One play, one winner! We took the Brewers as an underdog against the Cardinals, and they won 7-1. It was never close, as Gray had his worst start of the year, and the Brewers pitching shut the door.

We need way more of those kinds of picks. Let’s do it again today with three picks, two in the same game.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.

2024 Record: 44-53 (-10.45 U)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Lance Lynn vs. Robert Gasser

We are going right back to it. I watched every second of yesterday’s game, and I think the Cardinals are broken. You lose your best hitter, and your division rival gains back their best hitter. I have downgraded the Cardinals to a bottom-five team in baseball right now. The Brewers are a top-five team right now and have the advantage in all facets of the game today.

Lance Lynn gets the ball for the Cardinals. Before we even talk about him, his earned run line is at 3.5, with a 15.5 pitching outs line juiced towards the under. If I had not learned who Lance Lynn was, I would assume he would get hit today.

It’s a good time to fade him, as his ERA sits at 3.28. Every single one of his ERA estimators has him in the mid-four. The only thing he does right now at an above-average rate is limit hard contact, but he has yet to be able to do that against Milwaukee. Through 64 PA, Lynn is rocking a .362 xwOBA with a .548 xSLG.

Similarly to yesterday, Yelich is only 4-18, but he’s rocking a .354 xwOBA. Expect his balls in play to fall in the outfield instead of getting caught. Jake Bauers is a player to watch, as he’s 5-10 with three doubles.

The Brewers’ offense against right-handers is fantastic. In the last two weeks, they have the seventh-best wRC+ against right-handers at 122. Over the entire season, they rank third in wRC+ at 123, just behind the Dodgers and the Yankees. This is an elite offense against righties, and today, they get one due for regression.

Robert Gasser makes his big league debut for the Brewers today. We really like him over here at Just Baseball. Here’s a breakdown from prospect guru Aram Leighton.

After struggling a bit with his command following his promotion to Triple-A in 2022, Gasser cleaned things up in 2023, with an impressive 20% K-BB rate. In a vacuum, the stuff does not jump off of the page, but including both fastballs, Gasser has four viable big league offerings that all play up thanks to his funkiness and deception. Gasser is a high-probability back-end starter.

He’s a funky lefty with a strong pedigree at every minor-league level. He deserves this promotion and is ready for big-league lineups. He has to keep the ball in the yard. Luckily for him, the Cardinals rank in the bottom ten of all power metrics against lefties, both lately and over the season. Contreras was slugging .708 against lefties, by far the most on the Cardinals.

The fact that he’s a lefty makes me even more confident. The Cardinals, with Willson Contreras, are the third-worst offense by wRC+ against lefties this year, only above the Marlins and White Sox. Over the last two weeks, they have a 36 wRC+. That is breathtakingly bad, and that includes all games with Willson Contreras. I can’t believe they are this bad, but they are.

As stated yesterday, I like both of these bullpens. Both have their key arms ready to go. I could go first five, but when I have the better offense, I like to soak up all the runs I can get in the later innings.

The Cardinals are 1-9 in their last ten games. They lost both games to the Mets and a series to the White Sox. The Brewers swept these Cardinals by a score of 16-6 last series. The Brewers are the far better team at home, and Yelich just injected them with life. This would be a two-unit play if we had more data on Gasser.

The Pick: Brewers ML (-115) Risk 1.5 Units

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets @ 7:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Charlie Morton vs. Jose Quintana

The under has hit in 14 of the last 18 Braves games. I wanted to go back to it initially, but as soon as I did, I immediately thought the under wasn’t hitting. I did some research, and now I’m fully convinced this is the first over in a while. Both teams are in their better split, and the last time these two teams played, runs were constantly crossing the plate.

Here’s a crazy profitable system that doesn’t come up much. “Braves Overs After Shutout Wins”. After the Braves pitch a shutout, the next game goes over the total at an 80% rate. It’s a small sample, totaling 40 games, but the over is 31-8-1. It’s bonkers, but it’s not the main reason I’m taking this bet.

Charlie Morton is a pitcher the Mets have seen a billion times. He’s racked up 275 PA against this current Mets roster. That’s over years and years, and this is the worst version of Charlie Morton to date. The Mets already tagged him for four runs in his last start over five innings, and I have no reason to believe they can’t get close to that again. Charlie Morton has exceeded 1.5 earned runs in four of his last five games (2.8 earned runs/game average).

Morton’s stuff is down across the board, and his curveball whiff rate has dropped 14% since last year. He’s surviving on soft contact, but the Mets are hitting the ball hard. They rank sixth in hard-hit rate over the past two weeks. The Mets have seen better versions of Morton, and I think they keep hitting him today.

The Mets’ offense is in its better split against righties. The Mets have the ninth wRC+ (105) against righties this season. Over the last two weeks, they have a 100 wRC+ against righties. I wouldn’t say I’m in love with this offense, but it’s solid and should result in two or three runs against Morton.

Jose Quintana gets the ball for the Mets (5.95 xERA). The better version of Quintana has been hit hard by these Braves, as he’s rocking a .360 xwOBA through 179 PA. The Braves offense hasn’t been able to time up righties, but lefties haven’t had the same issues.

They rank third in Hard-Hit rate against left-handers this season and ninth in wRC+ against lefties (115). Over their last 150 PA against lefties, they have a 112 wRC+, 12% above the league average. He threw against the Braves already, allowing three runs over 5.1 innings. I expect much of the same here.

Both bullpens are very solid and rested. However, these two teams know each other so well that I want to continue following their above-average offenses throughout the game.

There is supposed to be rain and wind in this one, so the total is lower than it should be. The wind is projected to blow in at 8 MPH from right field. Most of the power bats in both lineups hit from the right side, so they shouldn’t have any problems leaving the park. Bad weather is not taking me off this.

The Pick: First 5 Innings Over 4.5 (+105), Full Game Over 8 (+100) Risk 0.5 Units on each

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