Could the Athletics Be A Playoff Dark Horse in the AL West?

You’re forgiven if you didn’t know that the last time the Athletics made the postseason was back in the COVID-shortened 2020 season when they won the American League West. Since then, they’ve put together just one season of .500 or higher ball and have had three of the worst seasons from any club in recent memory.

The dreadful 2022 and 2023 campaigns were more than enough to cement the A’s as the laughingstock of the league. There’s no denying the fact that they were the worst of the bunch and were heading nowhere fast.

Pair this with the fact that there’s been uncertainty about where they’re going to call home for what feels like a decade now. No longer calling Oakland home feels wrong, but this is the world John Fisher has envisioned for his ballclub and it’s what we’ve got to live with.

Now, the A’s are preparing to play their home games at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, Calif. as part of a temporary relocation. This is where they’re going to call home until the 2028 season when they permanently move to Las Vegas.

Amidst all the relocation drama and issues with ownership, there’s been little to no reasons to be excited for the future of the A’s over the course of the past few years. However, the on-field product is slowly (very, very slowly…) starting to show some potential.

The A’s Could Be Underrated Playoff Contenders in 2025

It’s been so easy to write the A’s off for years, but their young core is coming together and showing what they’re capable of.

On offense, Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker are the top two hitters on the club. The former is a homegrown talent who just finished posting an .807 OPS and 130 wRC+ across 125 games in what was his first season in the big leagues. He’s also under team control until 2030, which is a major plus.

The latter is a more season veteran who has quietly become one of the top power hitters in the game. Rooker, 30, has hit 69 home runs over the past two years and just wrapped up a year where he hit 39 of them, drove in 112 runs and sported a 164 wRC+. His .927 OPS was eighth-best in the majors.

On Monday, the A’s made a huge move to lock up Rooker for what’ll likely be the rest of his career, signing him to a five-year, $60 million extension (with a $22 million vesting option for a sixth season). This is as team friendly of a move as they come. The deal buys out the remainder of his arbitration eligibility and at least two years of his free agency.

A few months back as the regular season wound down, we took a deeper look at the A’s players who are set to form their core. Butler was front and center, but JJ Bleday, Shea Langeliers and Jacob Wilson all deserve shoutouts as well.

On the pitching side of things, relief ace Mason Miller is sticking around despite the fact that he was one of the most sought after trade chips throughout this past season. He’ll remain the club’s shutdown closer.

JP Sears, Mitch Spence, Osvaldo Bido and Joey Estes are four candidates to take spots in the team’s 2025 starting rotation and while none look to be a clear cut ace, they all showed a bit of their own respective potentials this past year. More on them and two of the newest additions to the pitching staff in a bit.

Second-Half Optimism

For the first time in a long time, the A’s played .500 ball over the course of the second-half of the 2024 season. They were at 37-61 in the first half before going 32-32 down the stretch. This is a significant in-season improvement, and it was easy to see in action.

Simply put, the A’s began to play looser and just looked like they were having fun showing up to the ballpark as the year dragged on. Mark Kotsay deserves a ton of credit for the way he handled his squad as they battled through a tough first half. Teams that are hopelessly out of contention tend to go out with a whimper in years like this one, but the A’s took it upon themselves to go out with a bang.

Of the seven position players to appear in 50 or more second-half games for the 2024 A’s, five of them had a wRC+ north of 100, which is league-average. Rooker (158) and Butler (155) led the way and also both finished in the top-15 in the league in that category amongst all hitters with at least 150 plate appearances.

Bleday (134) and Langeliers (128) held their own, too; as did outfielder Seth Brown (107) who will be back for another go-round despite the fact that he was DFA’d at one point this past year.

The fun doesn’t stop on offense, though. Of the 13 A’s pitchers to make 10 or more second-half appearances for them this past year, two of them had an ERA beginning with 1, five of them began with 2, one began with 3 and five of them began with 4. Ross Stripling and his 6.37 second-half ERA held the team back, but he’s a free agent now.

An Active Offseason Goes a Long Way

It’s true: the A’s face a grievance with the MLBPA if they don’t spend a certain amount of money this offseason. This can come in the form of free agent signings or trades where they take on ugly contracts (a Jordan Montgomery or Ryan Pressly deal doesn’t feel like the craziest idea).

