MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Friday, May 3, 2024
Wednesday was a disaster. We went 0-3, dropping 2.55 units. We built up a ton of momentum, then we lost a heartbreaker with the Rockies and had a terrible Wednesday.
I didn’t see anything I liked on the Thursday board, but I definitely did on this Friday. Let’s discuss my three favorite picks.
These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.
2024 Record: 37-42 (-6.07 U)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals @ 6:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Yusei Kikuchi vs. Patrick Corbin
It’s always scary with Patrick Corbin, but the books often inflate totals with him on the mound. The Blue Jays have an excellent arm and a rested bullpen. The Nationals bullpen has performed better than people think, and they are in a good rest spot. You factor in some sideways wind and two lackluster offenses; this total is too high.
We are 1-0 on Patrick Corbin’s unders. In six starts, the under has hit in four of them with Corbin on the mound. He’s faced teams like the Dodgers twice, and the game still went under. Now, he gets the Blue Jays, who are not nearly as impressive an offense.
I do like the Blue Jays offense against left-handed pitching overall, but not that much. Over the entire season, they sit with a 105 wRC+, good for 12th in the league. They should put up some runs today, I just don’t see them blowing it open.
They rank in the bottom half in power metrics, but they walk a lot, which is good for raising your wRC+. One of Corbin’s few fine qualities is his ability to limit the walks at a league-average rate.
The Blue Jays offense has scored six runs just once this year. While they may hit Corbin, they can’t hit a right-handed pitcher. The Nationals bullpen sneakily ranks 16th in ERA and it’s all right-handers. Even if Corbin allows four runs in five innings, I can see the runs stopping quick in the later innings for them.
Yusei Kikuchi will line up for the Blue Jays. He has been fantastic, posting a 2.97 ERA and 2.94 xERA. He has had lots of strikeouts and no walks, and he keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average rate. He’s facing a reeling Nationals lineup.
The thick of the Nationals lineup has run cold. They also have an 81 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season compared to a 97 wRC+ versus right-handers. We get them in their worse split when they are struggling offensively.
Although the Blue Jays’ bullpen has struggled this season overall, it is currently the most well-rested bullpen in the league. Nobody went yesterday, and only three middle relievers went the day before. Everyone is ready to go.
I definitely like the Blue Jays to win this game, but I have a hard time accepting this enormous price with a team I’m lower on then the market. The under has hit in nine of the Nationals’ last 15 home games, and I think we get another sleepy under here.
The Pick: Under 9 Runs (-115) Risk 1.15 Units
Miami Marlins vs. Oakland A’s @ 9:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Weathers vs. JP Sears
The Marlins are facing a left-handed pitcher, which means it’s time to fade them. The Marlins have only one win this season under their belt when facing a left-handed pitcher.
THEY ONLY HAVE ONE WIN. IT’S MAY 3.
This write-up will be short because we simply have to fade them against left-handed pitchers. Their 63 wRC+ against left-handed pitching is good for the second-worst in the league. They even scored seven runs off Corbin and still lost because the bullpen is a disaster.
Six of Miami’s eight relief pitchers have thrown 23 pitches or more over the last three days. They had multiple extra-inning games over a three-game set, which has wiped out the bullpen.
The Marlins also have to travel across the country without an off-day. This is a bad spot for a bad team.
JP Sears isn’t great, but he’s a left-hander. He has a better xERA than Weathers, which is enough for me. He’s not going to dominate by any stretch, but he’ll keep us in this ball game.
Once we get to the A’s bullpen, that’s where we see a massive advantage. The baseball world is starting to learn about the two-headed monster the A’s have back there with Lucas Erceg and Mason Miller. Austin Adams and TJ McFarland are also solid arms, and everyone is rested after the off-day yesterday.
The A’s are also in their worst split, putting up an 88 wRC+ against lefties, and I’m really not a fan of Sears, but I’m a huge fan of fading the Marlins. That’s why I limited it to a risk of only one unit, but one unit must be played.
The Pick: Oakland A’s ML (-130) Risk 1 Unit
Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Charlie Morton vs. Gavin Stone
Game of the day! Series of the weekend! Let’s bet on game one.
As soon as I saw this line, I knew who I would be on. The Dodgers bats are red-hot, and the Braves bats are not. That can be the difference in a series between two of baseball’s best teams.
Over the entire season, the Dodgers offense has been objectively better. They rank number one against right-handers in wRC+, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and SLG. They got on base and hit for power. They are the best lineup in baseball, and they are in their preferred split against right-handers.
The Braves have a top-five offense against righties. They are better against left-handed starters (115 wRC+ vs. RHP, 123 wRC+ vs. LHP). We get them in their lesser split here. They are obviously great overall, but they’ve been lackluster lately.
In the last two weeks, the Dodgers have ranked first against righties in every metric. Shocker, they are on a heater offensively.
The Braves’ 71 wRC+ places them 27th in the league. It’s shocking, really, as Acuna looks completely off. That big of an offense discrepancy has me immediately looking at the Dodgers.
Charlie Morton is the better pitcher than Gavin Stone, but Stone is starting to really find it. He had a few rough starts to start his second season, but he pitched really well against the Padres, got pulled for command issues against the Mets, and then came back and dominated the Blue Jays.
It’s really hard to barrell Gavin Stone. He sits in the 82nd percentile (fantastic) in Barrel% and Hard-Hit Rate. As long as he doesn’t walk the world, he should be able to limit damage against a Braves offense that isn’t seeing the ball as well as usual. He actually has a lower walk prop than Morton, so if Stone wins the free pass battle, we should cruise.
Charlie Morton is the better pitcher in this matchup, but he has the tougher matchup, and the Dodgers have hit him hard.
Charlie Morton has logged 182 PA against the Dodgers’ current roster, posting a .343 xwOBA and a strikeout rate below 20%. Mookie Betts is 13-39, and Freddie Freeman is 10-20. Between them, they have nine extra-base hits, four of which are home runs.
Will Smith is 2-14, but he does have a .403 xwOBA because he crushes Morton, but in a small sample, the ball has been caught. With how hot he is, I bet he gets one to land today.
Morton has a 4.22 ERA in four starts at Dodger Stadium, but he’s never faced a Dodgers offense that was this good.
I don’t see an edge in the bullpens. Both the Braves and Dodgers are rested, and their bullpen ERAs are very similar. I think the Dodgers will win in the later innings as well as early with how hot the offense is.
We also have a strong system backing the Dodgers. When two teams play each other with a 60% win rate or higher, you take the favorite. The Dodgers fit this criteria, and those teams are 137-66, good for a 17% ROI. Just this season, that system is 11-7 for a 9% ROI.
The Dodgers are the hotter team, and while they had a long road trip, they had a day off to adjust yesterday. Take the home team to get the job done.
The Pick: Dodgers ML (-110) Risk 1.1 Units
Written by
Peter is the Co-Founder and Director of Content Strategy of Justbaseball.com and the Co-Host of the Just Baseball Show.