How Did We Do Predicting the 2024 MLB All-Star Starters?

A little over a week ago, the Just Baseball staff got together and submitted our choices for who we thought should start the 2024 MLB All-Star Game. On Wednesday evening, MLB officially announced the rosters and, as it turns out, we weren’t all that far off.

Leading the National League in total votes was Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies. In his first full year as a first baseman, the two-time MVP has been outstanding. We started things off on the right foot, as our staff predicted he’d be the one to start at first for the NL.

Over in the American League, the leading vote-getter was Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees. Again, we picked him, too. His inclusion in our predictions was a freebie, as the 6-foot-7 annihilator of baseballs was a shoo-in for this one. Judge leads the AL in doubles and tops the majors in home runs, RBI, OBP, SLG, OPS and total bases.

Since Judge and Harper received the most fan votes in Phase 1 of the voting, they were already penciled in. On Wednesday, we found out who was joining them.

All told, 10 teams are represented in the starting lineups. The Phillies had a total of three player crack the All-Star Game’s starting lineup, while the Orioles, Yankees, Astros, Guardians, Brewers and Padres each had two. Beyond them, the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Diamondbacks each had one.

Let’s compare our picks versus the players who actually made the cut.

2024 MLB All-Star Starters: How Did Our Predictions Fare?

American League

Catcher

Just Baseball: Adley Rutschman

MLB: Adley Rutschman

Rutschman topped the charts all around. He beat out Salvador Perez and has now made his second consecutive All-Star Game appearance. Rutschman, 26, is having a fine season, but his inclusion in this is a popularity choice more than anything. He is one of the top backstops in baseball and is sure to be an annual member of these rosters year after year, but he is 10th in wRC+ (min. 100 PA) amongst AL catchers.

First Base

JB: Josh Naylor

MLB: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

One of the few differences we found between our ballots and the fans’ was at first base in the AL. We had tabbed Josh Naylor as the starter at the position, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. took home the honors. Ryan Mountcastle was the runner-up, per MLB.com, but there wasn’t really a right or wrong answer to this one. Guerrero leads the trio in wRC+, batting average, OBP and BB%.

Second Base

JB: Jose Altuve

MLB: Jose Altuve

For the ninth time in his Hall of Fame career, Altuve is an All-Star. The 14-year veteran is hitting .306 with a 132 OPS+ through 84 games and is still showing no real signs of slowing down. At just 34-years old, it still feels like there are many more years of him being one of the premier talents in this game. Marcus Semien finished runner-up to him in the voting, but there was no way Altuve wasn’t getting the nod.

Third Base

JB: Jose Ramirez

MLB: Jose Ramirez

Ramirez is the best third baseman in the AL, so there was no real competition here. He leads the way (min. 100 PA) in home runs, runs scored, RBI, average, SLG, wRC+ and fWAR, and is now a six-time All-Star. The switch-hitter has never won an MVP but he’s rather quietly making a case for one this year, despite the fact that the competition is fierce.

Shortstop

JB: Gunnar Henderson

MLB: Gunnar Henderson

Henderson is turning himself into one of the more popular players in baseball, so this spot has always been his to lose. A resurgent Carlos Correa and equally exciting Bobby Witt Jr., alongside an always popular Corey Seager and Anthony Volpe, make this a deep position; but Henderson is the top dog here. He leads AL shortstops in home runs, RBI, runs scored, SLG, wRC+ and fWAR.

Outfield

JB: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker

MLB: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Steven Kwan

Since Judge was the top vote-getter in Phase 1, he automatically got locked in. There simply aren’t enough words to properly explain how dominant he’s been. We’re looking at easily the best player in baseball right now and it’s not really close.

Soto, Judge’s teammate, has been on fire since coming over to the Yanks. He’s second, behind Judge, in the AL in wRC+ (183) and unsurprisingly leads the majors in walks and walk-percentage. He’s got 20 home runs and 60 RBI through 84 games, too, which certainly helps his case.

While we went with Tucker, Kwan took home the popularity vote. Between the two, Kwan only leads Tucker in hits, average and OBP. Otherwise, Tucker has him beat in most other offensive categories, per Baseball Reference.

Tucker and Anthony Santander are the two runners-up in MLB’s fan vote.

Designated Hitter

JB: Yordan Alvarez

MLB: Yordan Alvarez

Alvarez remains a dangerous hitter and is arguably the best power-hitting lefty in all of baseball. He’s made his third consecutive All-Star Game, thanks to his 19 home runs and 49 RBI through 83 games, while also boasting a batting average over .300. He is a complete hitter who doesn’t even need to play a position on the field to provide extra value; his bat already carries all the value.

