Can J.P. Crawford Rediscover His Best Self for the Mariners?

The Mariners sure could use the version of Crawford they saw in 2023.

J.P. Crawford of the Seattle Mariners celebrates his walk-off double against the Texas Rangers to win 3-2 at T-Mobile Park.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - SEPTEMBER 28: J.P. Crawford #3 of the Seattle Mariners celebrates his walk-off double against the Texas Rangers to win 3-2 at T-Mobile Park on September 28, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

Entering the 2024 season, Just Baseball ranked J.P. Crawford of the Seattle Mariners as the ninth-best shortstop in the league. Perhaps it was an aggressive ranking. Then again, he was coming off a phenomenal campaign.

Crawford finished with a career-best 136 wRC+ in 2023, the fifth-highest among qualified AL batters. His 4.9 FanGraphs WAR ranked 10th.

Those numbers helped him earn a handful of down-ballot MVP votes at the end of the season. He was also a finalist for the Silver Slugger and a nominee for the All-MLB Team. Here at Just Baseball, we named him the AL Breakout Player of the Year.

Another year later, however, Crawford’s stock has fallen fast. In 105 games last season, he produced a career-worst .202 batting average and .625 OPS. His 89 wRC+ was 11% worse than league average and 47% worse than his top-five wRC+ from 2023.

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When the Just Baseball editorial team ranked our top shortstops for 2025, he didn’t make anyone’s top 15, let alone the top 10.

Simply put, expectations are low for J.P. Crawford.

Yet, we’re talking about a player who averaged a 102 wRC+ and 3.0 WAR per 162 games from 2020-22. We’re talking about a player who is only one year removed from being a top-five hitter in the AL at a premier defensive position. We’re talking about a player who only just turned 30 years old.

If Crawford can return to his 2020-22 form in 2025, he’ll be a far more productive player than he was in 2024. And if he can somehow tap back into the magic of his 2023 campaign, he’ll be one of the biggest bounce-back stories in the sport.

The Mariners Can Expect a Bounceback From J.P. Crawford

J.P. Crawford of the Seattle Mariners looks on during the game between the Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park.
SEATTLE, WA – OCTOBER 15: J.P. Crawford #3 of the Seattle Mariners looks on during the game between the Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on Saturday, October 15, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

There are several good reasons to count on a bounceback from Crawford.

For one, it’s worth mentioning that his struggles were much worse in the second half of 2024. Specifically, he struggled badly upon his return from a fracture to his right pinky finger.

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Hand injuries have been known to sap players’ power long after they are supposedly healthy enough to return. Indeed, Crawford had a 93 wRC+ and .143 isolated power in 335 PA before his injury and a 79 wRC+ and .051 ISO in 116 PA after.

The injury can’t explain all of his struggles, but it’s a piece of the puzzle. After an offseason of rest, he should hopefully be back at full strength by Opening Day.

Another consideration is that Crawford’s .248 batting average on balls in play last season was easily a career-low. Only 10 AL batters (min. 400 PA) had a lower BABIP.

In contrast, he averaged a .299 BABIP over his first five seasons in Seattle. That’s slightly above league average and especially impressive for a hitter who played his home games at the offense-suppressing T-Mobile Park.

By and large, you can expect a hitter’s BABIP to regress toward his career average. In other words, it’s highly unlikely Crawford will remain such a low-BABIP hitter moving forward. After all, it’s not as if he was hitting the ball with any less authority in 2024.

On the contrary, Crawford’s 37.5% hard-hit rate and 6.5% barrel rate last year were career highs. Accordingly, his .341 xwOBA on contract looked more like his .359 xwOBAcon from 2023 than his .315 xwOBAcon from 2019-22.

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Those numbers are a strong indication that Crawford will be a much more impactful hitter in 2025.

With all that said, I don’t mean to suggest that Crawford’s down year was entirely the result of bad luck. His strikeout and whiff rates were the highest they’ve been in years. Meanwhile, his line drive rate was uncharacteristically low.

For context, line drives had a .693 BABIP last season. All other batted balls had a collective .185 BABIP. All else being equal, the higher a hitter’s line drive rate is, the higher his BABIP will be.

Every year from 2020-23, Crawford posted a line drive rate between 23.2% and 23.6%. How’s that for consistency? Then, in 2024, his line drive rate fell to 18.0%. That’s a massive drop, taking him from the 86th percentile in 2023 to the 25th percentile last season.

Yet, considering how consistent his line drive rate has been in the past, I’m optimistic Crawford can get it back up in 2025. If he does, it will make a huge difference in his batting line.

One more point to consider is that Crawford was pulling the ball far less often in 2024.

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When he managed to pull a ball in the air, he was just as successful in 2024 (416 wRC+) as he was the year before (408 wRC+). However, he pulled just 21.7% of his fly balls and line drives, compared to 35.7% the year prior.

That explains a lot of his missing production, especially in the power department.

I find this more concerning than his line drive rate. Crawford’s pull rate on balls in the air from 2019-22 was 25.3%. That number is a lot closer to his pull rate from 2024 than 2023. So, I’m far less confident that his pull rate will rise again in 2025.

Still, if I can identify that problem, the Mariners and Crawford can too. Hopefully it’s something they’ve been working to address over the offseason.

Ultimately, however, as long as Crawford’s BABIP and line drive rate regress toward his career averages, he should be a much better hitter in 2025 than he was in 2024 – even if he continues to strike out a little more often and can’t pull the ball quite like he did in 2023.

Crawford Can Put It All Together

Jorge Polanco #7, J.P. Crawford #3 and Julio Rodriguez #44 of the Seattle Mariners celebrate after a game against the Chicago Cubs at T-Mobile Park.
SEATTLE, WA – APRIL 12: (L-R) Jorge Polanco #7, J.P. Crawford #3 and Julio Rodriguez #44 of the Seattle Mariners celebrate after a game against the Chicago Cubs at T-Mobile Park on April 12, 2024 in Seattle, Washington. The Mariners won 4-2. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)

While J.P. Crawford’s offensive numbers took a major hit last season, he made up for some of that missing production with a strong year in the field and on the bases.

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From 2022-23, Crawford was worth -7 DRS, -19 OAA, and just 1.1 DRP in 288 games at shortstop. Last year, he racked up 9 DRS, 1 OAA, and 7.1 DRP in 104 contests.

While those different metrics might disagree about how bad he was at worst and how good he was at his best, they all suggest his glove was far more valuable in 2024 than it’s been in years.

It’s important to take single-season defensive metrics with a grain of salt, especially in an injury-shortened season, but that’s a noticeable improvement. If Crawford can maintain that level of defense and get his bat back to an above-average level, he could be a three-win player in 2025.

What’s more, Crawford also set new career highs in the baserunning metrics at FanGraphs and Baseball Savant in 2024.

This isn’t a guy who’s ever going to be a true threat on the basepaths. His sprint speed has dropped substantially since his early twenties, and he’s never stolen more than six bases in a season. Still, if he can be just slightly above league average again in 2025, he’ll be all the more valuable to Seattle’s offense.

Finally, if Crawford could somehow find a way to combine his 2023 bat with his 2024 defense and baserunning, he would be a top-five shortstop in baseball. That’s really saying something, considering the strong state of the position.

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Of course, that’s almost certainly asking too much of Crawford. Then again, he’s done it all before, and at 30 years old, he’s young enough that he could do it all again.