Five Reasons Why the Red Sox Can Still Make a Playoff Push

The 2026 Boston Red Sox have been quite a surprise across baseball, and not for the better.

While they are 9-2 in their last 11 games, the team still finds itself near the bottom of the AL East standings with a 41-48 record, 12 games back of the first-place Tampa Bay Rays and four games back of a playoff spot.

With an offseason that included the additions of first baseman Willson Contreras, third baseman Caleb Durbin, and starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez, the Red Sox were expected to be a major contender in the American League, with hopes of possibly reaching the World Series.

While the offense lacked power on paper, the rotation was expected to be this team’s calling card, featuring last year’s American League Cy Young Award runner up in Garrett Crochet, along with budding arms in Payton Tolle and Connelly Early.

Unfortunately, many factors have gotten in the way of their pursuit for a playoff spot. Those include the overall lack of offensive production, inconsistent play at Fenway Park, and injuries to key figures, including Crochet and last year’s rookie phenom, outfielder Roman Anthony.

As a result, the team fired longtime manager Alex Cora. They’ve had to play catch up with the rest of the league, with Chad Tracy taking over as the interim manger in an attempt to turn the season around.

All of these issues have culminated in the Red Sox sporting the sixth-worst record in the American League with the fanbase losing faith that this team can compete for a playoff spot.

However, in the game of baseball, anything can happen, and that still rings true for the Red Sox.

With 73 regular season games remaining, FanGraphs gives Boston a 23% chance to make the playoffs. A lot would have to go right, but the team still has a fighting chance to achieve their ultimate goal of playing in October. Here are five reasons why fans must continue to believe.

Stats were taken prior to play on July 8.

1. The Starting Pitching Remains the Engine

Going into the season, the starting rotation was expected to be the strength of this Red Sox team, and that still remains the case to this point in the season. That said, the people who are currently anchoring it has changed from when they broke camp to Cincinnati back at the end of March.

Crochet, who pitched a season-high 205.1 innings in his Cy Young runner-up campaign last year, described feeling a bit of a “hangover” from his workload last year. After pitching to an unusual 6.30 ERA and -0.6 bWAR in six starts to begin this year, injuries started to pile up. He is currently dealing with fatigue and shoulder and lat discomfort that has sidelined him since the end of April.

Another key figure that was supposed to help strengthen the rotation was right-handed pitcher Brayan Bello. However, after a breakout 2025 campaign in which the right-hander pitched to a 3.35 ERA across 29 games (28 starts) and 166.2 innings of work, he too would suffer a major drop off this season.

Across 12 games (eight starts), Bello pitched to the tune of a 2-6 record with a 6.34 ERA and 44 strikeouts across 61 innings. With a -1.4 bWAR with Boston, Bello was optioned to Triple-A Worcester at the beginning of June with no signs of a call-up any time soon.

Despite losing the two pillars that helped anchor the Red Sox to an 89-win season last year, many new faces have stepped up in their place throughout the 2026 season, starting with the two newest additions this past offseason in Gray and Suarez.

Acquired by the St. Louis Cardinals in a three-player trade, Gray has found himself having a career resurgence at 36-years old. Across 16 starts and 89.2 innings, he has pitched to the tune of an AL-leading 10 wins with a 2.61 ERA and 82 strikeouts.

Likewise, Suarez has lived up to the hype and expectations as the “replacement” for losing Alex Bregman to the Chicago Cubs, signing a five year, $130 million contract with the Red Sox. Named an All-Star for the second time of his career this season, Suarez is pitching to a 4-3 record with a 3.15 ERA and 97 strikeouts across 91.1 innings and 17 starts, leading to a 1.5 bWAR.

Both veterans each carry FIPs under 2.75 and have locked down the top of the rotation. Not to mention the contributions the Red Sox have received from former top prospects Connelly Early and Payton Tolle, who each sport ERAs under 3.50 this season.

