The Giants Cannot Afford to Miss on Another First Round Pick

For north of a decade, the San Francisco Giants have struggled to draft in the first round. While virtually every other team in baseball has had a handful of success stories out of the early parts of the draft, San Francisco hasn’t had much to boast about.

With the 2026 draft being less just over a week away, the Giants have a big decision on their hands. After lucking into the fourth overall selection, there’s pressure on Buster Posey, Zack Minasian, and their entire scouting department to get this one right.

In a time where the organization is stuck in between developing a young wave of exciting prospects (Gonzalez, Level, Hernandez, etc.) and pushing for contention with an expensive core (Devers, Adames, Chapman, Lee, etc.), it’s easy to see why San Francisco needs to get this right.

The problem is, they haven’t been able to do that all that often in recent memory.

The Good

The most glaring first-round success story for the Giants is a 21-year-old who’s broken into Major League Baseball just this year. Bryce Eldridge was the organization’s earliest selection back in 2023 as the 16th overall pick and has turned into one of the best young hitters in baseball.

In just 176 plate appearances this season, he has a 131 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR spending most of his time as the team’s designated hitter. It’s worth mentioning that despite being projected as a below average defender at the position, Eldridge has posted a Fielding Run Value of 1 alongside 1 Out Above Average in 68 innings at first base this year.

If everything comes together for him, there’s 40-home run upside in the bat. Unfortunately, after Eldridge, there’s only one name that is a surefire positive out of the first round.

Heliot Ramos was the nineteenth overall selection in the 2017 draft and has turned into a slightly above-average big-leaguer. While the defense has been abysmal in left field, his bat has been above average by wRC+ in every full season in the big-leagues and currently sits at 107 across his career.

In 2024, Ramos completely broke out and was named an All-Star, but that season has started to look like the outlier rather than the norm for the 26-year-old.

The other name to mention in the successes is no longer with the San Francisco Giants. Patrick Bailey is one of the more polarizing players in baseball and really tests how much one values defense behind the plate.

On one side of the debate, Bailey has been the best defender in the sport since his debut, accumulating a Fielding Run Value of 81 since the start of 2023 — nearly 30 points higher than the runner-up, Bobby Witt Jr.

On the flip side, during that span, Bailey’s .607 OPS is the fourth worst mark in baseball among qualified hitters. However, thanks to his glove, he’s been able to rack up the sixth-most value among catchers with 10.1 fWAR.

Even with the encouraging value provided, it’s hard to confidently call that pick a success considering he’s simply not a big-league caliber hitter and now plays for the Cleveland Guardians.

The Bad

The one disappointment that stands out is Joey Bart, the second overall pick back in 2018. The backstop looked like a surefire big-leaguer out of college and the Giants were so confident that they allocated north of $7 million to him, which is still the highest bonus given to a first-rounder in the history of the franchise.

While one could argue he was slightly rushed to the show, he absolutely mashed in the minor leagues. After Posey’s retirement in the 2021 offseason, Bart was basically handed the keys to the catching position in San Francisco.

Unfortunately, he posted just a .660 OPS in his first full season (2022) which was followed by Bailey cementing himself as the then future catcher of the club. Now, Bart’s playing for his third team and will likely be a backup for the rest of his career.

Unsurprisingly, the other four first-rounders we have yet to discuss haven’t come necessary close to becoming difference-makers for the Giants.

James Tibbs III (2024) does look like a formidable outfield prospect, but for the rival Dodgers. Reggie Crawford (2022) showed some exciting stuff as a potential reliever but has gone through two consecutive shoulder surgeries. Will Bednar (2021) has turned into what could be a future reliever, but has been limited thanks to underwhelming command. Lastly, Hunter Bishop (2019) didn’t have a season in 2020 and after two below average seasons in Triple-A between 2024 and 2025, is seemingly out of professional baseball.

An Organization Defining Pick

While it’s hard to place the future of an organization on one single pick, it’s hard not to in the Giants situation. It seemed like a championship window was opening with an expensive core, but San Francisco has been one of the worst teams in baseball.

Giants fans need something to be excited about and outside of Eldridge and a few teenage shortstop prospects, there isn’t much. With the upcoming fourth overall pick, Posey has the opportunity to fully rejuvenate the future of the Giants.

It’s hard to find success as a ball club when you consistently miss out on free agents and fail in drafting big-league talent. Whether it ends up being Jackson Flora, Jacob Lombard, or a different prospect, it’s clear that this franchise can’t afford to miss on yet another first round pick, especially with it being this high.

Will this selection add to an improving farm system and future or be another miss for an organization drowning in mediocrity?