What Do The New York Yankees Do If They Don’t Sign Juan Soto?

I hope this article is an enormous waste of time.

Every night, I lay awake dreading Juan Soto’s free agency decision. As Yankee fans, we witnessed the 21st-century version of Ruth and Gehrig or Mantle and Dimaggio.

Watching Soto hand the baton to Aaron Judge was equivalent to watching the sunset over the horizon with a cold drink in hand and toes in the sand. I can’t stand to see Soto play for another team after just one season, but it could be the reality we live in soon.

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, “Sources involved in the Juan Soto talks expect the teams to begin forwarding offers this week. To date, the process has been about Soto meeting with teams/club officials and about those officials getting to know Soto.”

A handful of teams flew out to meet with him, and a few more are expected to be in the running. According to CBS, the Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Mets met with him, and the Phillies, Royals, and Rays haven’t confirmed meetings but are in on the race.

Rumors continue to swirl, but we are still a few weeks from the winter meetings, where rumors become a reality. It’s all speculation where he will end up, but this article isn’t about that.

We are here to answer; what will the Yankees do if they don’t sign Juan Soto?

“Recreate Him in the Aggregate” – Billy Beane, Moneyball

That stupid Moneyball meme continues its stranglehold on my brain. That’s where we are at, but we can do it. Or at least, I tell myself that to make me feel better.

Juan Soto played 145 games in right field last year, so the common thought is that if he signs somewhere else, let’s replace him with a right fielder.

Luckily, Aaron Judge can play center field or right field and Jasson Dominguez likely will fill the other outfield spot. The Yankees have the freedom to add the best player available, whether through free agency or trades, without worrying as much about which outfield position that player plays.

If Soto leaves, I would like the Yankees to sign one of the two options written about below, while also making a trade. The Yankees will lose Alex Verdugo as well, and Jasson Dominguez could very well be the clear-cut answer next year, but banking on that makes me nervous.

Yankees Top Free Agent Targets

There are plenty of free agents available that can play the outfield. I narrowed down my search to the two I wanted on the Yankees. I considered players like Michael Conforto, Max Kepler, Tyler O’Neil, or Mark Canha, but if we have to replace Juan Soto, those guys aren’t enough.

Sign Anthony Santander to a four-year deal worth $80M

Pretty self-explanatory here. Judge stays in the center, Dominguez in the left, and Santander in the right.

Since 2022, he has more home runs than Juan Soto and ranks sixth in the league with 105 home runs. That’s more than Yordan Alvarez, Mookie Betts, Austin Riley, and Jose Ramirez.

Santander can replace Soto’s power for a lot less money, and by wRC+, he’s been 24% better than the league-average hitter since 2022. Clearly, Soto is the better hitter and is much younger, but Santander will be 30 next year, it’s not as if he’s ancient.

A big reason we all love Juan Soto is his ability to limit the strikeouts while taking plenty of free passes. He’s nearly an impossible out.

Santander doesn’t walk like Soto, but he has posted an above-average walk rate in the past three seasons. Santander is not your classic swing-and-miss guy who taps into crazy power; he only struck out 19.4% of the time last year, just 3% more than Soto and 5% lower than Judge.

He is also a switch-hitter, which adds an element that Juan Soto can’t.

He can take advantage of the short porch or be another power-righty against left-handed pitching. Santander would be an excellent fit, and he’s about an eighth of the price.

The Yankees would also be taking away a bat from their rival Orioles, but that’s just a bonus. Overall, this makes a lot of sense and it’s an easy move to make.

Sign Teoscar Hernandez to a three-year deal worth $63M

Teoscar is a slightly cheaper, but older version of Santander. Teoscar hits for plenty of power but plays below-average defense in a corner outfield spot. If the Yankees did sign Teoscar, he would play right field, move Judge to center, and Dominguez would play left if that’s the only move they make to address the outfield.

Teoscar is coming off a great year for the Dodgers, posting a 3.5 fWAR and a 134 wRC+. He hit 33 home runs, stole 12 bases, and slashed .272/.339/.501. In the playoffs, he put up a 119 wRC+ and was a huge piece of the Dodgers 2024 World Series run.

He does strike out more than I would like, but he’s still a better all-around hitter than Santander. He provides a lot of the power Santander does, but he gets on base more consistently and hits for a higher average.

Even when Santander put up 44 home runs last year, Teoscar was the more valuable player by fWAR.

Basically, if the Yankees don’t sign Juan Soto, they should sign either one of these two names. They can replace the power they’ll lose with Soto, but they’ll still need to do more. Instead of signing both, let’s look at some potential trades the Yankees can make.

Big Time Trade Ideas

If the Yankees don’t sign Soto, simply signing Santander or Hernandez won’t be enough to win, and it definitely won’t be enough for Yankee fans. There aren’t any other free agent outfielders that would make a big impact, so we’ll direct our attention to the trade market to finalize this outfield.