The Red Sox unfortunately have faced some bad luck with more injuries, as Early recently hit the injured list with posterior elbow inflammation, and Suarez may soon follow after he left his most recent start against the Angels with left adductor groin tightness.

However, even with the ace of the team on the shelf for most of the season, the rotation has shown that it’s one of the best when healthy. At one point, Boston’s rotation rattled off 12 straight games with a quality start, the longest streak in franchise history since 1988.

In its current state, this rotation is still strong. But if they can get some names back from the injured list, this rotation has what it takes to carry this team to October.

2. They Might Just Be a Bat or Two Away

The biggest reason the Red Sox have struggled in 2026 is due to their uninspiring offense. Currently, they rank 15th in all of baseball in batting average (.244) and 23rd in slugging percentage (.388) and OPS (.702). On top of all that, they have struggled mightily playing at home in Fenway Park and utilizing the quirky dimensions to their offense, as they have just a 17-27 record playing at home.

Despite many players taking a step back offensively, with five of their nine current starters boasting an OPS under .700, there are some pieces the team can build around at the trade deadline in hopes of making a second-half run.

It starts with the Red Sox’s primary cleanup hitter, Willson Contreras. Also acquired in a trade with the Cardinals over the offseason, he is on pace to have the best offensive season of his career.

In 87 games, the former catcher turned first baseman is slashing .287/.381/.545 with a .926 OPS (161 OPS+), 89 hits, 20 home runs, and 61 RBIs. His 3.7 bWAR is already his best single-season number since 2021, when he collected 4.2 bWAR in 128 games.

The first base position is loaded in the American League, with Nick Kurtz and Ben Rice stealing the headlines. But make no mistake, Contreras belongs in that conversation this season. He is the threat in the Red Sox lineup and has shown zero signs of slowing down in the second half.

While Contreras is the engine, a lot of his success has to do with the two players hitting right in front of him: Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu. The pair has been known for its defense, but this year, their bats have been garnering quite of bit of attention as well.

While it was a slow start offensively to his big-league career, Rafaela has improved year by year, putting t it all together in 2026.

Across 85 games, he is hitting .284/.332/.441 with a .773 OPS, 91 hits, seven home runs, and 38 RBIs, all while continuing to play elite defense in center field. His improvement on the offensive side has led to a 119 OPS+, and his 3.9 bWAR leads the team.

Next to Rafaela in the outfield stands Abreu, and he has continued being a steady presence in the Red Sox lineup. While he may not have had the “breakout” season many expected him too, he is still very much playing at a high level in 87 games so far.

Abreu is batting .261/.332/.423 with a .756 OPS, 87 hits, 10 home runs, and 41 RBIs. He too has continued to shine defensively in right field, leading to 3.1 bWAR that ranks third on the team.

The trio has remained the steady presence within the starting nine, but the team has also enjoyed glimpses of hot hitting from other players throughout the season.

Though he struggled mightily in June, Jarren Duran had one of the best months of his career in May with nine home runs and an .879 OPS. Durbin had a hot month of June, swatting six home runs and hitting to a .964 OPS during that stretch. And Anthony Seigler has been a pleasant surprised since getting called up, hitting .298/.375/.456 across 17 games.

Overall, there are quite a few building blocks in the lineup, but it is far from a finished product. That said, one or two more bats in the order could make all of the difference for this team and how they are pitched to.

Outfielders Taylor Ward and Jo Adell, second baseman Luis Arraez, and shortstop CJ Abrams all appear to be available at the deadline, so if the Red Sox truly believe they have a chance to play deep in October, there are plenty of pieces to go after.

3. D-D-Defense!

One area that chief baseball officer Craig Breslow looked to fix over the offseason was the team’s defense, particularly in the infield. In 2025, they had a collective .980 fielding percentage, which ranked as the worst in all of baseball.

With that in mind, Breslow swung the trades for both Contreras and Durbin, and while they were regarded as solid defenders prior to joining the team, they seemingly have found a new gear in the process.

