Can the Twins Catch Up to the Guardians in the AL Central?

As we approach the All-Star break the Minnesota Twins find themselves within striking distance of the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central.

However, overcoming a five-game deficit to the team with the best record in the American League is not going to be easy. At no point this season have the Guardians made gaining ground easy for the Twins.

On April 21, the Twins found themselves with the third-worst record in the American League at 7-13. They were eight games back of the Guardians, who were 16-6. Since that day, the Twins have had the best record in the American League at 46-27. Despite their success in that time, the Twins have only gained three games on the Guardians.

Cleveland is obviously an outstanding team, but Minnesota should not be counted out just yet. The Twins have the ingredients to catch the Guardians, and if they put it all together, they can recapture the division.

How The Twins and Guardians Stack Up

The Twins and the Guardians are not as far apart as many may think they are. The Guardians have largely outperformed expectations, and the Twins are just starting to find their stride. Here is how both teams stack up statistically:

A couple of things stand out when you look at the numbers for these two teams. One of the first things is that Cleveland is not statistically elite in any category. They pretty much live in that 8th-12th range in almost every statistic.

Another thing that is easy to notice is that the Twins probably have a top-five offense in all of baseball. They rank top-five in all of the offensive categories listed. The offense has played a huge role in the Twins’ success this season.

The final and most important thing that you should notice is the Twins’ underperforming pitching staff. Their 19th-ranked ERA is not an accurate representation of the talent on the roster. Underlying stats such as FIP, xFIP, and SIERA suggest the Twins’ rotation will be much better than it has been going forward.

If there is a reason on the surface to believe that the Twins can catch the Guardians, it is their statistical advantages. If the Twins can get the most out of their pitching staff, they stand a chance in the division.

Twins and Guardians: Rosters Head-to-Head

If you want to take a closer look at how these teams match up, you can look directly at the rosters. Here is a brief look at how they match up at each position:

Once again, there are a couple of things that stand out immediately.

First, the Twins are producing close to league average or better offensively from every spot in the lineup. As stated earlier, this is a top-five offensive unit in baseball. Beyond that, they are a very well-rounded offense. There is no break in their lineup, which provides them with a large advantage.

Another thing that stands out is the pitching. Neither the Twins nor the Guardians have had exceptional starting pitching. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in starter ERA. Despite that, the Twins are 11th in fWAR among MLB rotations.

If either rotation begins to click as the season moves on, that team could pull away.

The one advantage that the Guardians have in the pitching department is the best bullpen in baseball. Where their starting pitching has slacked, their bullpen has stepped up. The Twins have a top-10 bullpen, but it is not of the same quality as the Guardians’.

The final points of interest here are the clear positional advantages for each team. The Twins have clear advantages at shortstop, center field, and right field. For the Guardians, outside of the bullpen, their biggest advantage is in left field. The Guardians have the best wRC+ and fWAR in the league from left field.

Factors in the Twins’ Favor

The Minnesota Twins have a real shot at the division if things fall their way. Our friends at BetMGM currently have the Twins at +175 to win the division behind the Guardians at -200. Those are not terribly long odds, and there are a couple of additional reasons to not count the Twins out.

Underperforming Pitching

This has been mentioned ad nauseam at this point, but once again, it needs to be said that the Twins’ pitching has wildly underperformed. The Twins have the seventh-largest difference between their ERA and FIP as a pitching staff.

The more predictive metrics love Minnesota’s pitching staff. In particular, xFIP and SIERA believe that the Twins’ pitchers are much better than what their ERA would indicate.

Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods Richardson have put together great seasons thus far in the rotation. On the flip side, Pablo López and Chris Paddack have been beyond disappointing.

A 5.11 ERA for Pablo is incredibly uncharacteristic and has him on pace for the worst statistical season of his career. I do not believe that he is going to finish the season with an ERA above five. He is too talented of a pitcher. He also has an xERA of 3.43, which ranks 18th in all of baseball; for reference, his ERA ranks 64th out of 66 qualified pitchers.

Paddack, too, has a much lower xERA (4.75), FIP (4.36), xFIP (4.08), and SIERA (4.12) than his 5.18 ERA.

This Twins’ rotation is much better than it has looked. Their starters are not going to be this bad the rest of the season. They can expect their pitching luck to regress to the mean.

The Guardians, on the other hand, are the opposite. Thus far, the Guardians have outperformed a lot of their predictive metrics, which should play in the Twins’ favor.

Reinforcements

The Twins have had some bad injury luck. They have also had players that they expected to contribute who really struggled out of the gate. A lot of those players should be available to bolster the roster sooner rather than later.

Before diving into those players who could be making their way back to the majors, let’s talk about one player who recently made his debut and is making a substantial impact.

Brooks Lee has come up and taken over third base in Royce Lewis‘s absence. He has gotten off to an incredible start in his first eight games. So far, in 33 at-bats, he has an OPS of .947 with nine RBIs. The immediate production from Lee is a great sign for the Twins.

Regarding the player Lee came up for, there is no knowing when Lewis will be back. There is not a lot of optimism regarding his status, so only time will tell. If the Twins are able to get him back at some point this season, that would be a game-changer.

One player who should return sooner rather than later is Austin Martin. Martin is having a fairly solid season for Minnesota this year. He has shown defensive versatility and posted a 103 wRC+ to go with it. He will be an upgrade over Kyle Farmer in a bench utility role once he returns.

Edouard Julien could also be a player to come up and make an impact. After struggling early in the season before his demotion, he has only recently begun to turn things around at Triple-A. His strikeout rate is still poor, but he is drawing his walks and has five home runs in 31 games.

It would be nice to see Julien figure things out and make his way back to the majors.

One player who appears to have figured things out in the minors is Matt Wallner. After going back down to Triple-A, he posted a 121 wRC+ with 19 homers in 67 games.

Wallner has been recalled back to the Twins and made an impact immediately. He sent a 98-mph fastball back out at 117 mph over the right field wall in his second game back. In four games, he is 6-for-11 with three extra-base hits and a 1.825 OPS.

Perhaps the two most important reinforcements will be David Festa and Louie Varland. Both have struggled in brief stints in the majors this year.

Festa has an ERA north of ten, and Varland has an ERA over six in the majors. Yet, they could both be called upon again to come up and make an impact during a crucial part of the season. Festa is a top-100 prospect, and with a little more time in Triple-A, he could play a serious role this season.

Conclusion

While there are certainly a lot of things that play in the Twins’ favor, they have their pitfalls as well.

One is their perceived aggressiveness (or lack thereof) at the deadline. After how this offseason went in Minnesota, it is really hard for me to see them being particularly aggressive at the trade deadline. They could really use another starting pitcher, but I just don’t know if that happens.

Another reason for doubt is the Twins’ lackluster record against quality competition. When it comes to playing teams with winning records, the Twins are 18-24, which is the 16th-best record in baseball. The Guardians, on the other hand, have the best such record in the AL at 24-15.

The silver lining is that the Twins really beat up on lesser competition. They have the second-best record in baseball against teams with losing records at 35-16, only trailing the Red Sox. Unfortunately for the Twins, if they want to win the division, they are going to have to beat good teams as well.

At the end of the day, there is certainly a chance that the Twins catch the Guardians. The Guardians are currently on pace for 101 wins while slightly over-performing their expected statistics. The Twins are on pace for 92 wins while slightly underperforming those same statistics. There is a really good chance that the Twins take a step up and the Guardians take a step back, meeting in the middle. Do not count the Twins out just yet.