What Will MLB’s Most Interesting Man Do at the Deadline This Year?

Everyone loves themselves a fresh plate of trade deadline spice. The All-Star break festivities are lovely, but they’re really just a distractive appetizer for the full course meal of the szn that elicits great joy, or great disappointment. But for the San Diego Padres in particular, the trade deadline is something else entirely. 

It’s their Comic Con, their Eras Tour, or perhaps more sinisterly their Burning Man all rolled into one continually crazy experience that might come off as a bit daunting to outsiders. And just like all (sorta cult?) community experiences of this ilk, there’s a (again, maybe cult?) leader in charge of creating it: general manager AJ Preller. He simply doesn’t know how to chill out, as evidenced by nearly every deadline since 2018. 

Odds are, he’s leaving with something. 

While this deadline is likely to be a bit more tame compared to the Infinity Wars of previous years, the stakes of making a movie might actually be higher. With a new head ownership group following the passing of owner Peter Seidler — who was also believed to be Preller’s biggest advocate — and uncertain financials for the team, it’s possible that a change could be in order if the team disappoints yet again.

Preller has always seemed to operate like his job was on the hotseat, so imagine the danger of an unhinged Preller. 

But it won’t just be about having the bravado to pull off a trade, as this year’s market is a bit tricky to navigate and the team’s needs are pretty substantial. Mainly, it’s the pitching. Because, boy, is their pitching situation a dire one.

The Padres Need Pitching

Currently, the Padres starting pitcher ERA (3.93) ranks 13th among all teams, while their bullpen ERA (4.19) is ranked 20th. You might be thinking that the former isn’t all that bad, which is fair. At the present time, the Padres starting pitching has treaded water quite well given the circumstances. But when you think again about those circumstances — starter Michael King not ever having pitched this many innings before, and the uncertainty surrounding Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove’s availability — things become a lot more dire. 

And then there’s the bullpen, which has struggled massively despite the offseason overhaul and some genuinely elite arms under its control. So basically, what I’m getting at, if I may, is that AJ Preller has quite the job ahead of him. 

Magnificently Awesome Trade Idea #1: Carlos Estevez (RP), Los Angeles Angels 

Even with everything mentioned already, it still needs to be stressed just how loathsome this Padres bullpen has been this season. The trio of rookie Jeremiah Estrada, the suddenly rejuvenated Adrian Morejon, and all-star closer Robert Suarez have been excellent, but the Padres bullpen as a whole has been nothing short of calamitous. If you look at any given day’s box score, you’re almost guaranteed to find at least one reliever who completely self-combusted. 

Whether it be Enyel De Los Santos (4.70 ERA), Stephen Kolek (5.52 ERA), Wandy Peralta (4.50 ERA, 5.67 FIP), or any of the coterie of call-ups they’ve made, watching the Padres bullpen is often like standing next to a forest fire in complete resignation. Their unit is also sporting a 7.27 ERA in high leverage situations, which ranks 24th in the sport. 

That’s where Carlos Estévez, who’s having a breakout season with a 2.38 ERA and, even more impressively a 2.85 FIP, comes in. 

He’s always been capable of getting strikeouts, but the combination of pitching mostly in Coors Field and his walk rate haven’t done him any favors. This season, however, he’s finally seemed to manage some control, with a 4% walk rate compared to the 9.3% average rate in all his seasons prior to this year. 

Plus, he’s a free agent after this season, which will likely keep his asking price low and not pin the Padres into a corner given their aforementioned financial concerns.

Trade Idea #2: Zach Eflin (SP) + Pete Fairbanks (RP)

It had been tempting to say the Padres should’ve tried to go for the cross-arm-posing champion in Randy Arozarena given the injury to Fernando Tatis Jr. While such a move wouldn’t have received any dissent from me, the Mariners swiped him before the Padres could even consider it. There’s been optimism surrounding the injury and his ability to come back, plus the Padres offense has been eons better than it was in 2023, thanks in large part to Jackson Merrill’s rockstar rookie campaign, Jurickson Profar’s sudden transition into being a demi-god, Jake Cronenworth’s bounce back, and even the solid play of Donovan Solano. 

So instead, it may behoove the Padres to avoid being too aggressive for a bat and — if there’s fear that their best producers might have a 2nd-half fall off in production — be excited about the lineup getting even better if Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts play up to their star potential. 

Pitching is always hard to come by, and bringing it up as a need often comes off as pretty redundant, but that’s the focus. And what better team than the Rays, who have been on the bad side of more than one Padres trade. Why not go for a 3rd?

Eflin

Zach Eflin isn’t having a stellar season compared to his standards set in 2023, but has been solid nonetheless. And even if his 2023 season was his peak, his 3.37 xERA portends of some better luck in the future and his career, as a whole, suggests he could be reliable enough to simply toss some innings. The Padres need some damn innings. 

Fairbanks

And then there’s Pete Fairbanks, whose sudden fall off in strikeout rate is a bit concerning (22.4% compared to a career 31.8%). But, at the very minimum, we’ve seen how affective he’s been before and his salary is fairly negligible, and if he were to revert to his more dominant ways than the club option for $7 million could be intriguing. 

Plus, the Rays are notoriously cheap, so going to them for some pitching help just makes sense.

Trade Idea #3: Jack Flaherty (SP) + Andrew Chafin (RP)

If the Padres wanted to go for a Big Sexy move, this could be it. There are some star level players on the market, and the team has already been reported to have an interest in Garrett Crochet. But there are a couple of reasons for why it may not be the ideal course of action.

The first is that I know for a fact (making a baseless assumption) that two teams have never really made two huge trades with one another in the same season, so one can only assume there’s some sort of karmic curse that has made it so. The second — and actually, no laughing matter, serious — reason is that the Padres need to stop relying on blockbuster, farm-emptying moves to improve their team. It’s fun, but the overall results have been shaky (the team has won more than 85 games only once under Preller’s tenure). 

There are also recent reports that top prospects Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries are untouchable, so such a dynamic move may not be possible with their current farm system.

Flaherty

But! A player like Flaherty can be the best of both worlds, as he’s pitched like a superstar (2.95 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 32% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate) and is unlikely to cost too much given he’s a free agent after the season. He should be the prime target for the Padres, and even if the season doesn’t result in a playoff berth, it seems like they won’t have to have given up much to acquire him, setting them up to bounce back in 2025. 

Chafin

And then there’s Chafin, whose age (34) may not quite fit the Big Sexy Move line of thinking, but he’s been a fairly solid reliever for many years. This season, in particular, has been phenomenal, with nice peripherals to support it and perhaps one of the best sliders amongst relievers (53% whiff rate). 

Plus, he has a club option for next season, so the Padres would once again not be killing any of their future flexibility if they so desire. 

Sometimes, the trade deadline is about what you don’t do, and it feels like the no.1 thing the Padres shouldn’t do is overplay their hand and deplete the farm yet. I’m actually fairly certain there’s a famous quote about doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results. 

But that doesn’t mean they can’t try, and the Padres management with AJ Preller at the helm is, admirably, guilty of just that.