffin. At this point, the amount of players they’ve had on the shelf and the amount of time they’ve lost from their stars either means they’re cursed, or that this is their year to land another World Series ring.

Sale may not have led the Braves in the regular-season finale, but he led the National League in a whole lot of statistical categories this year. His bounce-back was something to behold. Every time he took the mound, he looked even better than the Sale of old back in his White Sox days.

All told, the quirky left-hander made 29 starts (the most he’s had since 2017) and led the NL in the following categories:

• Wins (18 – led MLB)

• ERA (2.38 – led MLB)

• Strikeouts (225)

• ERA+ (174 – led MLB)

• FIP (2.09 – led MLB)

• HR/9 (0.5 – led MLB)

• K/9 (11.4 – led MLB)

That’s, uh, pretty good. The 14-year veteran came seemingly out of nowhere to have one of the best seasons of his career, one that seemed to be winding down in the not-so-distant past. Prior to this year, Sale had made a total of 31 starts dating back to 2019. He missed all of 2020, made nine starts in 2021, two starts in 2022 and 20 decent-but-not-great starts in 2023.

Not only are we looking at the NL Comeback Player of the Year, but we’re also looking at a 35-year-old on his way to a Cy Young Award and one who will surely get his fair share of MVP votes, too. No pitcher has ever won the Triple Crown and not won the Cy Young.

How Can the Braves Manage Without Sale?

As mentioned before, the Braves have been doing this all year. An injury pops up, players step up. It’s a cycle that’s been on repeat from the get-go. If there’s any hope of maneuvering through the Wild Card Series Sale-less, the remaining pitchers on the staff are going to need more of that magic.

Max Fried, Lopez, Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach are the other four starting pitchers on the staff. With Lopez just returning from the IL and Schwellenbach taking the ball in Game 1 of Monday’s doubleheader, odds are you can count them out of starting any games in the best-of-three series.

This leaves Fried and Morton. Interestingly, Mark Bowman of MLB.com points to another pitcher as one who could make an appearance in the series, and it’s one that hasn’t made a single appearance in the big leagues since 2022.

Ian Anderson, 26, had his 2023 season wiped out by Tommy John surgery and spent the entirety of this year down in Triple-A. The right-hander made 15 starts in the minors this season, posting a 3.44 ERA across 68 innings.

Anderson has eight playoff starts under his belt and, as Bowman notes, is surprisingly one of the best playoff pitchers … ever? In 35.2 innings, he has a dazzling 1.26 ERA with 40 strikeouts against 17 walks. When the lights are the brightest, Anderson steps up. This makes him an intriguing candidate to start the first game of the Wild Card Series.

The obvious choices to follow him in the next games are Fried and Morton. The former made his second All-Star Game this season and finished the year as one of the NL’s best starting pitchers. The latter had a down year by his standards but has a lengthy track record of postseason success.

Next Up on the Docket

There’s a chance that Sale ends up being available for a playoff start, but that’d have to come in the next series. All that’s standing in Atlanta’s way is the San Diego Padres, one of the deepest and most talented teams in the game. The Padres won the season series against the Braves, winning four of their seven games.

Michael King will be the Padres’ starting pitcher for the first game of the Wild Card Series. He came over in the Juan Soto trade with the Yankees and had a season strong enough where it’s fair to say that that trade is a win for both clubs. King posted a 2.95 ERA in 30 starts this season, striking out over 200 batters and posting a 139 ERA+ along the way.

On the season, the Padres were a much better offensive team than the Braves, but Atlanta out-pitched them. The two teams have opposite strengths, but that’s going to make for some incredible baseball over the next few days.

The Braves, for the first time in a long time, enter this series as an underdog. This is still a dangerous team, and they’re going to scrap their way through the next few games as they look to keep their playoff hopes alive. Getting through the Padres will not be an easy task, but if they manage to pull it off, getting Sale back into the mix will make them that much more dangerous as they march deeper into October baseball.