Would the Yankees Let Gerrit Cole Walk to Keep Juan Soto?

Back in August, we published an article that you can read below breaking down a hypothetical scenario surrounding the New York Yankees’ two highest-price free agents set to hit the market, Juan Soto and Gerrit Cole.

At the time, it was not guaranteed that Cole would be joining Soto in free agency, as had no idea if he would finish the season healthy and exercise the opt-out in his contract.

Considering how well Cole pitched throughout the playoffs, especially in the World Series, it seems like the 2023 AL Cy Young has not skipped a beat, and is worth every penny of the $36 million salary he gets paid annually to lead the Yankees rotation.

Still owed $144 million over the next four years, Cole could have happily opted into the deal, ensuring that he remained a Yankee for the foreseeable future.

An interesting clause in his contract made it worthwhile for Cole to exercise that option, because he will either become a free agent (where there is a good chance he can at least match his current deal), or the Yankees can trigger their end of an opt-in, where they guarantee a fifth-year on his deal to keep him in pinstripes without letting him test the open waters of free agency.

Assuming Cole wants to remain a Yankee, which feels like a pretty safe assumption, Scott Boras is making the bet on behalf of his client that New York will simply opt into the deal, bringing the total deal from $144 million to $180 million over the next five years. This would take the initial guaranteed deal of nine years, $326 million, and bring the total deal to 10 years, $360 million.

Last year, Yoshinobu Yamamoto surpassed Cole for the largest contract in MLB history, before he even threw a pitch in MLB, when he signed a 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers. The Yankees were in the bidding for Yamamoto and were thought to have balked at the idea of anyone getting paid more than their ace Cole.

Now the Cashman and the Yankees are faced with the decision of whether or not to opt into another year of that deal, where they would keep Cole on their books through 2029, when he would be 39 years old.

Will the Yankees Opt In With Ease?

Watching Gerrit Cole on the biggest stage in the World Series, it certainly seems like a fair characterization to say that even at 34 years old, there is no one the Yankees would rather hand the ball to for a big game than Cole.

Cole pitched to a 3.14 ERA in 17 regular season starts and then cut that down to a 2.17 ERA in five starts this October. While the results were still there for Cole, you can’t ignore the fact that he wasn’t available for most of the first half of the season due to an arm injury.

The recently turned 34-year-old ended the season healthy, so there is no reason to assume future injury, other than the mileage on Cole’s arm and the decline that can take place as a pitcher works deeper into their 30s.

These days, pitchers are finding success later and later in their careers, and there is no reason that Cole can’t continue to pitch at an ace level for another five years. With that said the Yankees front office would not be doing their due diligence if they did not at least consider the long-term implications of opting into this deal.

Most likely the pros far outweigh the cons, and you keep one of the most vocal leaders of your clubhouse and the ace of your staff for the next half-decade.

In a lot of ways, that is a no-brainer, as there is surely at least one other team on the market that would consider giving Cole that same five-year,$180 million contract if he actually hit free agency.

On the other hand, the Yankees might decide that the money going toward Cole would be better spent on signing another one of their impending free agents, Juan Soto. This would be a massive gamble from the sure thing of opting into Cole’s deal, especially considering the fact that Soto and Cole share an agent in Scott Boras.

The Yankees are a less attractive free-agent destination for Soto if there is no Cole, but money talks and if they were committing to matching any offer on their 26-year-old superstar right fielder, and the Cole money allowed them to do it, that could be money well-spent.

When I wrote the original article you can read below, I was exploring those dynamics as a hypothetical scenario, which is now at the forefront with the Cole news.

Any minute now, we could get the report that the Yankees have opted into the deal, as always planned. But if you were a fly on the wall of Brian Cashman’s office on Saturday night, you’d have to think the possibility of freeing up $144 million of future payroll was at least briefly considered when Cole opted out of his deal.

Original Article Published on August 28th, 2024

The last thing the New York Yankees, or their fans, want to think about right now is Juan Soto’s impending free agency. The Yankees have hit the stretch run of the season, and are playing some great baseball behind Soto and MVP-favorite Aaron Judge.

With 29 games left to play apiece, the Yankees hold a one-game lead over the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East. The division, and most likely a first round bye, hang in the balance for the Yankees, as they look to capitalize on having the best duo in Major League Baseball.

While there are a lot of great storylines to follow with this Yankees team, none is more fascinating than Soto’s impending free agency, and whether they can win a World Series as the ultimate pitch to keep him in the Bronx.

Regardless of what happens though, Soto’s name is going to dominate all discussion this offseason in a similar way as we saw with Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter. Those speculations began early on Tuesday, in Jeff Passan’s early free agent preview for ESPN.

With what is already being described as a bidding war that starts at $500 million, Soto is going to cost a lot of money to retain in free agency. For the Yankees to afford keeping him and Judge in the same lineup, could another star player become the casualty?

Let’s explore what we learned from Passan, but also if Soto’s free agency can play a role in whether Gerrit Cole remains with the Yankees beyond the 2024 season.

What Was Reported By Jeff Passan on Juan Soto

Jeff Passan is one of baseball’s preeminent insiders, so anytime he writes a free agent preview, the information inside is always of interest.

This was more of a notebook on how Passan views the market, but his preview is not just based on his own perspective. Passan has conversations with players, coaches, agents, executives and even owners, getting all kinds of perspectives on the latest in the industry.

