The Giants! We’ve won four out of our last five plays, and it should be five for five, but we won’t discuss that.

We backed Logan Webb at home against a lefty on Wednesday, and it paid off, as the Giants scored five against Framber Valdez. The game was never in doubt, as the Giants bullpen trio shut the door after Webb exited.

I didn’t like the board yesterday, so I didn’t play anything. This is the best way to get our units back: we are focusing on the best play possible and building slowly. We still have a long season ahead of us, and we will build it brick by brick.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.

2024 Record: 61-72 (-13.37 U)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Ranger Suarez vs. Kyle Bradish

When two elite teams play each other, the books often show their hands with who they think will win. We’ve used and won on this system: “Take the Favorite When Two Good Teams Play Each Other.” When two teams with a .600 winning percentage or higher play each other, the favorite is 139-67 (17% ROI). This season, the favorite is 13-8 (9% ROI).

I initially looked into this one to fade the Phillies due to their unfortunate spot. They had a series in London, flew back to Boston for a three-game set where they didn’t play well; now they have another road series against an Orioles team waiting at home for them. Three straight road series, including one overseas, make the spot for the Orioles the best of the day.

The Orioles are the kings of game one. They had a streak of 106 series not being swept, and a big reason is they typically win game one. Since 2022, the Orioles are 64-29 (68%) in game one of the series.

Ranger Suarez is the better pitcher, but Bradish is elite and has a better track record versus the current opponent. Also, if we look at xERA and SIERA, Bradish has posted a 2.18 xERA and 2.88 SIERA, compared to Ranger, with a 2.62 xERA and 2.86 SIERA. Looking deeper under the hood, there is no real edge.

Bradish has been better against the Phillies than Ranger against the Orioles. They aren’t large samples, but in 28 PA, Bradish has a crazy low .216 xwOBA against with a .192 opponent batting average. Through 34 PA against the current Orioles roster, Ranger’s xwOBA is .321 with a .250 opponent average.

The Orioles also have a better offense against lefties than the Phillies do against righties. The Orioles have posted a 132 wRC+ against southpaws this season, ranking second to the Dodgers. The Phillies have a 107 wRC+ against righties, the seventh-best in the game. The Orioles have a 149 wRC+ against lefties at home, while the Phillies have a 107 wRC+ against righties on the road.

Over the last two weeks, the Orioles offense has a 135 wRC+ compared to the Phillies at 97. The Orioles have a clear advantage on offense here.

The bullpens are also a wash. The Orioles have Cano (2.37 ERA), Kimbrel (2.59 ERA), Akin (4.13 ERA), and Webb (1.72 ERA) ready to go. We might not need them all, but we have solid relievers when Bradish exits.

The Phillies have their four great arms ready: Alvarado (3.41 ERA), Hoffman (0.90 ERA), Strahm (0.67 ERA), and Dominguez (4.76 ERA).

If the Phillies get the lead, it will be tough for the Orioles to come back, but not impossible. If the game is tied when the starters exit, we have the home team with no edge in the bullpens. If the Orioles have the lead, they have the arms to close the door.

The Phillies are 19-12 on the road, while the Orioles are 23-12 at home. The Orioles have a better run differential this year than the Phillies, and they are 20-8 against teams over .500. The Phillies have had a much easier schedule, only playing 12 games against teams with a record over .500.

I can’t bring myself to put a lot on this play considering I am a huge Ranger Suarez fan. But we must play the Orioles due to the spot, trends, and how each team matches up in this one. I’d take the Orioles up to -135.

The Pick: Orioles ML (-125) Risk to win 0.5 Units