It’s been a little bit before we stepped back on the diamond. In the meantime, we’ve been collecting units from our futures and the NFL. The variance in day-to-day betting this time of the year in MLB is insane, so I’ve hesitated to jump back in unless I loved a play.

This is a juicy underdog that is well worth the price. We are backing an old friend.

2024 Record: 114-116 (-6.67 U)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies @ 8:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: TBD (–) vs. Cal Quantrill (4.72 ERA)

This is a spot play. I won’t be able to explain why the Rockies have an edge based on recent splits or how they match up against the opposing pitcher. We don’t even know who is pitching for the Dodgers today, and we also don’t know what their lineup will look like.

Last night, the Dodgers clinched the NL West for the 11th time in the past 12 years against the Padres. After locking down the division against your rival, a boozy celebration was in order. It’s a massive letdown spot to head on the road after an off-day to play the Rockies. Not only is it generally a letdown spot the day after a team clinches, but it gets even worse when you have to adjust to altitude.

Generally speaking, taking the Rockies in game one of a home series is a good idea. The Rockies are 275-226 for a 55% hit rate. It makes sense; when the Rockies are adjusted, and the other team isn’t, they’ll have the leg up.

We know that Freddie Freeman will not play in this game, as he was seen in a walking boot during yesterday’s game. Will the Dodgers rest Ohtani or Mookie Betts? It’s unclear, but even if they do play, it’s a good spot for Colorado.

Quantrill’s quality of contact numbers against the Dodger’s healthy lineup is solid. Through 125 PA, the Dodgers have a .328 xwOBA, a .252 xBA, and a .403 xSLG. Those are all average to slightly above-average metrics. Quantrill has faced the Dodgers three times this year and the results have all been the same; about five innings while allowing three runs. He did exactly that against the healthy Dodgers in Coors Field, where Quantrill’s ERA is better (4.37 ERA at home, 5.04 ERA on the road).

In September, the Rockies had the highest hard-hit rate at home and the eighth-highest OPS. They can hit, and they are coming off a solid offensive performance. I think they catch the Dodgers sleeping today.

The season wouldn’t feel complete without tailing Quantrill one last time. Take us home, Cal.

The Pick: Rockies ML (+165) Risk 1 Unit

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.