Trade for Byron Buxton from the Minnesota Twins

The Twins are amid a television rights battle, so they could be in the market to move off some of their larger contracts, especially in the outfield, where they have plenty of talent on the roster and coming up in the minor leagues. He’s making $15M a year over the next four years, and he’s just 31 years old. He put up 3.7 fWAR in just over 100 games this year with a 142 wRC+.

Buxton is an incredible talent. He’s an elite center-field defender and adds an element of speed the Yankees don’t have. He also hits for plenty of power and would be an incredible addition to the Yankees or any team. Twins fans don’t want him traded for a reason.

The problem with Buxton is his inability to stay on the field. Last season, he played 102 games, the most he’s played since 2018. Maybe the Twins are growing tired with him being on the IL more often than not, so they’ll listen if the package is right.

If the Yankees were to trade for Buxton, it would make sense for them to sign someone like Santander as well. An outfield of Judge, Buxton, and Santander is very exciting, and it allows Dominguez to mature a bit longer. If any of them hit the shelf, he can take that role.

Even if the Twins are cutting payroll, which is no guarantee, they would only move Buxton if they get pieces that can help them win now.

Centering the deal with young bats that have made their debut, like Oswald Peraza, Everson Pereira, or Ben Rice, could be a starting point. It would likely take more than that, even if the Yankees ate every cent of the contract.

An offer of Oswald Peraza, Everson Pereira, and Chase Hampton would be enough to get in the door with Minnesota. All three prospects can help the Twins in 2025 and are 24 years old or younger. I hope the Yankees at least try and give Minnesota a ring, just to test the waters.

Trade for Adolis Garcia from the Texas Rangers

The thinking here is cut from a similar cloth to the Buxton trade. The Texas Rangers have also been rumored to be cutting payroll among TV rights battles, and after a rough season, would they listen on the 31-year-old right fielder?

Garcia is coming off a weird year. In 2023, he put up a 4.6 fWAR, hit 39 home runs, and put up a .836 OPS. Then in the playoffs, he hit 8 home runs in 15 games, and was named the ALCS MVP. From 2021-2022, he averaged a 3.0 fWAR with nearly 30 home runs and 20 stolen bases.

Last season, his wRC+ dropped to 92, and his defense declined rapidly. He won the gold glove in 2023, but in 2024, he was a terrible defender in right field. The defense regressed mightily, as did his offense numbers. He couldn’t hit a fastball all year, recording a -15 RV against fastballs while hitting .184 with a .310 SLG against that pitch.

Is he just bad now? I have a hard time believing that. He’s going to be 32 years old in 2025, and maybe a fresh start on a new team could get him back to being the player he was just last year.

My hope is that when he’s hitting, the defense follows. It makes no sense to me that he would taper off that badly in one year on defense.

What would a package look like for Garcia? The Yankees would get him for two years, and he’s not very expensive. If they traded for him last year, the package would have been huge. At this point, they can buy low if the Rangers are willing to listen.

Spencer Jones, one of the Yankees best prospects, could be enough to get the deal done in a one-for-one swap. Jones is an exciting prospect due to his power potential, but after back-to-back seasons with an OPS under .800 in the minors with a lot of swing-and-miss, maybe both players could use a change of scenery. If that’s too rich for the Yankees, centering it around Roderick Arias, while attaching another prospect, should be enough to get these two teams talking.

If they were to trade for Adolis Garcia, then signing Teoscar to play left field would be the best option. Teoscar in left, Judge in center, and Adolis Garcia in right field. That outfield will undoubtedly swing and miss a lot, but the power potential has me salivating.

Trade for Jake McCarthy from the Arizona Diamondbacks

“The Arizona Diamondbacks are shopping starter Jordan Montgomery, and listening to offers on outfielders Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas,” Bob Nightengale reported for USA Today.

McCarthy is a good fit for the Yankees if they sign Santander or Teoscar. He’s not a good enough player to be the big piece they add on it’s own, but he’s definitely worth a phone call to Arizona.

The 26-year-old is coming off a 3.0 fWAR season while posting a 110 wRC+. He’s not a power threat, and he doesn’t hit the ball that hard, but he does everything else. Think of Alex Verdugo with better defense and much more speed.

He stole 25 bases last year and was one of the best defenders in the outfield last year. He can play all three positions, giving the Yankees plenty of versatility. If the Yankees want to make a point of getting faster and better on defense, he’s the guy the Yankees should be taking a look at. Figuring out a package for him is difficult, but the Yankees can make that decision as they see fit.

Trade for Christian Yelich from the Milwaukee Brewers

There is maybe a 1% chance of this happening, but this is my article and my fantasy world so just let me roll with it for a second.

Ryan Finkelstein wrote a piece last offseason on why the New York Mets are an ideal trade partner with the Brewers if they were interested in moving on. I recommend checking that article out because I’m stealing all of his analysis, but instead, I’m substituting “Yankees” for “Mets.” It’s only fair; you’re trying to steal Juan Soto from us anyway.

