The Royals Have More Questions Than Answers Now and Into the Future

On October 1 of 2023, Zack Greinke took the mound one final time. A five-inning, one-run performance ultimately leading to a win in front of the Kansas City Royals faithful closing out the season, and for Greinke a career, with smiles in Kansas City. Smiles that had to be dusted off and practiced after rarely seeing the summer sun in route to a 56-106 season.

What looked like a team years from contention entered 2024 with a revamped rotation lead by free agent additions Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha paired with an emerging star in lefty Cole Ragans, who was added at the deadline less than a year prior.

Instead of incrementally improving year by year like most 56-win teams, the Royals exploded to a shocking 86-76 record earning a playoff berth and the attention of the baseball world. A top tier pitching staff, enough offense to keep them in games, and a superstar in Bobby Witt Jr. showed that this was a team on the rise.

However, 2025 was a slight step back finishing 82-80 but the emergence of Maikel Garcia, Noah Cameron, Carter Jensen, Jac Caglianone, and Vinnie Pasquantino gave fans hope heading into 2026.

Well, that hope has not been building as one would expect. A 34-48 record currently slots the Royals at the bottom of the AL Central. They are 22nd in wRC+ and home runs, 18th in runs scored, and 19th in OPS. An offense that is not completely floundering, but would need a a top third pitching staff to lift them.

Bad news: the Royals pitching staff is not in the top third of the league. The rank in the 20s for most pitching categories leaving the team as a whole around the bottom third of the league. A group they have been familiar with more times than not.

As the calendar approaches July, I think it is safe to say the season has been a disappointment and more likely than not will end in disappointment. Each year is another data point, more information, more proof, and for the Royals, there are more questions than answers moving forward.

Questions Surrounding the Royals Future

What I am about to say is not meant to be a negative bashing of this team or disbelief in what they could become. They are simply questions that vary in level of concern from person to person. However, I do think it is fair to pinpoint these as something to monitor into the future.

To me, the biggest concern has been the step back that Garcia and Pasquantino have taken in 2026. After both posting career years in 2025, Garcia as reverted back to a under 100 wRC+ after posting a 121 wRC+ in 2025 and Pasquantino (81 wRC+) sits comfortable below 100 for the first time in his career.

The Royals offense does not have the depth to allow for two of their better hitters to stump to this extent. Nick Loftin has been a fun surprise but outside of the top three of Jensen, Witt, and Caglianone, the Royals are mostly made up of below-average hitters. Salvador Perez, unfortunately, looks like nothing is left in the tank making the need for Pasquantino and Garcia to perform that much more important.

Are these players just in a slump or are they showing their true limitations?

Garcia’s defense and speed make stomaching the dip easier. For Pasquantino, if he’s not hitting he’s a problem. Launching 32 home runs last year looked like a breakout but the seasons bordering 2025 have been underwhelming and filled with injuries. In fact, both Pasquantino and Garcia are currently on the injured list which brings me to my next concern.

Shifting Over to the Pitching

Can Ragans stay healthy? His 3.14 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 2024 put him on the map as one of the best young lefties in the game. Injuries hit in 2025 limiting him to 13 starts and after eight starts this season and elbow injury once again leaves his season in question.

Lugo and Wacha have stabilized the rotation but both are north of 35 years old with contracts expiring after next season (club options for ’28). Cameron is a nice piece and should bee in the rotation for years to come. Kris Bubic has been an answer at times but his injury history and expiring contract leave his future with the Royals in question.

But the Royals need a true ace. Someone who can take the ball in a playoff series and give the Royals an edge simply by being on the mound. Ragans is the best bet to be that for Kansas City but staying on the mound has been a major concern.

Well, how about prospects that could come up and help? That, too, is a question. Most outlets have the Royals farm system in the bottom third of the league which has been the case for the past few seasons. According to MLB Pipeline’s top 10 system prospects, six are under 20 and a ways away from helping. The only two top 100 prospects in Just Baseball’s most recent update are 18 year-old pitcher Kendry Chourio (No. 73) and 19 year-old shortstop Josh Hammond (No. 76).

Prospects change constantly and emerge quickly so it is possible someone could help sooner than later. But where it stands today it does not look good. Not only does this raise concerns on internal help but also an ability to pull off a trade using high-end prospects to bring back major league talent, leading to my next question.