At first base, Contreras has been rock solid and provided defense the team has not seen at that position since the days of Mitch Moreland, as he currently has +2 defensive runs saved (DRS). Across the diamond at third, Durbin has an outstanding 10 DRS.

Shortstop and second base continue to be a revolving door. Marcelo Mayer playing both positions and registered 2 DRS at second and -4 DRS at shortstop, but with him on the shelf, there’s been no clear answer at either position.

Meanwhile, over in the outfield, all four of their primary outfielders in Duran, Anthony, Rafaela, and Abreu have established themselves as the best defensive unit possibly in all of baseball.

Rafaela and Abreu are not just playing as Gold Glovers but should be in consideration for the Platinum Glove Award when all is said and done. While already boasting strong DRS numbers, the pair has been elite in terms of outs above average (OAA), with Rafaela ranking in the 99th percentile with 11 and Abreu not too far behind in the 91st percentile with five of his own.

Finally, behind the dish, Carlos Narváez has struggled offensively this season, but he remains a stellar defender behind the plate.

The backstop ranks among the top in all of the defensive metrics at catcher, including the 96th percentile in blocks above average (8), 69th percentile in caught stealing above average (1), and 90th percentile in framing (4), while also providing high quality with his ABS challenges.

Overall, the Red Sox are one of the best defensive teams in MLB, ranking third across all 30 teams with 48 DRS, which is the best in all of the American League. The combination of great defense and strong pitching is a recipe for success come October.

4. A Favorable July Is Heading Their Way

July has treated the Red Sox well recently, as they used the month last year to cap off a 10-game win streak heading into the All-Star break, which helped catapult them to the playoffs for the first time in four seasons.

This July has started off the same way for the Red Sox, with a three-game sweep over the Angels. When looking at their scheduled opponents for the month, it is possible that lightning can strike twice.

In the midst of their longest road trip of the season, they have five more games to wrap up their first half of the season against the Chicago White Sox and New York Mets.

Following the break, they return to action with four games against the Tampa Bay Rays, three-game sets against the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays, and a four-game matchup against the Athletics.

Certainly, the Red Sox face some tough challenges with opponents like the White Sox and Rays, with the latter sweeping them in their previous matchup. However, there are weaker opponents scheduled, and the Red Sox need to pounce on those teams — including the pair of series out of the break against their division foes.

The Red Sox have an opportunity to make up some serious ground in the division out of the All-Star break. If they can inch their way back to .500 with some key victories against division opponents, it can motivate the team to officially become buyers rather than sellers at the deadline, and the additional pieces can only help the team as they move forward.

The opportunity is certainly there for the taking, but will the Red Sox take advantage?

5. The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals

It may be an odd connection, but the 2026 Red Sox have something in common with the St. Louis Cardinals team that wound up winning the 2006 World Series.

While they ultimately reached the mountaintop, the Cardinals struggled mightily in the regular season, and just like the Red Sox, found themselves with a 40-48 record 88 games into their season. Ultimately, they rallied the rest of the season, going 43-31, and finished with an 83-79, which was just enough to win the National League Central division.

They ultimately went on to beat the San Diego Padres in the National League Division Series, upset the heavily-favored New York Mets in the National League Championship Series, and defeated the Detroit Tigers in five games to win it all in 2006.

Additionally, for what it is worth, the 1973 Mets were also eight games under .500 at the beginning of August with a 43-51 record, but with a 39-28 surge, they too would win their division and the World Series over the then Oakland Athletics in seven games.

Now, is 82 to 83 wins enough to win a division, or even make it into the playoffs? Most likely not.

However, it does show that, despite the season feeling hopeless for Red Sox Nation, there is still a fighting chance they can put this thing all together and end the season where they hoped they would be.

That is not to say that the 2026 team is going to make the playoffs, because they very well could have a poor showing these next few weeks and ultimately decide to sell in order to replenish the farm system. However, in the game of baseball, anything can happen, and that logic still applies to the Red Sox with 73 games remaining in their schedule.

Overall, these next few weeks will make or break the season, and it all starts one game at a time.