It’s also true that John Fisher likely only opened the pocketbooks to keep the players association happy. However, it’s also true that the club has made four significant moves to shore up their big league roster and all three of the newcomers should play important roles in the upcoming season.

The Rooker deal is extremely team-friendly, but it also shows that the A’s are willing to spend the money where it’s necessary. He was aggressively pursued at the 2024 trade deadline, but the club elected to hold on to him while insisting he was a piece of their long-term vision. Now that he’s locked up, the organization has proven that they’re serious about him as a building block rather than a trade chip.

Looking at the new additions to the roster, the A’s have done an outstanding job at upgrading their starting rotation. Sure, Bido, Spence, Estes and Sears are a solid quartet, but the additions of Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs are going to go a long way.

These two bring a boatload of experience and they’re both excellent pitchers.

Severino and Springs

Severino, 30, put together his best full season since 2018 in what wound up being a one-and-done with the New York Mets. The right-hander made 31 starts and went 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA, 4.21 FIP and 101 ERA+ across 182 innings of work.

Durability has been the biggest concern with him for years now, but he’s fully healthy and got a significant payday this winter from the team you’d least expect to hand out a three-year deal.

Springs, 32, was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays alongside reliever Jacob Lopez in exchange for three prospects and a comp pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. The left-hander has also struggled with staying healthy, but he’s been so good since making a full-time shift to the starting rotation.

Over the last three seasons, Springs has made just 35 starts (and eight relief appearances) but he’s posted a combined 2.44 ERA and 3.10 FIP. He’s struck out exactly 10 batters per nine innings in that time and has been a run-prevention machine. Again, keeping him healthy is going to be a crucial part of this whole ordeal, but he’s been outstanding when he’s taken the mound.

Bringing in these two pitchers to take over the top two spots of the A’s 2025 rotation is going to be immensely helpful. They’ve both faced their fair share of adversity over the years and will be great leaders in the clubhouse.

Help Around the Infield

In a much-less-exciting move than the other two, the A’s also inked infield veteran Gio Urshela to a single-year pact. The nine-year vet has turned into the true definition of a journeyman as his career has marched on, but he remains a decent player who isn’t much of a needle-mover but also won’t be a black hole on offense.

This past season, Urshela made it into 128 games split between the Tigers and Braves. He only hit .250 with a .647 OPS which hardly is enough to get you excited, but he did some damage against right-handed pitching, which has to count for something.

Defensively, he calls third base his position by trade, but his 86th percentile Range from this past year suggests he could conceivably get reps at first or second base if needed, too. The A’s need help on both sides of the ball, so Urshela should be a decent one-year stopgap until someone like Max Muncy or Joshua Kuroda-Grauer are ready to take over at third.

Assessing the Rivals

It’s a bold claim to say that the A’s have any shot at a postseason spot in 2025. If you find yourself saying “well that’s a bit of a stretch…”, I don’t blame you. A team going .500 in the second-half of the year before is hardly enough evidence to suggest that they’ve really got a shot.

However, they were able to leapfrog the Angels in the standings this past season and there are plenty of reasons to suggest that the Astros and Mariners are at risk of regressions in the coming season, and it’s anyone’s guess how the Rangers and their new roster will fare.

It’s a crazy thought, but there’s a chance the A’s are rising while the rest of the division is falling and things could just so happen to work out for them in the end.

Houston Astros

Yusei Kikuchi has already departed in favor of the Angels, so the Astros are already having to deal with the hole he leaves in their starting rotation. There’s also the impending departure of Alex Bregman and potentially Justin Verlander to take into account.

No matter which way you slice it, these Astros are getting older and their dynasty may very well be coming to a close. They traded away Kyle Tucker, who they knew was a longshot to be extended before he hit free agency, but inked soon-to-be 34-year-old Christian Walker to a three-year deal in free agency.

Isaac Paredes, who was part of the return for Tucker from the Cubs, is going to be in heaven with that short left field porch in Houston, but he alone is not going to be enough to carry this team to the promised land.

Jose Altuve is closing in on his mid-30s, the club’s bench is in absolute disarray and basically their whole pitching staff is littered with question marks.