How much do you trust this organization with trading for major league talent? The trade for Ragans, based on talent alone, was a home run. No doubt about it. But the other trades in recent memory have not been what you would hope for.

Jonathan India has been a negative fWAR player since joining the Royals. So has Isaac Collins, who the Brewers moved after posting a 122 wRC+ as a rookie. Lucas Erceg was a major addition at the time and currently can’t throw a strike leading to a 5.16 ERA. Matt Strahm, Steven Cruz, and John Schreiber were brought in to boost the bullpen and have all been negative fWAR pitchers.

Laying out each question and concern helps paint the entire picture of what isn’t going well but we could make this simpler. Be honest, how do you feel about the Royals future? What is your confidence level in the operation from top down, fans? How often do you feel pressure about the way the team will looks in Bobby Witt Jr.’s prime years?

Even with concerns, there’s still positive development to give fans hope.

Not Everything Is Bad

Okay, enough negative. Let’s focus on some positive developments in Kansas City. We will start with the most important piece of the organization in Bobby Witt Jr. A 26 year-old proven superstar who already has two 30/30 seasons, a 10 fWAR year, and 115 home runs with 176 stolen bases at 26 years old.

A phenomenal defender at an important position with an extremely high baseline that you can count on year in and year out. A “down year” still consist of a near .300 average, 20+ home runs, 30+ stolen bases. The type of foundation piece the Royals can build around for years to come. Most importantly, he’s under contract.

So often we see smaller market teams draft these level of players only for them to land elsewhere after arbitration. Kansas City was smart to thrown nearly $300 million at Witt, keeping him through, at most, 2037. He does have an opt-out after 2030, but that’s six seasons away so for now he’s the heartbeat of the Royals future.

Finding the pieces to build around Witt will start with the draft. While the Royals will spend a little bit of money from time to time the way they will truly build a contender is through drafting and developing. We are already seeing two players in particular blossom into impact bats.

Caglianone struggled as a rookie in 2025 but has really started to show the tools that made him the sixth overall pick. Through 76 games he’s slashing .268/.339/.483 with 14 home runs and a 125 wRC+. After struggling in May something has clicked in June where Caglianone has 9 home runs and a 1.114 OPS across 94 at-bats.

The swing and miss and chasing outside of the zone will likely always be less than ideal but when you punish baseballs the way Caglianone does it leaves more room for error. The Royals have a power bat and run producer that gives them another high ceiling player.

They also have an answer for Salvador Perez’s soon to be departure. Carter Jensen looked great in a small sample last season and has rolled that into a 100 wRC+ with 11 home runs this year. A hot start to the season was cooled off by a slow May but Jensen has rebounded in June to the tune of an .844 OPS.

Catchers tend to take longer to develop and at 22 years old I’d say Jensen is ahead of the curve. Like Caglianone, the swing and miss can be a concern but the exit velocities can reason for hope that even more power is in his bat once he starts lifting the ball a little more. Even if Jensen is better suited as a DH, the Royals have Blake Mitchell, their top prospect, as another option behind the plate.

Another positive is the Royals contract situation. As mentioned before, Witt is here for the long-term and that’s the most important. But, the Royals do not have any bad contracts that could weigh them down.

Lugo and Wacha will clear $40 million off the books after next season. Lugo will be nearing 38 years old and Wacha 36. Although productive right now, you don’t see many players keep that production at that age. Let’s say they do. Good news, they each come with club options giving the Royals a chance to make the decision on how their money is allocated.

Perez will clear $12 million after 2027 while Strahm, Lane Thomas, India, Bubic, and Schreiber will clear over $30 million after this season. Kansas City could also get out of $11 million by declining Carlos Estevez’s club option.

The Royals will have some money and playing time available to free agents. Whether they sign them, or the right ones, is to be determined.

Final Thoughts

Kansas City is not a complete dumpster fire. They don’t have an aging core tied up to long term deals like San Diego and they aren’t void of talent like the Rockies. A young group of hitters hitting their stride, a couple of players who could bounce back, and freed up money could correct their course quickly.

However, they need to figure out their pitching and stop falling in love with slightly below average hitters. If they do not find more arms from their farm system and continue to rely on mid-tier free agents to build out a bullpen they could be in trouble.

You have Bobby Witt Jr. in his prime. If there’s ever a time to operate outside of your norm and become more aggressive, it’s now.