Austin Wells Has Become the Dark Horse Rookie of the Year

It’s been about a month since the last time Just Baseball took a look at the AL Rookie of the Year odds and things have changed quite a bit since then.

In August, Colton Cowser was listed as the favorite, while Yankees right-hander Luis Gil was just behind him according to the odds. This goes to show how quickly things can change in baseball, as an injury ended Gil’s chances for the prestigious award as quickly as it came.

This opened the door for fellow Yankees rookie Austin Wells to make up some ground. The young catcher is a former first-round pick who has seriously impressed this year both at the plate and behind it.

There’s something poetic about the fact that the two favorites to win this award are also division rivals. Not only are they rivals, but their clubs are currently separated by just a half-game in the standings right now. The Orioles and Yankees are two of the top juggernauts in the AL and it’s only fitting that one of them will have this year’s Rookie of the Year.

Over in the National League, the Paul Skenes vs. Jackson Merrill race is stealing all the headlines. They’re two of the best players at their respective positions and are going to be stars for a long, long time. But don’t sleep on the race over in the AL, too. It’s every bit as close, even if the race isn’t quite as exciting as it is over in the other league.

Stats updated prior to games on September 8.

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2024 AL Rookie of the Year Odds

• Colton Cowser: -1000

• Austin Wells: +700

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Colton Cowser’s Rookie of the Year Case

2024 stats: 135 G, 69 R, 106 H, 20 HR, 62 RBI, 8 SB, .244/.326/.440, .766 OPS, 118 wRC+

Cowser busted out of the gates this year with a red-hot showing in the month of April/March. He hit .303 in 28 games, posting an OPS north of 1.000 while driving in 18 runs. In both May and June, he hit under .200 and saw quite a bit of his stock come crashing down.

A bounce-back in July, followed up by another dud of a month in August has Cowser’s status as hands down Rookie of the Year up in the air.

To his credit, he leads qualified AL rookies in multiple categories including home runs (20) and runs scored (69). So much of his value comes from what he does in the field, too, so he’s not only a bat.

Entering the day, Cowser has an OAA of 10, which is good for 10th in the majors and fourth in the AL behind only Daulton Varsho, Jake Meyers and Jose Siri. The fact that Cowser’s had a strong bat and well above-average defensive chops makes him an obvious candidate to take home this year’s award.

However, he’s got some stiff competition if he hopes to hold on to what is currently a shrinking lead in the betting odds.

Austin Wells: Rookie of the Year Dark Horse

2024 stats: 98 G, 38 R, 75 H, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 1 SB, .253/.345/.431, .776 OPS, 120 wRC+

No matter what you do, do not forget about Wells in this race. Cowser has him beat as far as total sample size goes, which is exactly why their full-season aren’t quite matching up. The fact that Cowser has nearly 40 more games under his belt than Wells is why there’s such a difference in their respective productions.

Even after taking this into account, Wells is working his way up the leaderboards of qualifying AL rookies. He sports the best walk percentage while he’s fourth in batting average and OPS, second in OBP and fifth in SLG.

While Cowser has had some on-and-off performances as the months have gone by, Wells started slow and started to take off come June. He has not looked back.

From June to August, Wells’ wRC+ was 118, 162 and then 164. His second-half stats have a lot to do with why he’s making such a strong push to be this year’s AL Rookie of the Year. Wells has Cowser topped in walks, ISO, AVG, OBP, SLG, wOBA, wRC+ and fWAR in the second half of this season.

On defense, Wells is also an outstanding defender, so there’s no edge for Cowser in this case. Amongst qualifying catchers with 500 or more innings behind the plate this year, Wells is fourth in the majors in Fielding Run Value, with 10. He trails only Patrick Bailey, Alejandro Kirk and Cal Raleigh.

This Race Will Come Down to the Wire

Followers of the game are lucky to have so many close races to monitor as the season winds down. The AL Rookie of the Year race is by no means already decided, and Cowser and Wells are going to take this thing down to the final days of the season.

Since both of these emerging stars are going to see time in the postseason this year, having them square off on the game’s biggest stage is going to be a real treat.