Young Pitching Talent Highlights the Cardinals’ Future

Coming off of an 83-win campaign in 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals are basically the third-best team in the National League Central, and they’re looking to shake things up. After finishing 10 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in their division, they’ve done nothing to improve their roster, so a bounce-back is likely not in the cards.

Instead, the Cardinals have moved on from Paul Goldschmidt, while dangling the likes of Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray and Ryan Helsley in trade talks. To date, no major trades have gone down, but it seems that the organization is understanding exactly where they’re at heading into 2025.

Armed with a big league roster that looks great on paper but consistently fails to gel perfectly, we’re looking at a team that won’t get it done in the coming season either. The simple truth is that they’re tied down to too many aging players who can’t be relied upon anymore.

Despite the fact that the Cardinals’ farm system landed in the No. 14 spot in Keith Law’s latest ranking (and No. 18 by Baseball America), there’s a ton of pitching talent coming up through the ranks that could make this weird rebuild/retool period shorter than anticipated.

Let’s specifically highlight some of the arms that will lead the Cardinals through their next window of contention.

The Cardinals Massive Wave of Pitching Prospects

LHP Quinn Mathews

Highest level: Triple-A

Just Baseball Cardinals ranking: 2

JB Top 100 ranking: 27

Mathews, 24, is right on the cusp of his big league debut. The left-hander is an absolute strikeout machine and will likely see some in The Show at some point in the coming season.

Armed with a lethal four-pitch mix that’s highlighted by his changeup and slider, Mathews also boasts a mid-90s fastball that is also considered to be an above-average offering. Walks bit him a bit in his first go-round in Triple-A, but he’s likely going to start there in 2025 and may not stick around for long.

In his first season as a professional, Mathews began in Low-A and finished in Triple-A. Across the four levels, he made 26 starts, going 8-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 12.7 K/9. He is very stingy when it comes to giving up the longball and he only surrendered a combined 5.7 H/9 in 143.1 innings.

Mathews has gotten love all around the industry when it comes to Cardinals prospect rankings. We’ve only seen one year of him as a pro, but he’s already got “stud” written all over him. A 2025 ETA is more than reasonable.

RHP Tink Hence

Highest level: Double-A

Just Baseball ranking: 3

JB Top 100: 47

Right behind Mathews in Aram Leighton’s latest top-15 list is Hence, the Cardinals’ second-round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft. The right-hander has been on a gradual ascent through the minor league ranks dating back to 2021, but he really seemed to find his footing this past year in Double-A.

In 20 starts for the Springfield Cardinals, Hence posted a 2.71 ERA with 109 strikeouts and 26 walks in just under 80 innings of work. While his K/9 was at 9.3 between two levels the year before, this shot up to 12.3 this past year, which is the highest he’s had in a single season of 60 or more innings.

Similarly to Mathews, Hence has a bunch of different tools at his disposal on the mound. He’s got a four-pitch mix, with three of them being above-average offerings, but less than 80 innings through 20 starts suggests he needs to improve his ability to go deeper into games if he intends to capitalize on the mid-rotation potential he’s shown previously.

It’d be interesting to see how Hence performs in a high-leverage relief role if he is given the opportunity. An expansive repertoire highlighted by three secondaries full of movement is great and all, but he’s an undersized pitcher who comes with a good deal of durability concerns and has already had to deal with a variety of different nagging injuries early on in his development.

Best case scenario? Hence is able to put it all together for another year and cements himself as a future No. 2 or No. 3 in the Cardinals’ rotation.

Worst case? He turns his focus to short-stint relief outings and both player and team reap the benefits.

LHP Cooper Hjerpe

Highest level: Double-A

Just Baseball ranking: 5

The proud owner of an extremely unorthodox delivery, Hjerpe uses this to his advantage and has done an outstanding job at getting outs since making his pro debut in 2023. The southpaw was taken by the Cardinals in the first round of the 2022 draft and has been punching tickets since day one.

