Signing Danny Coulombe Could Pay Off Big for Twins

Coulombe is exactly the kind of high-upside addition the Twins needed to make.

Danny Coulombe of the Baltimore Orioles pitches against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 25: Danny Coulombe #54 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 25, 2024 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)

The Minnesota Twins have finally made a move.

On Tuesday morning, the Twins and Danny Coulombe agreed to terms on a one-year, $3 million contract for 2025. The veteran southpaw returns to Minnesota after two years in the Baltimore Orioles bullpen.

Coulombe is the first free agent the Twins have signed to a major league deal this winter.

While he isn’t the flashiest name – and he isn’t going to be the player that moves the needle for a Twins team that collapsed last September and barely finished above .500 – Coulombe is a solid pickup and a much more talented player than his $3 million price tag suggests.

Ad – content continues below

Signing Coulombe is far from the only move the Twins need to make this winter, but it’s their first step in the right direction and could end up paying off big time.

Danny Coulombe’s Late-Career Breakout

After a handful of up-and-down seasons with the Dodgers and Athletics to begin his career, Coulombe settled in nicely with the Twins, albeit in a limited sample.

In between various minor league assignments and stints on the injured list, he pitched to a 2.92 ERA and 3.81 FIP over 49.1 innings from 2020-22.

Yet, it was only after the Twins lost Coulombe to the Orioles that he truly broke out. In 2023, his age-33 season, he completely revamped his arsenal, introducing a cutter and throwing it 43.0% of the time.

The result? Coulombe pitched in 61 games, tossing 51.1 innings with a 2.81 ERA and 2.83 FIP. He earned his first career saves that season, as well as making his first postseason appearances.

According to FanGraphs WAR, he was one of the top 25 relievers in baseball.

Ad – content continues below

The 2024 season wasn’t quite as triumphant for Coulombe, as he missed more than three months on the IL due to bone chips in his elbow. However, before his IL stint, he looked even better than he had the year before. His strikeout rate was up, his walk rate was down, and he was inducing more groundballs.

Take a look at how the 2024 version of Coulombe stacks up to his 2023 self:

2023 Coulombe vs. 2024 Coulombe

YearIPERAK%BB%GB%FIPxFIPxERASIERA
202351.12.8127.6%5.7%43.7%2.833.463.063.15
202429.22.1229.9%4.7%48.6%2.832.942.912.57
Stats via FanGraphs.

Much like he did in 2023, Coulombe took another step forward by tinkering with his pitch mix. Most notably, he used his sweeper far more often. He was also throwing the pitch with more spin and more movement, both vertically and horizontally.

Coulombe’s adjustments had the intended effect. The sweeper was his most effective pitch, registering a .122 wOBA, .179 xwOBA, and +5 run value. None of his pitches had a higher whiff rate or a lower hard-hit rate than the sweeper.

So, we’re talking about a pitcher with multiple elite weapons in his arsenal. When healthy, he has pitched like one of the best relievers in baseball in each of the last two years.

Indeed, dating back to 2021, 218 pitchers have thrown at least 120 innings in relief. Only 10 have a lower ERA and a lower FIP than Coulombe. Here’s that list:

Ad – content continues below

Relievers With a Lower ERA and FIP Than Coulombe (2021-24)

RelieverIPERAFIP
Emmanuel Clase289.11.622.31
Félix Bautista126.21.852.42
Devin Williams195.01.892.43
Andrés Muñoz174.02.482.70
Ryan Helsley215.02.432.71
Raisel Iglesias257.02.422.78
Evan Phillips192.12.292.84
Jhoan Duran184.12.592.85
Ryan Walker120.02.552.87
Blake Treinen124.01.962.96
Danny Coulombe126.02.713.00
Min. 120 IP. Stats via FanGraphs.

The only pitchers in that cohort, aside from Coulombe, who aren’t their team’s definitive closer are Evan Phillips and Blake Treinen – and that’s only because the Dodgers have about five closers in their bullpen right now. Point being, it’s a wildly impressive group to be a part of.

I’m not trying to argue Coulombe is the same caliber of pitcher as any of those other names. However, he has a lot more in common with them than his $3 million salary would have you believe.

Of course, it’s not hard to find reasons to worry about Coulombe. There’s a reason the Orioles declined his $4 million team option in November. There’s a reason he had to settle for a one-year, $3 million guarantee in February.

As good as Coulombe was in 2024, he wasn’t without his red flags. Although his strikeout rate was up and his walk rate was down, his whiff and chase rates were both surprisingly low. He also gave up significantly more hard contact than he did in 2023 – even though you wouldn’t know it from the results.

What’s more, the lefty turned 35 in October, and he underwent elbow surgery just last summer. He has never pitched more than 51.2 MLB innings in a season. He’s only thrown as many as 40 innings in a season twice. Durability and regression are serious concerns.

Still, if Coulombe can stay healthy and continue to pitch the way he has for the last four years, the Twins just signed one of the better lefty relievers in the game at an absolute bargain price.

Ad – content continues below

Coulombe Is A Perfect Fit for the Twins

The Twins could have one of the better bullpens in MLB next season. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax are a nasty one-two punch at the back end, arguably the best in baseball. Cole Sands is another valuable piece following his breakout season in 2024.

However, Minnesota didn’t have any reliable left-handed relievers after losing bullpen mainstay Caleb Thielbar to free agency. They also don’t have much lefty depth in the rotation. So, an arm like Coulombe was a much-needed addition.

Coulombe was arguably the top left-handed reliever still available. And considering the Twins were never going to spend the money to sign a name like Tanner Scott, Aroldis Chapman, or A.J. Minter, one could argue Coulombe was always their perfect target.

Twins fans have every reason to be upset that this is their team’s biggest move of the offseason so far – and perhaps the only signing the club will make. I’m not here to praise the Twins for spending a lousy three million bucks.

Still, I have to admit that this particular signing was exactly what the Twins needed to do. Not only does Coulombe fill a much-needed hole as a high-leverage lefty reliever, but he comes with enormous upside – and the Twins need all the upside they can get if they’re going to compete with the best of the American League in 2025.

Ad – content continues below