The Top AL Teams Have Been Coasting For Months

The opening months of the MLB season saw three American League teams make a rapid ascension to the top of the standings.

The Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians all found themselves above the 50 win plateau on July 1.

And while these three are still the top AL teams in the standings entering the final stretch, they’ve certainly failed to maintain the blistering form they opened the 2024 campaign with.

Both AL East teams have failed to separate themselves form each other in the battle for the division title after their strong starts.

The Baltimore Orioles have gone 31-35 after an opening three-month record of 53-31, and the New York Yankees have only mustered a 33-31 record after a 54-32 posting to open to the season.

And in the AL Central, the Cleveland Guardians have gone 34-34 after starting 52-30 and surrendered a double digit lead in the AL Central to just a four game lead as it stands on Sept. 16.

So what’s caused the mediocrity of these “powerhouses” during the dog days of summer?

All statistics and standings used within this article are from prior to games on Sept. 16.

Baltimore Orioles

It’s been an all round decline for the Orioles in the second half of the season, as their offense, starting rotation and bullpen have all noticeably underperformed the totals they posted to open the 2024 season.

Offense

The Orioles are led by a series of top young talent at the plate with names like Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman stealing the headlines.

And as July rolled around Baltimore held arguably the best offense in baseball. They led the league in wRC+ at 120, in OPS at .778, in SLG at .462 as well as in HR with 139 and RBI with 427.

And those stars like Henderson and Rutschman were among those leading the charge, as the Orioles had eight players, who’d posted at least 100 plate appearances, sporting a wRC+ above 100, and one in Jorge Mateo who only fell just shy.

Since then, offensive numbers have plummeted in Baltimore. The O’s now rank 15th in wRC+ at 105, 19th in OPS at .716, 20th in SLG at .402, 13th in HR with 79 and 19th in RBI with 273.

And the offensive downturn can be attributed to multiple different key pieces failing to keep pace with the blistering starts to the campaign that they had.

Henderson went from a 177 wRC+ player in the first half to a 132 wRC+ player in the second. His slash line has fallen from .288/.384/.604 to .273/.345/.465. All of these are still respectable totals but are certainly a far cry from the MVP case he was making for himself pre-July.

The biggest underperformer of the O’s, and possibly the league entirely, in the second-half has been Rutschman. His first half 134 wRC+ is now compared to a putrid second half wRC+ total of 67, the lowest among any Orioles hitter with 100+ plate appearances since July 1. His slash line has gone from a blazing .294/.350/.471 to a dreadful .191/.285/.289.

And injuries to key pieces in the lineup like Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle have made repeating their scintillating form an even greater uphill battle.

Starting Rotation

Baltimore has often been criticized for lacking the depth in talent within their rotation to match their lineup.

But Baltimore seemed to turn a corner after the addition of one of the league’s best starters this offseason, Corbin Burnes.

Burnes led this Orioles rotation to rank as a top 10 rotation through the opening three months of the season.

Through June 30 the O’s starters ranked tied for sixth in fWAR at 8.0. They also found themselves ranking second as group in ERA at 3.36, sixth in FIP 3.77, tied for fourth in WHIP at 1.18 and seventh in AVG against at .233.

But since then the O’s have found themselves noticeably lower across the board. In the second half of the season the O’s are outside the top 10 in fWAR, as they sit 12th with at 4.1, directly behind teams like Oakland and Toronto who’ve been out of the postseason mix for a majority of the season.

They also sit 18th in ERA at 4.35, 12th in FIP at a 4.12, T-21st in WHIP at 1.35 and 21st in AVG against at .258.

A big contributor to this has been the losses of Kyle Bradish and John Means. Even though they both began the season on the IL, both returned within the first half of the season, pitched well, and then landed back on the IL with season-ending injuries.

Burnes dazzled in the first half with a 2.28 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and a .216 AVG against across 106.2 innings of work. But since July 1, it’s been a entirely different tale for the 2024 AL All-Star Game starter, as across 75.2 innings Burnes has thrown to a 4.16 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP and a .250 AVG against.

Their promising young starter of the future, Grayson Rodriguez, also saw a fall off between the two halves of the season before hitting the IL in early August. His 3.72 ERA in the first half fell into the 4.00s in the second half.

And the addition of rookie Cade Povich into the starting mix has come with it’s flaws, as his 6.80 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and .299 AVG against in 42.1 innings across eight starts has not done wonders to dispel the Orioles coasting argument by any means.

Bullpen

Baltimore was always going to be behind the eight-ball this season when it came to their bullpen after losing one of the league’s best closers, Felix Bautista, for the entirety due undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2023.