As it relates to Soto, Passan dropped a bomb to start off his free agent preview:

At the end of the day, high-ranking front office and ownership-level sources believe the winter for Soto is going to play out like this: Yankees vs. Mets.

Behemoth vs. behemoth.

The most enthralling free agency battle imaginable.

Now Passan is not necessarily connecting dots on a story that hasn’t already been one of the subplots of the 2024 season. This has been a conversation on New York Spots talk radio, and I have talked about it myself plenty on my podcast, Locked On Mets.

Steve Cohen has the deepest pockets in the sport, and Soto is the best player in free agency.

The fit is obvious, and has been long before Soto became a Yankee. Still, seeing Passan write about this coming from “high-ranking front office and ownership-level sources” feels a bit more significant.

Even more so, Passan gets a quote from Mets star shortstop Francisco Lindor, openly discussing the possibility of Soto changing boroughs in the offseason.

“When it comes to the outfielder from across our borough,” New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor said, “he’s having a fantastic year and I hope he goes out there and breaks every record out there when it comes to getting paid. If it’s with us, it’ll be fantastic. He’ll help us a lot.

For Lindor to make a public comment on this is rather bold, which could foreshadow how aggressively the Mets will pursue him in free agency. If the Mets put an offer well north of $500 million on the table, can the Yankees really match it with both Judge and Cole on the payroll?

How Does Gerrit Cole Factor in on Juan Soto?

Further down in Passan’s free agent preview, he also talks about Yankees ace Gerrit Cole as another impending free agent.

Cole also figures into this winter’s free agency with a strong expectation that he will opt out of the final four years and $144 million of his nine-year, $324 million contract with the New York Yankees.

Passan continues by mentioning the interesting clause in Cole’s contract, where if he opts out of his contract, the Yankees have an option they can trigger where they keep their ace off the market by guaranteeing a 10th-year on the original deal at $36 million for the 2029 season.

Coming off last season, the idea that the Yankees would not exercise that 10th-year option would have been crazy. Cole has lived up to every bit of that $324 million deal, particularly when he won the AL Cy Young last season.

Across the first four years of Cole’s tenure with the Yankees, he made every start, eclipsing 200 innings in each of the last two full season. This year, however, Cole missed the first few months of the season with an injured UCL.

He has returned off the injured list and has largely looked like the same old Cole, pitching to a 3.86 ERA in 12 starts, with 69 strikeouts in 63 innings pitched. He is still averaging 96 MPH on his fastball, and looks to be getting stronger for the stretch run.

With all of that said, are we sure the Yankees would want to opt-in to paying Cole $180 million over the next five years?

On the surface, it still feels like a no-brainer to keep Cole, who has showed no signs of slowing down when on the mound. But he will turn 34 years old on September 8th, and is likely to finish this season with a career-low in innings pitched (2020 excluded).

The Yankees won a lot of games without Cole this season, and might decide to reallocate those resources to Soto if they are really worried about having enough room under the luxury tax in the future.

Judge makes $40 million per season, and is still under contract for seven years beyond this season. Carlos Rodon is making $27 million per season for another four years, and Giancarlo Stanton still has three years, and $66 million left on his deal.

Anthony Rizzo has a $17 million club option the Yankees are not going to pick up, but the combination of Judge, Cole, Rodon, Stanton, Marcus Stroman, and DJ LeMahieu is already $140 million in 2025.

Factor in Aaron Hicks’ retained $10 million luxury tax hit and you clear $150 million before you get to Soto, other free agents, and your arbitration-eligible players.

If Soto signed a 13-year, $600 million contract (which is not out of the question), his luxury tax hit would be just over $46 million per season. Having to build your payroll around $86+ million per season in Soto and Judge is a challenge the Yankees would likely welcome.

Throw in Cole’s $36 million luxury tax hit, and suddenly you are talking about three players costing north of $120 million. Who knows what holds for MLB in the next CBA, but the agreed upon Competitive Balance Tax Threshold in 2025 is $241 million. In 2026 it is $244 million.

Having half of the luxury tax tied to three players would make things very hard on the Yankees when it comes to building out future rosters, especially with some of the money they already have on the books.

Combine Soto, Judge, Cole, Rodon and Stanton, and the Yankees would have a luxury tax payroll of $171 million on five players alone for the next three seasons. Rodon and Stanton would eventually come off the books, as would Cole after five years.

Still, you are basically locking yourself into this core, where pursuing other top free agents would become very difficult.

The Yankees got by earlier this season with a rotation that included Rodon, Stroman, Nestor Cortes, Clark Schmidt, and rookie phenom Luis Gil.

In a vacuum, it would be a lot easier for the Yankees to replace Cole than it would be for them to replace Soto. There is far more risk with Cole, just by nature of him being a pitcher, but even more so when factoring in his age and injury this season.

If a Yankees fan had to chose one over the other, it would be pretty interesting to see which they would pick. Would it be the ace who has worn pinstripes for half a decade, or the newfound superstar, who has played the modern-day Gehrig to Judge’s Ruth?

Both is the answer all fans would prefer, but we will have to wait until this winter to find out how the Yankees will approach free agency with their two stars. The decision on Cole will come first, and a bird and hand might be the what leads them to accept the option regardless.

The disaster scenario for the Yankees would be letting Cole hit the market to save money for Soto, only to watch them both leave in free agency.

For the Yankees, right now they have all three of Cole, Judge and Soto healthy and ready for a playoff push, so that is what they would like to focus on. Once we do get to the offseason though, there will be a lot of tough decisions ahead for baseball’s most interesting team.