In 2024, the soon-to-be 23-year-old made just 15 starts, striking out 76 and walking 28 across 52.1 innings. In that time, he also allowed just three home runs, good for a miniscule 0.3 HR/9. Over his last three outings of the season, he had two five-inning, no-hit performances with 17 strikeouts, two hits allowed, no runs and just four walks. That’ll play just fine.

As is the case with Hence, Hjerpe has ran into some early-career durability concerns. He has yet to top the 52-inning plateau and he averaged less than four innings per start this past season.

However, he’s got a four-pitch mix that does a great job of keeping the opposition off balance, so we’re looking at either a back-end starter or long relief option by the time he reaches the game’s highest level.

RHP Tekoah Roby

Highest level: Double-A

Just Baseball ranking: 8

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but Roby is yet another pitcher who has a four-pitch mix and the stuff to excel as a future starter, but he can’t stay healthy. He’s got four seasons of pro ball under his belt, but the past two have been injury-riddled. As a starting pitcher, 223 innings across four years is not a number you want to see.

This past year, Roby faced considerable adversity, finishing his season with a 6.57 ERA, as well as a lowered K/9 and elevated BB/9 from the year prior. He’s shown in the past that he can punch tickets with the best of them, but 2025 is going to be a telling year for him.

There’s no doubt that Roby’s got the upside to be a middle-of-the-rotation arm down the line, but he needs to stay healthy, or he could be another future relief pitcher in the making. We’ve seen him utilize his huge curveball to his advantage over the years, so having him lean on that as his primary out-pitch as a reliever wouldn’t quite be the worst outcome, but he can be a solid starting pitcher if the stars align in 2025.

RHP Michael McGreevy

Highest level: MLB

Just Baseball ranking: 9

The Cardinals’ first-round pick in the 2021 draft, McGreevy is one of two building-block type of arms that’s already made it to the big leagues. The right-hander made three starts (and one three-inning relief appearance) in The Show this past year and he looked excellent.

All told, McGreevy struck out 18 batters while walking just two in 23 innings of work. That 1.96 ERA and 2.56 FIP leaves Cardinals fans with plenty to be excited about. His final outing of the year came on Sept. 29 when he went eight innings of one-run ball against the Giants.

McGreevy is not quite going to be the anchor to this starting rotation down the line, but he’s groundball-oriented and consistently shown over the years that he’s durable and reliable. Nothing about his repertoire is going to knock your socks off, but his low-90s fastball pairs nicely with multiple secondary pitches that have a lot of life.

RHP Gordon Graceffo

Highest level: MLB

Just Baseball ranking: Honorable Mention

Graceffo only received a 7.2-inning cameo in the big leagues this past year, so there’s not much to go off of in that sample. However, he’s shown over the years in the minors that he’s a McGreevy type of pitcher that rarely misses starts and eats innings.

There isn’t a whole lot about Graceffo that’ll blow you away, but he’s gradually turning into a command-first type of pitcher who manages his pitch mix well and is a capable back-end starter/multi-inning reliever in the making.

When Will They Get Their Shot?

Things are going to end up working out perfectly for the Cardinals and their pitching prospects. As things currently stand, their 2025 starting rotation will look something like this:

• Sonny Gray: free agent after 2026 (on the trade block)

• Miles Mikolas: free agent after 20225

• Erick Fedde: free agent after 2025

• Steven Matz: free agent after 2025

• Andre Pallante: free agent after 2028

There’s a very good chance that four of these players are not on the roster anymore by this time next year. The stage will be set for the aging veterans to be ushered out the door and the next wave of talent immediately stepping in and taking their place(s).

Historically, the Cardinals have never had issues putting together a reliable starting rotation. Yet, it’s hard to ignore the fact that they haven’t finished in the top-five in NL SP ERA since the 2020 season. Moving on from unproductive and aging players in favor of arms like Mathews, Hence, Hjerpe and McGreevy feels like something that’ll be the golden ticket for this club.