But the O’s still managed to rank as a Top 10 bullpen in fWAR in the first half of the season, sitting tied for eighth at 2.7.

They also sat ninth in MLB in ERA at 3.56, tied for seventh in FIP at 3.72, and third in both WHIP and AVG against at 1.15 and .209 respectively.

But like the offense and the rotation, performance in bullpen also dipped after June 30, as the O’s ‘pen have posted a 1.0 fWAR, only good enough for a tie for 20th in the majors.

They’ve also declined significantly in ERA as they’ve put up the fifth worst mark in baseball at 4.82.

Baltimore is also tied for 20th in FIP at 4.14, 18th in WHIP at 1.27 and 19th in AVG against at .240.

A big contributor to this has been the decline of Craig Kimbrel in the second half. After pitching to a 2.37 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP and a .154 AVG against in the first half, Kimbrel has followed that up with an abysmal 7.17 ERA, a 1.69 WHIP and a .244 AVG against, looking so overmatched he’s lost his closing role to Seranthony Dominguez in the process.

And while Dominguez has lived up to expectations so far in Baltimore after being acquired at the trade deadline, his fellow deadline acquisition in Gregory Soto has not. In 13.2 innings pitched as an Oriole, Soto is sporting a 6.59 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP and a .316 AVG against.

New York Yankees

The Yankees have had a less straightforward explanation to why they’ve found themselves faltering in the second half of the season. While they too have also seen a mixture of issues in the second half, their’s are more subtle than the issues that their division rivals in Baltimore are facing.

Offense

They’re offense, lead by two MVP caliber superstars in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, has remained as one of the top offenses in the league. In the first three months of the season New York posted the second best total in wRC+ at 116. They’ve followed their first half up by maintaining their 116 wRC+ and second ranked standing in the second half.

The biggest issue for the Bronx Bombers has been the drop off in quality toward the bottom of their order.

In the first half of the season, nearly every hitter that had 100+ plate appearances was at at least an 85 wRC+ player, meaning they were within 15 of league average. This meant they had more respectable depth to fill out the bottom of the order.

And while the top half of the order dramatically improved after the addition of Jazz Chisholm Jr. at the deadline and the breakout of rookie Austin Wells, the bottom half of the order has gotten noticeably worse, as only seven hitters with at least 100 plate appearances have posted wRC+ totals above 75 from July 1 onwards.

Anthony Volpe has collapsed in the second half of 2024 with a 67 wRC+ after being a league average player in the opening half of the season at 100 wRC+.

Alex Verdugo has fared a similar fate, after his 95 opening half wRC+ dropped significantly to just a 73 wRC+ from July 1 onwards.

And while players like Wells and Gleyber Torres have risen into the top six conversation in New York, one of their marketable superstars in Giancarlo Stanton is instilling doubt within the top section of the order after his first half 122 wRC+ has been followed up with just an average 100 wRC+ performance.

While it’s easy to see why the Yankees have been able to maintain a strong hitting status as team despite their coasting, it’s equally as easy to see how their offense hasn’t done anything in particular to improve on their first half either. While their top six is strong, Stanton’s looked vulnerable, and they’ve had absolutely no semblance of a productive lineup past the six-hole.

Hopefully for Yankees’ sake the recent promotion of the The Martian, Jasson Dominguez, will provide the life within the depth of this lineup that Yankee fans have been crying out for for months now.

Starting Rotation

The Yankees starting rotation also saw dip in production in some key statistical metrics in the second half.

They followed up a an opening half combined starter ERA of 3.47. which ranked fourth in baseball, with a second half 4.42 ERA, good enough for just 19th in the league.

They also saw steep decline in combined WHIP, as an opening half 1.19 WHIP was followed up by a 1.35 WHIP in the second half.

And this drop was also found in their starters combined AVG against, as their first three month posting of .224 was followed up by a disappointing .254 posting in the summer months, a 30-point swing.

This was in large part due to the inflated numbers of two key members in the middle of their rotation, Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes, which has essentially washed out the return of Gerrit Cole and his 2.79 second half ERA, and a relatively average 3.90 second half ERA of Carlos Rodón.

Bullpen

The Yankees bullpen as unit has been a middle-of-the-pack bullpen across both halves of the season.

What’s been more noticeable has been the decrease in production from some of their top backend arms.

Clay Holmes was named an AL all-star after a posting a 2.65 ERA, a 2.44 FIP and a 1.0 fWAR while converting 19 saves from Opening Day to June 30. But since then Holmes has struggled to a 4.07 ERA, a 3.25 FIP a 0.4 fWAR.