Yelich signed a 7-year, $188.5M extension with Milwaukee in 2020, so he will become an unrestricted free agent once he’s 38 years old in 2029. The Brewers will likely keep him because he’s fantastic, but the Brewers are always looking to move off big contracts.

He’s also likely to play DH now that Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, and Sal Frelick all look like building blocks. For the right price, I could see them being willing to part with Yelich after only playing 73 games last year, a season-ended by back surgery.

It’s difficult to say what the Brewers would want for him, but the Yankees have the system to make a move like this. Yelich is a fantastic bat when healthy, and in those 73 games he played last year, he stole 21 bases.

The Yankees really need an influx of speed, among other elite qualities Yelich brings to the Brewers. He’s not Juan Soto, but at his best, it’s hard to find other left-handed hitters that can rival him.

The Yankees could acquire him without parting with Jasson Dominguez. If Adames leaves, they may want an infield prospect like a Roderick Arias, our sixth-ranked prospect in the Yankees system.

They could also add Ben Hess to the trade, the Yankees first round pitching prospect from 2024. If the Brewers want more, I’d be willing to include a pitcher like Henry Lalane, a 20-year-old left-hander with the tools to be a front-line pitcher. Three top 10 prospects in the Yankees system could get the Brewers to listen, but ultimately, he likely stays put. I do think it’s a move worth exploring.

The Final Outfield

If the Yankees don’t sign Juan Soto, I’m more than okay with a combination of signing either Hernandez or Santander, and then trading for a Jake McCarthy. Teoscar in left field, Jake McCarthy in center field, and Aaron Judge in right field has me somewhat excited, but if they do make those moves, they have to sign big fish at other positions.

Filling out the Rest of the Team

First Base: Sign Christian Walker to a three-year deal worth $60M

Every Yankee fan has had Christian Walker’s name circled all off-season, and it makes all the sense in the world. He plays excellent defense and hits home runs. Not much else to say other than he’s the perfect fit, whether they sign Juan Soto or not. I can understand going after Pete Alonso, but he’ll be so much more expensive, and I’d rather spread the wealth among other members of the team.

Starting Pitcher: Sign Blake Snell to a five year deal worth $125M

I want pure domination. When Snell is on, few pitchers in Major League Baseball are better. Max Fried and Corbin Burnes are awesome, but they’ll likely command a higher price tag. When all three pitchers are at their best, Snell can be just as lethal from the left side.

Snell is a proven playoff-performer and has ties to the AL East. He’s as good as it gets when he’s healthy, and the Yankees have enough depth on the starting pitching side to whether the load during the regular season if he’s on the shelf. I want the ace-upside of Snell during the regular season and postseason, and I think he’s an excellent fit.

Second Base: Sign Ha-Seong Kim to a five year deal worth $60M

Kim is one of the better defensive shortstops in the league, and he likely wants to sign with a team to play shortstop. Maybe, just maybe, he’d be interested in creating a dynamic up-the-middle defensive duo with Anthony Volpe if the price is right.

Kim does all the little things that a championship team needs. He’s an excellent defender and base runner, and he walks almost as much as he strikes out. He likely won’t hit more than 15 home runs in a season, but he could steal 40 bases. He’ll be 29 years old next year and has plenty of juice left to offer a team. I would love to see him in pinstripes, and I think he’d become a fan favorite quickly, as he did in San Diego.

Bullpen: Brian Cashman, go to work

I think Yankees GM Brian Cashman does an excellent job in creating a bullpen. Yankee fans have mixed feelings about Clay Holmes, but we have to remember the Yankees got him for nothing. I have faith that Cashman will make the right moves in this bullpen, whether that be combing through the laundry list of free agents, or making trades as he often does.

The Juan Soto-less 2025 Yankees

Here’s what the Opening Day lineup could look like if everything works out. In this scenario, the Yankees would spend about $300M this offseason, about half of what Soto is expecting in his deal.

I like this lineup a lot. It’s balanced with power and speed, and it’s a much better defensive unit than last year. Jasson Dominguez is likely to be in this lineup instead of McCarthy, but I put McCarthy there just so everyone can see what it would look like if Dominguez isn’t ready for a starting role right out of the gate.

Rodon as the number three makes me feel a lot better about this rotation. A playoff duo of Cole and Snell is beyond elite, and Rodon’s value as a three starter is much higher. For the fourth spot in a playoff rotation is anyone’s guess, but my hope is Gil and Schmidt take a bigger leap this year.

The End Result

This exercise made me feel better. There is light at the end of the tunnel without Juan Soto, and it’s much cheaper. The Yankees could surely sign other free agents if they do get Soto, but I’m afraid it may be Christian Walker, and some under the radar moves.

The Yankees definitely have their work cut out for them if they lose Soto, but I ask you, Yankee fans, after reading through the moves, are you okay with letting Soto walk if the asking price is over $600M if this is the result?