Odds to Win MLB’s 2026 MVP: Updated Trackers & Betting Lines (Sept. 1)

When the 2026 season began, the MVP picture already had some clear favorites, especially considering the players who have been hogging the trophy over the past few years.

Since the 2021 season, at least one of Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani has won the MVP in each season. Ohtani took home his first MVP back in 2021, winning opposite Bryce Harper (who took home his second MVP). In 2022, Judge beat Ohtani for the AL MVP, with Paul Goldschmidt winning on the National League side.

In 2023, it was back to Ohtani winning the AL MVP, this time paired with Ronald Acuña Jr., who made history by being the first player ever to hit at least 40 home runs and swipe at least 70 bases in the same season.

After sharing the American League with Judge for so many years, Ohtani changed leagues when he signed with the Dodgers prior to the 2024 season, giving both superstars a wide-open runway to win the MVP that year and into the foreseeable future.

Despite valiant efforts by shortstops Francisco Lindor and Bobby Witt Jr., it was Judge and Ohtani who again came home with the MVP hardware in 2024. They would keep things going again last year in 2025, with both Judge and Ohtani winning back-to-back MVP trophies in their respective leagues.

Once again, Judge and Ohtani entered the 2026 season as the heavy favorites to win, as Vegas essentially expects a healthy season from either to result in another MVP. But the favorites don’t always win – that’s why they still play 162 games. You never know when a new dark horse will emerge.

This page will be your guide to the updated betting odds throughout the season, as we follow along with what is sure to be a thrilling MVP race.

Let’s dive into the odds to see which superstars are making their presence felt so far in the 2026 AL and NL MVP races. All odds provided are courtesy of BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Current MLB MVP Odds: Top Contenders for 2026

Before we dive a little bit deeper into the races in each respective league, let’s just take a look at the current updated odds from BetMGM in the two MVP races.

2026 American League MVP Odds

When looking at the table above, you may be wondering, “What is implied probability?”

In sports betting, the implied probability is the conversion of betting odds into a percentage that is supposed to represent the likelihood of a given outcome. It is a different way to put the odds in perspective, so you understand why some bets are long shots to come in, while others are real favorites.

Each player’s implied probability is exclusive to themselves and their own odds to win the award. It is not one pie of 100% that is divided equally amongst all the candidates.

With his -5000 odds to win AL MVP, BetMGM is telling us that there is a 98.04% chance that Yordan Alvarez is going to win the award. However, that doesn’t impact anyone else’s chance to win it. Junior Caminero is given a 6.67% chance by BetMGM, followed by Bobby Witt Jr. at 1.49%.

MVP races are almost always a fluid thing, but there was never a doubt that Judge would come into the year leading the pack. Devastatingly, on June 5, the Yankees placed him on the 10-day IL with a stress fracture in his right rib cage, which has entirely knocked him out of the MVP race in 2026.

The back-to-back MVP should be returning within the upcoming September weeks, but overall, he has missed a significant enough amount of time that his year-long counting stats won’t get anywhere close to where they need to be in order for him to take home the award.

Judge noted after being placed on the IL that he had been playing through pain for about a month, sustaining the blow during a game on April 26 while making a dive in right field. Even afterwards, Judge still boasted a stellar 151 OPS+ before finally succumbing to the injury.

Looking at the rest of the field in the AL, notable changes in odds have come from players like Cal Raleigh, Yordan Alvarez, and Junior Caminero.

Coming into the season, Cal Raleigh had the third-best odds at +700 to win MVP, but after his extremely poor season to this point (86 OPS+), and a stint on the IL, BetMGM has taken him off the board, even while he’s finally starting to hit like his old self again.

On the contrary, Yordan Alvarez has torn the cover off the baseball all season long. With a ridiculous slash line of .317/.432/.605 (191 OPS+), he is simply running away from the field in the AL MVP race. From opening at +2800 to currently sitting as the heavy favorite at -5000, BetMGM believes the Alvarez hype is real, and why shouldn’t they?

The underlying data on Alvarez is bar-none elite, and although he doesn’t play exceptional defense, it’s not that crazy for a DH to win MVP nowadays anyway.

We’ll touch on others playing well in the American League, but barring devastating injury, this award is all but locked up.

Heading down south, the Tampa Bay Rays have surprised many around the league this year, and much of the credit can go towards breakout sensation Junior Caminero.

Although he plays questionable defense at third base and isn’t a great baserunner, Caminero boasts a .905 OPS and 37 home runs, good for 4.4 fWAR. The expected batting metrics love him too, with an xwOBA sitting at .365, good for the 92nd percentile.

Shifting towards the 2024 AL MVP runner-up, Bobby Witt Jr. has an incredible Savant page to back up his play, ranking in the 97th percentile in xwOBA (0.382) and the 100th percentile in OAA (24) and sprint speed (30.1).

Unfortunately, on July 22, the Royals placed Witt on the IL for the first time in his career with low back tightness. He only missed a couple of weeks, but that absence may have been enough to eliminate him from MVP contention, which is a shame because he posed the greatest threat to Alvarez after Judge went down earlier on for the award.

2026 National League MVP Odds

Compared to the American League MVP race, the National League version was a much more tense battle up until recently.

It was questioned by absolutely nobody when Shohei Ohtani opened the year as the heavy favorite to repeat as MVP. However, as we sit here at the start of September, the tides have turned, to say the least.

Ohtani’s first half in 2026 was special. Through 14 starts on the year, Ohtani had allowed 17 earned runs across 85.2 IP and seemed to be just dialed in on the bump. That was good for a 1.79 ERA! He also has an elite .908 OPS on the season to this point.

Sadly, due to a lingering knee issue, Ohtani has been sidelined from the bump since the All-Star break and currently has had his return to the mound pushed back with no new date set. His odds have dropped greatly since this issue flared up.

With the breakout sensation in Chicago making a ton of noise, this pitching injury could ultimately cost Ohtani.

The batted ball data Pete Crow-Armstrong is producing is not only backing up his 158 OPS+, but saying that it is definitely sustainable.

To supplement his bat, PCA plays a bar-none elite center field with 23 OAA, ranking in the 100th percentile. Using his great speed, he really has become a complete player and leads the entire league in fWAR with 9.3.

To give perspective on just how dominant PCA has been, the next closest player in MLB (Ohtani) has 6.7 fWAR.

It looked like it might be a close battle between Ohtani and PCA for the last few months, but as September begins, the odds say MVPete has locked this race up.

How to Follow the MLB MVP Odds

When betting on awards futures, timing is everything. Knowing when it is right to strike is half the battle in making sure you are finding value on the board. Right now, there is very little value in betting on Yordan Alvarez to win the MVP, because there is not much upside, but you also have to understand that it is not wise to bet against him either.

In the NL, PCA has really taken a strong hold as the odds leader. It seems as if the smart play at this point would be to sprinkle money on Ohtani MVP and then possibly cash out if the odds for both players pull closer. Ultimately, both MVP races seem over, barring catastrophic late-season injuries.