The Phillies Rushed Andrew Painter and Are Paying For it

The early stages of the 2026 MLB campaign have not been kind to Philadelphia Phillies righty Andrew Painter, and it appears the club may have rushed him into the back of their rotation.

Coming off a season where Just Baseball’s No. 21 prospect failed to showcase development with Triple-A Lehigh Valley, the Phillies decided to thrust Painter into the rotation, expecting his development to take that next step with the big-league staff.

Painter, the organization’s 2021 first-round selection, flew up prospect rankings following his first full professional season where the 6-foot-7 righty rose through Philadelphia’s minor-league system, dominating Single-A Clearwater and through Double-A Reading.

Painter established himself as a premier prospect. Despite his poor performance in 2025 and missing all of the 2023 and 2024 baseball seasons, the Phillies entered 2026 with expectations still sky high.

Painter’s Rise

In 2022, Painter split time pretty evenly between three different levels of the Phillies farm system. He started the season in Single-A Clearwater, where he quickly proved he was too talented. The hard-throwing righty posted a 1.40 ERA across 38.2 innings, fanning 69 hitters.

The production was enough for the Phillies to move him up to High-A, where he looked even more sharp. At Jersey Shore, Painter owned a 0.98 ERA in 36.2 innings of work, striking out 49. The Phillies were more than excited to move their 19-year-old prospect up to Double-A in his first full season.

As expected, the video game numbers Painter put up in the lower levels regressed slightly. However, Painter was still exceptional. In 28.1 innings with Reading, Painter sported a 2.54 ERA while racking up 37 strikeouts. When the season wrapped, Philadelphia was feeling ecstatic with how Painter fared in his first season of professional baseball.

Unfortunately for Painter, an injury in early 2023 put him on the shelf. Ultimately, the Phillies decided Tommy John surgery was the best option for their top prospect. The surgery took place in late July of 2023, and held him out for the rest of the season and the entirety of 2024.

The Phillies’ expectations for their future ace did not waver coming into the 2025 season, and the club even had stated their ambition to have him join the big-league rotation around the All-Star break.

After a few rehab starts in Single-A, the Phillies slid Painter all the way up to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Painter’s campaign with the IronPigs, however, left a lot to be desired.

In 106.2 innings, Painter fell to a 5.40 ERA, walking 46 hitters and getting shelled to a tune of a .281 average against. A season in which the Phillies expected their top prospect to become a key piece in their rotation ended up being one where Painter had to be confined to Triple-A for the duration of the season.

Phillies’ Faith Entering 2026

Philadelphia expressed their confidence in Painter at the beginning of 2026. The expectation was for Painter to make the Opening Day roster and slot into the rotation.

While Spring Training is not a great indicator of regular-season success, Painter looked sharp enough to warrant the Phillies’ confidence. He threw 11.2 innings with a 2.31 ERA, solidifying his spot with the big-league roster out of camp.

Painter hasn’t been able to find his footing at the big-league level, and the Phillies are trying to build his confidence and develop him on the fly.

The Phillies rotation did not meet expectations to start the season. Aaron Nola has struggled, Jesus Luzardo has underperformed, and Taijuan Walker faltered before his release. Painter is another arm the Phillies hope to have a turnaround.

Painter has appeared in 10 games with Philadelphia in his rookie campaign, tallying 50 innings in which he has a 5.40 ERA, allowing 10.3 hits per nine with a 1.46 WHIP.

The numbers look bad, but some metrics show he has not been as bad as his ERA suggests. He currently sits at a 4.37 FIP and a 4.34 xERA, per Baseball Savant. The aforementioned numbers are not great, but it has not been all bad for the 23-year-old hurler.

Diving Into His Poor Start

Painter features a fastball that sits around 96.5 mph, but it has not played well thus far in his big-league career. In 2026, the opposition is hitting .373 while slugging .547 against Painter’s heater.

A pitch that was his highest-graded asset has been the biggest reason for his struggles at the big-league level. According to Baseball Savant, his fastball run value ranks in the seventh percentile.

Painter’s sinker has seen a similar lack of production in the bigs. Opponents are hitting .308 and slugging .577 against the pitch. The opposition mashing his fastball and sinker, along with him not generating swing-and-miss on them, are huge reasons for his early-season problems.

Painter has also been unable to consistently avoid barrels in 2026. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 43rd percentile in barrel percentage. Painter has been able to avoid barrels with his splitter, sweeper, and curveball, though. The rookie’s splitter has generated a 40% whiff percentage.

Painter’s fastball has not looked ready for Major League Baseball, and he may have benefited from more time in the minors to refine the pitch. If he can improve it working at the big-league level with pitching coach Caleb Cotham, he may be able to turn around his fortunes in the 2026 campaign.

Painter Showing Ability to Adapt

Despite the underwhelming performance out of the gate for Painter, he has turned in a few good starts in his last three appearances. Following an outing where Painter got tagged for eight runs against the Athletics, he has responded with performances that give the Phillies hope he can dig himself out of the rough start.

While the strikeout numbers have been down during his recent success, his ability to keep the Phillies in the game recently is a step in the right direction for the young pitcher.

On May 13, Painter took the mound in at Fenway against the Red Sox, and tossed five innings of one-run ball. The Phillies attempt to build up his confidence was on full display in that outing, as they yanked him from the game with just 62 pitches. Mattingly and the Phillies brass took this measure so Painter could leave the game feeling good about himself to spark a turnaround.

Painter once again was pulled from a good outing with under 70 pitches in an effort against the Reds, where he tossed six innings allowing just two runs. Bullpen matchups played a role in his removal with just 69 pitches, but they also wanted him to have a good outing to build on.

His most recent outing came against one of the hottest teams in baseball in the Cleveland Guardians. Painter scattered six hits in 6.1 innings, allowing just two earned runs.

The Phillies may have prioritized immediate rotation help over Painter’s long-term development, and early returns suggest the organization underestimated how much refinement he still needed. Still, the flashes remain obvious, and at just 23 years old, Painter still has time to develop into the frontline starter Philadelphia envisioned.