National League

Catcher

Just Baseball: William Contreras

MLB: William Contreras

Since coming over to the Brewers last year, Contreras has turned himself into one of the top offensive catchers in the game. He’s started off the current campaign on a tear, driving in 51 runs with an .804 OPS and 125 OPS+ through 84 games. He beat out the likes of J.T. Realmuto and Will Smith, both of whom are wildly popular and having strong seasons of their own.

First Base

JB: Bryce Harper

MLB: Bryce Harper

Like Judge, Harper got the most votes in Phase 1 and was locked in immediately. He’s tied for tops in the NL amongst first basemen (min. 100 PA) in home runs and batting average. He’s in sole possession of first-place in SLG, wRC+ and fWAR, too. Freddie Freeman, Christian Walker and Pete Alonso would’ve been contenders if Harper didn’t get auto-locked in. They should both still make the cut as reserves.

Second Base

JB: Ketel Marte

MLB: Ketel Marte

For the second time in his 10-year career, Marte has secured a starting spot in the All-Star Game. The switch-hitter is one of the best second basemen in the NL, especially after Mookie Betts made the transition to full-time shortstop, and he’s hitting like it. In 83 games, he has 38 extra-base hits with 50 runs driven in and 58 more scored. Luis Arraez should still make the roster, but he was the top runner-up, according to MLB.

Third Base

JB: Alec Bohm

MLB: Alec Bohm

Our staff was pretty spot on in this thing, hey? Bohm will combine with his infield-corner mate Harper to start the All-Star Game. It’s Bohm’s first career selection and will likely not be his last. The burly right-hander leads the majors with 28 doubles and also tops the NL in RBI with 70. He’s on pace to set career-highs in nearly every single offensive category and beat Padres third baseman Manny Machado by what was likely a rather large margin.

Shortstop

JB: Mookie Betts

MLB: Trea Turner

Turner gives the Phillies a third infielder in the starting lineup, more than any other club. Betts finished runner-up, but he likely lost a lot of support after sustaining a broken wrist that’ll keep him on the shelf for a while. That doesn’t mean that Turner wasn’t deserving, though. The 10-year veteran hasn’t been hitting for much power this year, but he remains a lethal contact hitter and speedster on the bases. In 47 games, he has 19 extra-base hits and 10 stolen bases (11 tries) with a .342 average and .875 OPS.

Outfield

JB: Jurickson Profar, Teoscar Hernandez, Fernando Tatis Jr.

MLB: Jurickson Profar, Christian Yelich, Fernando Tatis Jr.

Two of out three isn’t too bad! Yelich, 32, is in the midst of an incredible bounce-back campaign for the Brewers, hitting for an NL-leading .333 average through 61 games. His bill of health still hasn’t been fully clean, but he’s a run-producing machine when he’s playing and has given the Brewers a jolt whenever he’s in the lineup.

Profar has been a nice feel-good story for the Padres this year. He took a long time to deliver on his top prospect-hype from over a decade ago, but he’s finally arrived. Profar has played in every single game this year and leads the NL in OBP with a smooth .407 mark. The switch-hitter is more than deserving of this honor.

Tatis, a superstar whose reputation has been slightly hurt by injuries and a PED suspension, seems to be all the way back. The five-year veteran has made the All-Star Game for the second time and has been electric at the plate. In 80 games, he’s got 14 home runs and an .821 OPS and he’s looking more and more like his 2020 and 2021 self as time goes on.

MLB’s runners-up include Hernandez, Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos, even more Phillies. Hernandez has taken the Dodgers by storm this year, hitting 19 home runs in 85 games, so he’ll certainly make the cut as a reserve.

Designated Hitter

JB: Shohei Ohtani

MLB: Shohei Ohtani

Simply put, Ohtani is the single most popular player in all of baseball and you either voted for him to start the All-Star Game, or you’re wrong. The tighter race would’ve been between the runner-up, who wound up being Kyle Schwarber while we picked Marcell Ozuna. Both sluggers have had fine seasons, but neither are Ohtani.

Even though Ohtani isn’t pitching this year, he remains the best of the best. In 84 contests, he has an NL-leading 27 home runs, .642 SLG, 1.042 OPS and 193 OPS+. He’s near the top of the charts in almost every category and is continuing on a truly one-of-a-kind pace.