Luke Weaver was one of the most dependable and utilized arms in Aaron Boone’s ‘pen, as he amassed 45.2 innings of work in 30 appearances. And he posted great outputs, with a 2.76 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP and a .171 AVG against. But the second half hasn’t been as kind to Weaver, with an ERA of 3.55, a WHIP of 1.12, and a .185 AVG.

And Michael Tonkin was probably the biggest disappointment from the first half to the second half in the Yankee bullpen. Tonkin dazzled in the first half, as across 29.1 innings he posted a 1.23 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a .162 AVG against. Then the second half came and Tonkin struggled to a 5.74 ERA, a 1.39 and a .262 AVG against resulting in the Yankees designating him for assignment on Aug. 25.

While Tommy Kahnle has come back from the IL and been great in relief and Tim Hill has been the left-handed reliever the Yankees have been in desperate need for, having three of your key relievers in the first half diminish their production in the second half has certainly played a role in the Yankees’ summer stretch of mediocrity.

Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland’s reason behind their seemingly static form in the standings isn’t as rounded across the board as their fellow AL Wild Card bye candidates in Baltimore and New York.

The Guardians have featured one of the worst starting rotations in baseball in 2024. In the first half they found themselves dead-last in MLB for combined starter fWAR at 2.5. And despite actually getting marginally better with a 25th ranked league fWAR of 2.6 in the second half, they’re still one of the worst rotations from a statistical standpoint.

And vice versa, the Guardians’ bullpen is still top-five in baseball led by a lights out back three in Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and closer extraordinaire Emmanuel Clase.

Where Cleveland has displayed their signs of coasting is solely within their offense, as it’s been one of MLB’s worst offenses in the second half of the 2024 season.

Up until June 30, Cleveland held a Top 10 offense in baseball by several metrics. They ranked ninth in wRC+ at 106, 10th in SLG at .410, 10th in OBP at .319 and ninth RBI with 378.

And the Guardians featured five hitters with a wRC+ higher than 100 in the first half, four of which posted of totals of at least 125 wRC+ leading them all to earn spots on the 2024 AL All-Star roster.

But since then Cleveland have plummeted across the board offensively from July 1 onwards. They rank 27th in the league in wRC+ posting a mark of 90. Their SLG has dropped 35 points to .375, ranking them 27th in MLB. Their OBP has dropped 23 points to .296, 27th in MLB. And suddenly the runs have stopped coming in at a Top 10 pace, as they rank 26th in the second-half with just 252 driven in.

The Guardians now have just one player whose performed at a wRC+ of 125 or higher; Jhonkensy Noel.

And Noel, along with Ramirez and Naylor are the only two Guardians hitters with at least 100 plate appearances with a wRC+ above average (100).

This decline in offense, and ultimately their coasting as a team in the second half, can largely be pointed to the declines each on of their offensive all-stars in 2024 have faced.

Steven Kwan has been terrible in the second half. After posting a 3.2 fWAR, a 176 wRC+, a .368 AVG and a .961 OPS, he was statistically Cleveland’s best hitter. But he’s followed that up with a very disappointing 0.6 fWAR, a 94 point plummet to a 82 wRC+, a .620 OPS and a .219 AVG since July 1.

And one of the biggest overachievers of 2024 in the first half, David Fry, looks extremely far off the performance that made him an all-star in the first place. After posting a 1.9 fWAR and 166 wRC+ in the opening three months of the season, he’s only managed an -0.2 fWAR and an 81 wRC+ since. And after hitting .310 with a .945 OPS, he’s only managed to hit .205 while posting a .638 OPS in the second half.

And while they still remain above average hitters, Ramirez following up a first half 145 wRC+ with a 117 wRC+ and Naylor following up a 125 wRC+ with a 111 wRC+ has not helped mitigate the downfall of the Guardians lineup.

So What Does This Mean Down The Stretch?

Despite their coasting the last three months, these three teams are likely still the frontrunners for the two byes to the ALDS but they need to lock in and lock in fast.

The AL East is still up for grabs with the Yankees leading the O’s by only three games and as I’ve already touched on. And with how the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins have performed in the second half, I don’t think either of these teams want to test their luck against them in the Wild Card rounds.

And speaking of the Royals and Twins, the AL Central is no longer out of reach considering the poor second half of the Guardians.

Putting the regular season aside, these three teams need to find their footing soon, as the Houston Astros could now be considered the favorites in the AL after their blistering form in the second half.

These rosters have shown their potential this season, it’s a matter of just dialing into that and finishing strong, because mediocrity won’t cut it in October.