Mariners Only Hope in 2025 is Having a Bounce Back Roster

With a lack of offseason moves, the Seattle Mariners are going to need countless players in their lineup to collectively bounce back in 2025.

Julio Rodríguez of the Seattle Mariners walks to the dugout.
OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 05: Julio Rodríguez #44 of the Seattle Mariners walks to the dugout before their game against the Oakland Athletics at Oakland Coliseum on June 5, 2024 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Ask any Mariners fan what they think off the offseason so far, and you’ll be met with anger and disappoint. After a self-imposed $15 million budget for the offseason, Seattle has been one of the quieter teams in the free agent market landing Donovan Solano and a few minor league deals.

After winning 90 games in 2021 and 2022, the Mariners were building an exciting window led by a youthful core and a number of different veterans.

Although General Manager Jerry Dipoto, who’s known for an inordinate amount of trades, has continued to tweak the roster, the Mariners could not get to the next level.

With one of the best rotations in all of baseball, all with years of team control, the Mariners are very much still in a competitive window. However, their offense has let them down and the front office/ownership has done little to nothing toward correcting their greatest flaw.

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As the offseason winds down, and more players elect to go elsewhere, the Mariners are cornering themselves into a repeat lineup that did not produce nearly enough. Although holes remain, Dipoto has not swung a signature trade or signed a bat worthy of praise.

So, how do the Mariners improve? It must come from within.

Julio Needs to be Julio

I know, I know. Criticizing a 20/20 player who put up a 3.8 fWAR season might come off a bit tacky. But, you and I both know Julio Rodriguez has another level to his game. He’s the nucleus of this Mariners team and needs to play at a super star level in order for them to reach new heights.

What we saw last season should be closer to his floor than ceiling. A .273/.325/.409 slash, 116 wRC+, 20 home runs and 24 stolen bases is great production, but he has the talent to be so much more.

He pulverizes baseballs, has elite speed, and is a Gold Glove defender. Expecting a five plus win season is fair and just. Quite frankly, there is no reason why he can’t be the best center fielder in baseball.

Now 24 years old and entering year four (already?!), what adjustment or improvements can Julio make to solidify himself as a true super star?

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It starts with making more contact on pitches he can do damage with. Last season, Rodriguez had a 78.8% zone contact rate compared to an 83.3% the year prior. When you impact the baseball the way he does, even small improvements can lead to big results.

His 25% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate are not terrible but do offer room for improvement. As you can see from the graphic above, Rodriguez chased too often out of the zone and racked up strikeouts in areas where he could draw walks.

Low and away, especially outside of the zone, was a problem. Learning to lay off those pitches will work deeper counts, presumably increase his walk rate, and allow him to see more pitches in the zone. If Rodriguez can get his strikeout rate closer to 22% and his walk rate around 8% his offensive numbers will all improve.

The Mariners Have a Mitch Problem

Bringing back Mitch Haniger after a lousy season in San Francisco might have helped warm fans hearts, but it did not help production on the field. Haniger slashed .208/.286/.334 posting a career worst .126 ISO while also, once again, dealing with injuries.

His home run to fly ball rate dipped to 12.9%, a far cry from his 16-20% we saw during his peak years in Seattle. His .620 OPS was the lowest of his career and at 34 years old, you have to wonder if his best days are behind him. After posting a .486 OPS against lefties, I’m not sure the Mariners are in a spot to platoon him in any fashion.

He’s on the books for $17.5 million this season, a number he cannot justify unless a major power surge comes back. He still hits the ball hard but staying on the field and playing at 100% is the only way he can provide value. His two full seasons of production are the only times he’s breached 20 home runs. Keeping Haniger healthy is the only hope for him returning value.

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Speaking of 34 year-old guys named Mitch who are often injured, let’s shift our focus to Mitch Garver. Prior to last season the Mariners paid up to land Garver on a two-year deal worth $24 million. Money they wish went elsewhere.

Garver, an eight-year pro, did post a career-high 114 games in 2024, only the second time he had eclipsed the 100 game mark. However, his -0.4 fWAR was the lowest of his career. Sold as a high on-base, power bat, Garver produced 15 home runs which fell short of expectations.

Considering both Mitch’s are better suited to DH, one will be taking up space on the bench. If Seattle can get anything close to a ceiling out of at least one, I think they will take it. Bottom line, you need more power and both have displayed that ability in the past.

Getting More Out of Key Veterans

Seattle had no shortage of players that failed to reach expectations. Players who have proven their baseline is higher than their 2024 production. As more and more young players start to enter the mix, the Mariners will rely on their veterans to provide stability in the lineup.

These next two players have to be better, and I think they will.

J.P. Crawford

Veteran J.P. Crawford finished top 20 in MVP voting in 2023. By far his best season, expectations for 2024 were high, but reasonable people understood a repeat year was unlikely.

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We can agree 2023 was an outlier and not a reasonable ceiling moving forward. After three straight-years of 100+ wRC+ seasons, Crawford finished 2024 with an 89 wRC+. Injuries hampered him and likely played a role in his decreased production.

No, I do not expect Crawford to put up a 5 WAR season like we saw in 2023. Getting back to a 100 wRC+ hitter who puts the ball in play would drastically help the bottom third of Seattle’s lineup. His defense was better in 2024 and needs to remain at that level moving forward.

Randy Arozarena

Acquiring Randy Arozarena was a savy move last season. Adding a righty bat with a track record and team control is exactly what the Mariners needed. While Arozarena’s numbers were fine, the Mariners need him to do more. He still walked at an impressive clip, but his power numbers and stolen base pace took a dip once he joined the Mariners.

Whether or not the it’s fair to ask Arozarena to outperform roughly his career standard is not really the question. The lack of moves the Mariners have made puts the pressure on players like Arozarena to perform better because it is the only path to better team success.

Final Thoughts

The good news – these players have proven they can be productive at the major league level. I think it is more likely some combination of them bounce back than all having similar years. That alone would help the offense and Seattle’s outlook.

Players like Ryan Bliss, Tyler Locklear, Samad Taylor, and other unproven talent could find a role and help round out the roster. Players could post career years helping the offense, and so on. However, relying on this many maybes feels too risky when you have a pitching staff like the Mariners do.

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Seattle is by no means a bad team. In fact if they have even a league-average lineup that should at the very least be a playoff team. Finding the route to being a great team is going to be much harder though, unless shrewd moves are made by Dipoto, or they get some standout performances within.