Closer Ryan Pressly could not possibly be more available in trade talks, too, which would be a major hit to this team’s bullpen.

It’s not a good idea to write the Astros off while they still have Altuve, Paredes, Yordan Alvarez, and Framber Valdez on hand. However, you don’t have to squint very hard to see where there’s a large risk of regression looming over their heads.

fWAR out: 7.4

fWAR in: 6.5

Value: -0.9 fWAR

Seattle Mariners

As of right at this moment, the Mariners are basically without a solid option locked in at first base, second base, and third base. This is far less than ideal. Suboptimal, even.

Basically, the Mariners need Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena to return to form, Victor Robles to successfully build off of an outstanding 2024, Cal Raleigh to continue to hit 30 or more home runs and the rest of the supporting cast to carry their weight.

Seattle has been tied to a whole slew of infield upgrades but they have yet to pull the trigger on any of them. At separate points, the organization has been rumored to have its eyes on Paul Goldschmidt, Pete Alonso, Walker, Nolan Arenado, Bregman and Hyeseong Kim. So far, no dice.

The one saving grace for this team (and it’s a big one) is the fact that their starting rotation is one of the best in recent memory. One-through-five, these arms are absolute units and there’s little doubt that they’ll be good to go in 2025. Run prevention will go a long way, but they’re going to need multiple offensive pieces to pair with the arms if they’re going to have a chance.

fWAR out: 3.8

fWAR in: 0.3

Value: -3.5 fWAR

Texas Rangers

It’s not easy to poke holes in the 2025 Rangers at the moment, mostly because they’re going to look like a brand new team once the season gets underway. The club has been insanely active this winter in addressing their needs, but it remains to be seen how the product gels together once the games start.

So far, the Rangers have added Joc Pederson, Kyle Higashioka and Jake Burger to their offense. They’ve also re-signed Nathan Eovaldi and added Hoby Milner, Robert Garcia, Jacob Webb, Chris Martin and Shawn Armstrong to a bullpen that desperately needed a facelift.

Bringing in all of these players sounds great on paper, but who knows how it’s going to work out once the season begins. Assuming the Astros continue their downward trajectory, the Rangers are the biggest roadblock to the promised land for the A’s.

fWAR out: 9.5

fWAR in: 13.3

Value: 3.8 fWAR

Los Angeles Angels

Nobody can say the Angels aren’t trying, but it’s not yet clear what it is they are trying for.

So far, the club has traded for Jorge Soler; signed Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Newman, Scott Kingery, Kyle Hendricks, and Yusei Kikuchi while picking up Garrett McDaniels in the Rule 5 Draft. In the grand scheme of things, no team has been more active this winter.

However, it’s hard to say any of these players are needle-movers. Kikuchi showed some serious promise down the stretch with the Astros in 2024, but even he comes with his fair share of risk for regression.

Last year, the A’s managed to leapfrog the Angels in the standings, and it’s difficult to see things going any differently in the upcoming season.

fWAR out: 0.3

fWAR in: 8.6

Value: 8.3 fWAR

More Work to be Done

The A’s have done a solid job of compiling and developing young talent, of that there is no doubt. Adding some notable players via free agency and the trade market is going to do a lot for them as they make their move to West Sacramento, but they need to walk the walk.

With FanGraphs’ RosterResource now predicting the club’s 2025 payroll to be around $97 million, the team is only around $8 million away from reaching their $105 million goal to avoid the grievance. Trading for a Montgomery or a Pressly would comfortably get them to that number while also upgrading their roster in either the rotation or bullpen to pair with Miller.

This team leaning on a core of Butler, Rooker, Miller, Langeliers, Bleday and whoever is ready to take the next step in 2025 has a chance – albeit an outside one – to take the league by surprise.

Ultimately, the goal is going to be to find some year-over-year improvement, but the fact that the AL West is a bit of a wild-card brings about some intrigue. The A’s are not a club that’s going to push for a World Series (somebody screenshot this and save it for later), but let’s not forget that many around the industry said the exact same thing about the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers in 2024.

Those two clubs are living proof that “anything can happen” is so frequently thrown around baseball conversations for a reason. The A’s are not a club completely empty of talent, and there’s nothing stopping them from continuing this upward trajectory they’ve got themselves on.