The D-Backs Need Ketel Marte to Start Carrying His Weight
In order for the Diamondbacks to return to October baseball, Ketel Marte needs to return to his usual form.
Regardless of how the Arizona Diamondbacks are doing, one consistent is the production of All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte.
A three-time All-Star, Marte is already third among position players in team history with 32.0 fWAR. Barring injury, he’ll likely pass longtime outfielder Luis Gonzalez in total games played for the franchise. However, he’s far from perfect.
In recent years, reports have surfaced of organizational frustration with Marte, often related to his availability — specifically the games he does not play when he is healthy.
Those makeup concerns became a point of contention last offseason when it came out the team was fielding offers on the longtime Diamondback. Ultimately, nothing came of it, he stayed in Arizona, where he’s been since 2017.
That said, this year, the 33-year-old is slashing .263/.317/.451 with a 111 wRC+, 12 home runs, 46 runs batted in, and 1.5 fWAR across 74 games. For many, that’s a fine season. And for some, that’s even considered the start of a great season.
For Marte, that’s far below his standard.
The Diamondbacks as a whole are suffering from this regression. While still within a game and a half of the final wild-card spot, they’re just 39-39 with a -26 run differential.
Marte isn’t alone on the regression bus. His double play partner, Geraldo Perdomo, is down to a 101 wRC+ from 138 a season ago; on pace for 3.2 fWAR, less than half his 2025 total.
But as a leader of the franchise, the expectations are much higher. If the Diamondbacks want to return to the playoffs, he’s got to start carrying his weight.
That said, pulling back the curtain, it’s only a matter of time before the results start to show.
Stats were taken prior to play on June 23.
Identifying the Problem
A major red flag to Marte’s game this year is the eradication of his plate discipline. Last year, the switch-hitter was in the 71st percentile for chase rate and 84th for walk rate. This year, he’s fallen to the 36th percentile and 28th percentile, respectively.
Not a lot has changed in his profile as a hitter, but chasing more, as someone who doesn’t whiff a whole lot, creates tougher pitches to get the barrel to.
It’s not like 2025 was a one-off with his plate discipline. From 2023 to 2025, he had a walk rate of 11.2%. While not among the best walk artists in the sport, that was still in the top 35 of 229 qualified hitters. Couple a proficiency for ball four with a 16.7% strikeout rate, and you have an incredibly dangerous hitter.
Marte drives the ball in the air a lot, especially to the pull side. Forcing opposing pitchers into the zone made it easier for him to drive the ball and do damage. That’s dissipated in 2026, so much so that, despite a strong stretch since the start of May, he’s still got just a 124 wRC+ across the 199 plate appearances.
His barrel rate is down to 10.4% from 13.5% a season ago. Still in the 66th percentile this year, but down from the 83rd percentile a year ago.
His bat speed is the same, and his quality of contact is still strong, it’s just about getting pitchers to respect his eye again. It’ll take some work, but getting back to that process is paramount in fully turning his season around.
Staying the Course Elsewhere
As mentioned, a lot of Marte’s profile is more or less unchanged from a year ago. After seeing a major uptick in pull-air rate from 2024 to 2025, he’s only seen a slight downturn in 2026.
He’s making more contact than a season ago, with his average exit velocity jumping from 90.8 to 91.4 mph. Not only that, his .210 isolated power is more in line with recent years even if still down from 2025. From a process standpoint, there’s a lot to like about the year Marte is having.
At 33 years old, there are always growing concerns of a player showing signs of slowing down. Aside from the plate discipline, there’s nothing really suggesting that with Marte. Whether the trade speculation is behind him or not, Diamondbacks fans don’t have to look at his 2026 as anything more than a year of bad results thus far.
That said, he’s slashing .282/.332/.492 with a 124 wRC+ and 22 extra-base hits since May 1. So even if the numbers haven’t fully rebounded from a tough start, the recent trend is showing the steadier performance of Marte we’re more accustomed to seeing.
What the Under-the-Hood Metrics Say
One thing for certain with Marte’s season is that he’s gotten royally unlucky. His .263 batting average is the easiest number to point at due for positive regression. Based on his quality of contact, Statcast measures his expected batting average as .301, which is good for 97th percentile this season.
Since debuting, that’s the highest xBA of his career, tied with his 2021 campaign where he hit .318 with a 141 wRC+ in 90 games.
His slugging percentage of .451 is playing 49 points below his expected; his .334 wOBA is playing 36 points below expected.
Marte’s average exit velocity is up, as is his hard-hit rate. Additionally, he’s maintained his squared-up percentage and bat speed metrics from a year ago.
Based on the expected data, it’s really only a matter of time before the Marte of old shines through and resurrects what was an abysmal start to his 2026. For the D-Backs, that’s critical in getting them back to October baseball.
If they can get the same turnaround out of Perdomo, they’ll emerge as a much tougher out this season. Until then, they’re stuck hovering around .500 and on the periphery of postseason contention.
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